Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros

Houston Astros -200

Game Total: 7.5

Game Play Predictions

Boston Red Sox

  • The Red Sox rank 1st in team batting average (.273), OPS (.827), runs (247), home runs (71) and RBI (236) against right-handed pitching this season.
  • Justin Verlander ranks 4th in the majors with 98 strikeouts but the Red Sox have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
  • Boston will be without Dustin Pedroia, who was placed on the disabled list Saturday. Pedroia joins Mookie Betts, who went on the DL Friday.
  • Andrew Benintendi is Boston’s hottest hitter right now, going 12-for-27 with two home runs and eight RBI over the last seven days.
  • J.D. Martinez hit his league-leading 19th home run Friday, connecting against Gerrit Cole in the fourth inning.
  • Mitch Moreland also homered against Cole on Friday. He has a 1.044 OPS against right-handed pitchers and he is 11-for-35 in his career against Justin Verlander
  • Rafael Devers has struggled of late, going 5-for-24 with seven total bases, two runs, zero RBI, eight strikeouts and zero walks over the last week.

Houston Astros

  • The Astros were the league’s top hitting team against southpaws last season.  This year they rank fourth in team batting average (.273) and seventh in team OPS (.782).
  • Houston has a tough matchup in David Price, who is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 27 strikeouts over his last four starts.
  • Houston has the 11th lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season.
  • Astros leadoff hitter George Springer  is hitting .339 with an OPS of 1.072 against left-handed pitching this season.
  • Alex Bregman is really struggling against southpaws this season after crushing them in 2017.  He is also hitting just .154 over the last seven days.
  • Jose Altuve is 8-for-20 with three walks and five strikeouts against David Price. Altuve is 15-for-30 over the last week.
  • Carlos Correa is 3-for-7 with two home runs over his last two games.  He is hitting .313 with an OPS of .903 against southpaws this season.

Pre-Game Props

Q1: Both teams record a strikeout in the 1st inning.

YES. Justin Verlander has 11.65 K/9 his first time through a lineup. David Price has a 10.88 K/9 the first time through the order. YES.

Q2: Either team records a 3 up, 3 down 1st Inning.

I think it would be an upset if a Boston runner reaches base, but David Price is certainly capable of a 1-2-3 inning as well. YES.

Q3: Justin Verlander throws more pitches than David Price in the 1st inning.

Verlander is the better pitcher facing the weaker lineup. I can’t believe NO is getting better odds. I probably would have taken it anyway.

Both teams record a base hit in the 1st inning.

Q4: A BOS batter reaches base safely with 2 strikes in the 1st inning.

I think BOS probably goes down in order, so this is a NO for me.

Q5: Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve record or assist on an out in the 1st inning.

Justin Verlander has a 29.3 percent groundball rate this season. Even if multiple Red Sox put the ball in play, it will probably be in the air, so I’m going NO.

Q6: Every BOS batter in the 1st inning swings and misses at least once.

Verlander has a 13.1 swinging strike percentage, so swings and misses are a lot more rare than you may think. NO.

Q7: Andrew Benintendi sees at least five pitches.

Justin Verlander has a 47.2 percent zone rate, and Andrew Benintendi has swung at 65.7 percent of pitches inside the strike zone this season. Unless Verlander is uncharacteristically wild, or Benintendi fouls a couple of pitches off, NO seems like a good bet.