DFS NASCAR: AAA 400 Track Breakdown

It’s that time of the year for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover International Speedway. Dover is known as the “Monster Mile” for being one of the trickiest shorter courses to get around. Points can be stolen here by virtue of taking advantage of position differential points as you will notice several drivers have a history of moving up through the field successfully. Another trend to notice is the laps led corresponding to average starting position. Looking at both of these will be helpful for us to decide on who to play in our lineups this week.

Let’s take a look at the data for Dover.

Key Drivers on 1-Mile Tracks

Drivers to watch

Jimmie Johnson-Jimmie has been the most decorated driver in recent races at Dover with two wins and three top-5’s in the last two years. He has also led the second most laps at the track with 295 run out front of the pack. He is also the second best driver on 1-mile length tracks over that same two year span. He is the most expensive driver once again but he could pay off if he has one of his patented performances.

Kevin Harvick-Here we go once more with Harvick, but it’s impossible to turn down his production for his price level ($10,400 this week). He is by far and away the best driver on 1-mile tracks with five wins, nine top-5’s and nine top-10’s in the last 13 races split between Dover, Phoenix, and New Hampshire. He also has an astounding 2,066 laps led (the next closest being Brad Keselowski with 486) and 693 of those have come at Dover in the last four races. He will be a heavy play once again but that doesn’t matter when he’s producing an average 71.75 FPPR.

Chase Elliot-The rookie has a very good year to this point with eight top-10 finishes in 12 races and has put up better than 40 FP in every one but two races. He doesn’t have any experience at Dover at the Sprint Cup level but has raced there five times between Xfinity and truck series stops, finishing 6^th and 7^th there last year in two Xfinity races. His ownership percentages have been climbing but with good reason, and that should be the case again this week as he looks to repeat is good performance from Phoenix.

Kyle Larson-Larson has been a big time hit and miss driver this season but he is headlining into race week at one of his best tracks. He has the highest average finish of anyone in the last two years at 7.25 and has a top-5 and three top-10 finishes to his credit in that time. While he is a bit more expensive than I’d like to see, he is worth a shot in GPP formats given his solid history at the Monster Mile.

Aric Almirola-He may seem like an odd choice given that he has no top-10 finishes this year in 13 races and has only put up better than 30 points twice this season, but Dover is a track he loves to race at and the numbers bear that out. He has been one of the top-five drivers at the track in the last two Sprint Cup seasons with two top-5’s and two top-10’s in the four races and owns the best positional difference at 9.3 (21.8 AVG Start, 12.5 AVG Finish). He is a candidate for GPP lineups this week as he offers the boom or bust potential that thrives in that format.