Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Tylor Megill's Breakout Season

Heading into the 2022 Major League Baseball season, New York Mets starting pitcher Tylor Megill was an under-the-radar name to most fantasy baseball managers. Now, over a week into the season, many of us wish Megill was on our own fantasy rosters – or even pitching for our favorite MLB teams. The Mets’ hurler has been a hot name on the waiver wire this past week with a pair of impressive starts under his belt. In this article, we’ll take a deeper look at Megill and what to expect from him moving forward the rest of the season.

This Sunday article series will highlight the pitcher position all season long. Each week, we’ll focus on a different starting or relief pitcher for fantasy baseball purposes. Hopefully you’ve been taking advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s Player Spotlight series bouncing around every position from the fantasy baseball perspective. If not, go check it out! For now, it’s time to turn our attention to the mound and focus on an emerging pitcher talent. 

Megill’s Impressive Opening Week

Following Jacob deGrom’s Spring injury, the Mets handed Megill the Opening Day start and he didn’t disappoint. The 26-year-old tossed five shutout innings against the Nationals with six strikeouts, three hits allowed and no walks conceded. He followed that performance up with 5.1 scoreless frames against the Phillies in his second start, including five strikeouts, three hits allowed and zero walks (again). 

You could make the argument that the first outing vs. a subpar Washington lineup was an Opening Day fluke. Well, a repeat performance in a tougher matchup vs. Philly’s dangerous lineup certainly got our attention. 

There’s a ton to love about Megill’s 10.1 combined shutout innings and it’s hard to find any flaws. Allowing zero baserunners to score is obviously nice. It’s impossible to ignore the 11:0 K:BB ratio as well. Can this continue, though? That's what we're here to figure out. 
 

Who is Tylor Megill?

It’s a fair question. For newer fantasy baseball players or casual MLB fans, Tylor Megill might be a name you barely heard of last year and didn’t think to consider heading into this 2022 season. Here’s a quick introduction to the young pitcher, for those who aren’t familiar.

The New York Mets selected Megill in the eighth round of the 2018 MLB Draft out of the University of Arizona. Once in the NYM organization, the right-hander progressed through three minor-league levels in the 2019 season before having his 2020 campaign cancelled due to COVID. Then in 2021, Megill started eight games between Double-A and Triple-A before making 18 starts in the Mets' big-league rotation. 

Check out this overview of Megill's minor-league stats at each level.

After Megill got called up to the New York rotation last year, he compiled a 4.52 ERA and 4.69 FIP across 18 starts and 89.2 innings. It wasn't anything special and that's why expectations weren't as high for this 2022 season. 

Megill’s Velocity Increase

So, how did Megill go from being a run-of-the-mill rookie who posted a 4.52 ERA last season – to a breakout performer who's yet to allow a run through two 2022 starts? Arguably the biggest reason for Megill's success is his increased velocity. Last year, he was usually sitting mid-90s with a fastball that averaged 94.6 mph. That's not terrible, but it also doesn't really set him apart from most big-league starters. 

This season? The Mets' righty has jumped nearly two full mph on his fastball to 96.4 mph on average. Megill has even been able to touch 98-99 in the early innings of his two starts thus far – which was never the case a year ago. This increased velocity has, in turn, made him a much more dangerous pitcher to opposing batters. Specifically, Megill's fastball boasts a 27.7% whiff rate in 2022 – an uptick of six points from his 21.5% mark last season. 

In addition to the uptick in fastball velocity, Megill has also shown a speed increase in another key pitch – the changeup. Last year, his change averaged 85.4 mph and was nothing to write home about. In 2022? The right-hander's changeup is now five mph harder at an average of 90.1 mph in his two starts so far. That's a notable increase and it's given the pitch some more bite as well.

New-Look Delivery

There can be many reasons why a pitcher can jump up 2-5 mph in velocity from one season to the next. For Megill, one could argue that he's naturally developing at the still-young age of 26. Or he's now maximizing his 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame that can help make anyone a flamethrower. 

In this instance, though, some credit has to be given to Megill's new-look delivery and slight changes in his throwing mechanics. From 2021 to 2022, the righty has gone away from his pre-throw wind-up completely and now pitches out of the stretch even with the bases empty. This is a tactic we've seen other starters and relievers have success with in the past, and Megill's simplified delivery is clearly helping.

Just check out these visual comparisons of his 2021 and 2022 deliveries:

2021:

2022:

Something as simple as moving to the stretch from the wind-up can make a profound impact on a pitcher's success. It's clearly helping Megill and the lesser body movement before a pitch is thrown cannot go overlooked here.

Rest of Season Expectations

Now we come to the issue of whether or not Tylor Megill can continue his early-season success for the rest of the 2022 campaign. Whether you're a fan of the Mets or not, Megill's fantasy baseball value is something we should all be interested in after this hot start. 

The increase in fastball velocity and more-effective changeup are very encouraging for the New York righty to keep the good times going. The new delivery from the stretch seems to be having a direct positive impact on his pitch speed – and it might be the main reason for the uptick. It's also caused an increase in whiff rate with opposing hitters having a tough time adjusting to the speed. 

It's safe to say that, if you have Megill on your fantasy baseball rosters, start him in your weekly matchups until proven otherwise. Outside of injury, we have little reason to expect him to struggle as much as he did last year. Obviously he won't be rolling out scoreless outings every time for the Mets – but giving up three runs or fewer on a consistent basis is very possible.