Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs -118

Games Total: 8.5

Game Play Predictions

Chicago Cubs

  • This Cubs have swung at 46.9 percent of pitches this season, good for 10th in MLB.

  • The Cubs have a 76.9 percent contact rate, 18th among MLB teams.

  • Iván Nova has allowed a .274 batting average against this season, fourth highest among qualified starters.

  • Nova has allowed 1.45 HR/9 this season, 14th among qualified starters.

  • Nova has a 2.84 ERA in two starts against the Cubs this season.

  • Anthony Rizzo is 4-for-10 with zero strikeouts against Iván Nova

  • Wilson Contreras is 4-for-8 in his career against Nova.

  • The Cubs have lost each of Jon Lester ’s last three starts.

  • Javier Báez is 3-for-9 since moving up to the leadoff spot Tuesday.

  • Wilson Contreras has struggled of late, going 2-for-16 over the last seven days.

  • The Cubs have a .324 wOBA on the road, good for 10th in MLB.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Opponents are batting .254 against Jon Lester , 25th among qualified starters.

  • Lefties have actually been better against Lester this season, with a .271 batting average and a .375 wOBA.

  • Lester has 3.48 BB/9 this season. Only 17 qualified starters have been worse.

  • Lester’s 1.47 HR/9 is 11th worst among qualified starters.

  • Lester has a 10.32 ERA since the All-Star break.

  • He allowed eight earned runs in 3.2 innings in his last start.

  • Lester is 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA in four starts against Pittsburgh this season.

  • The Pirates have a 22.0 percent strikeout rate and an 8.5 percent walk rate against lefties this season.

  • Adam Frazier has a .345 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and he is batting .389 over his last 10 games.

  • David Freese is 11-for-34 in his career against Jon Lester .

  • Freese has been good lately as well, batting 8-for-18 over the last seven days.

  • Starling Marte is 7-for-22 with zero home runs against Lester.

  • Marte has not been good lately, going 3-for-20 over the last seven days.

  • Elias Diaz has been on fire of late, going 7-for-14 with two home runs over the last week.

 

Pre-Game Props

  1. Jon Lester and Iván Nova Combine to throw 28 or more pitches in the 1st inning.

YES. Iván Nova is averaging 16.01 pitches per inning this season, and Jon Lester is averaging 17.28. It would take a much higher number or a much lower payout to talk me out of saying Yes.

  1. A batter from both teams takes the first three pitches they see in the 1st Inning.

Iván Nova is around the plate an awful lot, and the Cubs are pretty free-swinging, so if anyone takes three straight pitches, it will probably be the Pirates. Jon Lester has a 58.0 first pitch strike percentage and he has thrown 41.5 percent of his pitches in the strike zone. Also, opponents have swung at just 43.0 percent of his pitches this season. The Pirates rank eighth with a 47.7 percent swing percentage. The payout is tempting but I’m still saying NO.

  1. Either team records an out within the first 4 pitches of their half of the 1st inning.

Iván Nova has averaged 3.74 pitches per plate appearance this season while Jon Lester has averaged 4.06. It is possible both innings begin with long at-bats, but it seems far more likely one of the leadoff hitters will get out in four or fewer pitches. YES

  1. A CHC batter fouls off consecutive pitches in the 1st Inning.

YES. This has the best payout among the pre-game props, and I have watched enough Cubs games to know it seems like Jayson Heyward and Anthony Rizzo foul off back-to-back pitches in every single at-bat. Iván Nova throws a lot of strikes but doesn’t miss a lot of bats, which makes him the perfect pitcher for this sort of prop.

  1. 2 or more CHC batters reach a 1-2 count in the 1st Inning.

NO. The Cubs rank 21st in strikeout rate against righties, and Iván Nova has just 6.37 K/9, 10th lowest among qualified starters. I’m not predicting a lot of two-strike counts.

  1. 3 or more CHC batters take a called strike in the 1st inning.

NO. Opponents have swung at 70.4 percent of Iván Nova ’s pitches in the strike zone this season, and the Cubs have swung at 67.7 percent of pitches in the strike zone. Iván Nova has thrown just 43.1 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this season. Based on those numbers, if Nova throws 16 pitches in the first inning (his average is 16.01), we would expect the Cubs to take roughly 2.1 called strikes.

  1. The CHC leadoff batter swings and misses.

YES. It is nearly inconceivable that Javier Báez would go an entire at-bat without a swing and miss. The 3.5x payout is pretty nice as well.