To be honest, in the games where I have my favorite MLB player props, there are some significant weather concerns that could impact the game’s status. So, I’d be remiss to not mention the fact that you’ll want to be checking our weather report, especially for the Mets-Yankees showdown, leading up to game time. The New York Yankees have gone ice cold of late, and now Max Scherzer will look to torture this lineup further. Not many Yankees have good BvP numbers against Scherzer, which doesn’t bode well for their chances this evening. Paul Goldschmidt faces a left-hander, which has worked out for him nearly more often than not this season, and then I’m looking to Julio Urías against the Milwaukee Brewers. I’m looking at these three player props over at Underdog Fantasy, but if you are interested in increasing your multiplier even more, I added two other leans that I have for tonight’s Major League Baseball action. Here are my favorite MLB player props over at Underdog Fantasy for Monday, August 22.

Max Scherzer OVER 7 Strikeouts

Bad weather in New York is the only thing that could stop Scherzer from hitting the over here. The recent struggles of the New York Yankees are well-documented, but let’s highlight them again. Here are some of the metrics for the Yankees over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching, along with their league rank in said category:

 

NYY

MLB League Rank

Batting Average

.180

29th

OPS

.521

30th

Strikeout Rate

28.7%

29th

wOBA

.235

30th

wRC+

51

30th


Beyond the struggles as a team of late against righties, look at some notable BvP numbers against Scherzer for some Bronx Bombers:

Add that all up and these six players combine for a .188 batting average and 28.8 percent strikeout rate. Scherzer has an 11.82 K/9 and 33.6 percent strikeout rate on the road this season, and he should feast on a struggling New York lineup.

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Goldschmidt is 2-for-5 in his career against Drew Smyly, but the bigger number here is that Goldschmidt is hitting a ridiculous .435 with a .568 wOBA and 1.375 OPS OPS against southpaws in 2022. He’s also hitting a cool .500 with a .962 SLG over his last 26 at-bats, and he has at least three total bases in five of his last six contests. Smyly has allowed a .276 batting average, .465 SLG, and 1.47 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season, and while his numbers look pretty good over his last four starts, keep in mind that he’s faced San Francisco, Washington, and Cincinnati during that stretch. 

Julio Urías OVER 92.5 Pitch Count

Given how much Milwaukee has punched out recently against southpaws, I am really intrigued by his line of seven strikeouts today, too. However, I’m going to go with the pitch count, as he’s surpassed the 92.5 pitch mark in two of his last three starts, and typically hangs right around the 90 pitch mark. The Brewers have an insane 34.1 percent strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two weeks, which is the second-worst in Major League Baseball, but they also have an 8.7 percent walk rate, which is slightly above league average during this stretch. For the season as a whole, the Brewers as a team see the most pitches per plate appearance on average (4.07), so while Urias could still carve them up, given their struggles against southpaws, he should see his pitch count get rather elevated. Milwaukee can work a pitcher and elevate that pitch count, but when Urias slices and dices them this evening, Dave Roberts will be hard-pressed to take his stud lefty off the mound before the 93rd pitch.

Underdog Pick'em Leans

  • Jake Fraley OVER 0.5 Runs (1 R scored in 8 of last 9, .433 OBP in August)
  • Yandy Díaz OVER 1.5 Total Bases (.346 AVG over L7, .900 OPS vs. LHP)
 

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