Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs -165

Games Total: 7.5

Game Play Predictions

Chicago Cubs

  • The Cubs will face rookie Nick Kingham for the second time this season. Kingham allowed three earned runs on eight hits, two walks, and four strikeouts in 5.2 innings against Chicago on May 29.
  • On the season, Kingham has an impressive 1.00 WHIP and 6.00 K/BB rate, but his 1.24 HR/9 have led to a 4.03 ERA in 29.0 innings across five starts.
  • Pittsburgh’s 4.39 bullpen ERA ranks 24th in baseball.
  • Javier Baez leads the National League in RBI despite a paltry .284 OBP. Baez is tied for second in the NL in in home runs.
  • The Cubs have three of the top 13 hitters in the National League in slugging percentage. In addition to Javier Baez (.531 slugging), Kris Bryant (.514) and Kyle Schwarber (.506) have shown impressive power again this season.
  • Despite going 0-for-3 in the first game of this series, Anthony Rizzo is 7-for-19 with two home runs over the last seven days.
  • Jason Heyward, Wilson Contreras, and Kris Bryant have been just as hot; each are batting .348 or better over the last week.
  • The Cubs have won three in-a-row and 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Cubs are 18-10 in day games and 18-12 at home this season.
  • Despite their reputation as a free-swinging group, Cubs hitters have the eighth lowest strikeout rate (20.9%) in MLB. They are also third in MLB with a 9.7 percent walk rate.
  • The Cubs’ .338 wOBA against right-handed pitchers ranks fifth in MLB.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • The Pirates are 5-15 since May 17, and Friday’s loss to the Cubs dropped Pittsburgh under .500 for the first time all season.
  • Jon Lester has a 2.44 ERA, which would tie the lowest mark of his 12-year MLB career. That being said, Lester’s 4.14 FIP and 4.40 xFIP are well above his career averages. Lester’s 2.44 K/BB rate is his lowest since 2012, but he has gotten by thanks to a .254 BABIP allowed and an 84.2 percent LOB%.
  • The Cubs rank third in MLB in bullpen ERA at 2.62.
  • The Pirates have the fifth lowest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitchers at 19.5 percent. They also rank seventh with a .337 wOBA against lefties.
  • Jordy Mercer is batting .296 with four doubles and a home run in 27 career at-bats against Jon Lester. Mercer is 4-for-10 over his last three starts.
  • Sean Rodriguez is batting .232/.333/.500 in 66 plate appearances against Jon Lester. Rodriguez has a .448 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season.
  • David Freese is 9-for-29 with 10 strikeouts and zero home runs against Lester.

 

Pre-Game Props

Q1: Either team reaches scoring position.

The Cubs are very good against righties, and Pittsburgh is very good against lefties. These are two solid pitchers, but I think at least one of them gets into trouble right away. YES.

Q2: Both teams combine to record at least 2 groundouts in the 1st inning.

Jon Lester’s groundball rate is down to 37.2 percent this season, while Kingham’s is 37.8 percent. I like the odds for NO, especially if they combine for two or three strikeouts.

Q3: Nick Kingham throws more pitches than Jon Lester in the 1st inning.

Lester has thrown 16.34 pitches per inning compared to 15.6 for Kingham. Lester has allowed a .346 OBP the first time through the order compared to .245 the second time, and as any Cubs fan can attest, he often struggles to get through the first inning before settling down. YES.

Q4: PIT records at least 4 plate appearances in the 1st inning.

If Lester is going to throw more pitches than Kingham, Pittsburgh will probably get at least one runner on base. YES.

Q5: A. Russell or K. Bryant record or assist on an out in the 1st inning.

Having a lefty on the mount probably increases the chances of a groundball to the left side of the infield, but with Lester’s penchant for flyballs, I’m going with NO.

Q6: Every PIT batter in the 1st inning sees at least 3 pitches.

All it takes is one batter who swings at the first pitch and puts it in play. Lester throws enough strikes and his stuff isn’t exactly unhittable, so I’m saying NO.

Q7: Jordy Mercer walks or singles.

Mercer has been swinging a hot bat lately, and he is batting .296 against Lester. When you add in Lester’s 8.7 percent walk rate this season, I like Mercer’s chances of getting on base. I just hope he doesn’t hit a double. YES