2018 NASCAR DFS Payline Analysis: Auto Club 400

So the streak ended for Kevin Harvick after he essentially crashed himself out of the race when he tried to come down on Kyle Larson early in the race. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t a dominant performance however. Martin Truex Jr. locked down his first win of the season with a performance that included leading 125 of the 200 laps. Unfortunately, the winning streak for the lineups also came to an end but let’s analyze them and see what could’ve been done better.

$25K Hot Rod (3 entry max)

Entry Fee - $3

Total prizes - $25,000  First place - $3,000

Total entries – 9,908  Places paid – 2,420

Top score – 355.5 

Money line – 271.25 

Fantasy Alarm lineups – 267.75 GPP1; 246 GPP2; 182.25 Cash

This nice sized GPP contest used all 37 drivers with the lowest-owned being Timmy Hill who was on 0.53% of lineups (or 52 out of 9,908). The highest-owned driver is not a shock being Kevin Harvick with his domination of late and showing a fast car in practice in the long run. His -10.5 points were on 45.07% of rosters in this contest. Kyle Busch (43.06%) and Clint Bowyer (41.77%) round out the drivers who broke the 40-percent barrier, both of whom put up 48 or more points this week, with Busch leading 62 laps in total. Three other drivers were in the 30s with Daniel Suarez leading the way at nearly 38 percent and then Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott at practically the same ownership, 31.83 and 31.81 respectively. The driver with best pop for their ownership was Brad Keselowski with a 50.5-point race on 10.88% of rosters. Meanwhile my favorite cheap play for the week, Cole Whitt, put up 25 points for 10.37% of rosters. However the highest-scoring driver for the week, Martin Truex Jr. (111.75), was on just 21.66% rosters, and not surprisingly, they were all at the top of the scoring lineups.

$20K Brake Pad (Single entry)

Entry Fee - $4

Total prizes - $20,000  First place - $1,000

Total entries – 5,935  Places paid – 1,605

Top score – 355.5 

Money line – 265.25 

Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 267.75 GPP1; 246 GPP2

The 5,900 some-odd entrants in this one makes it just over half the size of the previously discussed one, however the percentages are remarkably similar to the other contest. The first difference however is that Kyle Busch was the highest-owned driver at 44.57% with Kevin Harvick just behind at 43.94%. Like the other one, Clint Bowyer is the only other driver over 40 percent owned at 42.71. Once again the same three drivers are the only ones to be between 30-40 percent with Daniel Suarez at nearly 37% and the teammates, Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott at 31 and 30.95 percent. Martin Truex Jr. was actually on fewer lineups this time around at just over 20% and Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, A.J. Allmendinger, and Denny Hamlin all being higher-owned in the 20s than him. The ownership for Cole Whitt fell by over 2% as he was on 8.29% of rosters and Brad Keselowski fell slightly too at 10%. If you wanted a high point total, starting with Truex was almost a must with just 14 of the top-300 starting with someone other than the points leader.

$5 Double-Up (Single entry)

Entry Fee - $5

Total prizes - $7,000  1^st-700^th - $10

Total entries – 1,609  Places paid – 700

Top score- 351 

Money line – 236.75 

Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 182.25 Cash; 185 Cash w/ pivot

Being that it is March Madness, there are bound to be some surprises this time of year. One of them is that Daniel Suarez was the highest-owned driver in this contest at 50.16%, the only driver to crack the 50% barrier in any of these contests. After that there was little separation between the four drivers, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Clint Bowyer. Each of those drivers slotted between 48.6 and 46.18 percent owned in this bigger double-up field. It was not a surprise to see Martin Truex Jr. fall in the ownership rate given that he was the pole sitter in a cash game, but he did see a steep drop down to 14.17% in this one. Another surprise in this contest was to see Kasey Kahne up to 33% owned compared to the low 20s where he was in the GPP fields. More than half the 37-car field (20 drivers) were owned in the single digits with Brad Keselowski in the middle of that group at 6.22 percent. All 37 drivers were played in the cash game, but in the smaller ones not every driver was used on at least one roster simply because of fewer combinations being utilized. For example, in a 23-entrant $5 double-up, 24 drivers were used and five had ownerships higher than 52%, including three at nearly 70%.

Optimal Lineup

Here is what the best possible scoring lineup looks like this week:

This is the first week of five races so far this season that at least one person put together the perfect lineup. Both winners in the GPPs I wrote about hit this lineup perfectly. William Byron is the only real surprise on this list as I had written about five of the six in my playbook for this race. He did have a fast car and capitalized on position differential to really rack up the 43.25-point day. Overall there were five 50+-point scorers this race, mostly because so many fast cars started in the back, and three of them are on this roster, with Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin being left off because at their price points, there were better options (i.e. Truex and Busch for Keselowski and Johnson for Hamlin).