It is all about MLB predictions. They generate a large amount of buzz, and heading into a new season, predictions (especially bold predictions) are all the rage. You cannot have predictions without keeping track of their success (and failure) even if the former goes down a lot easier from this perspective. With that being said, let us look at Rowdy Tellez of the Milwaukee Brewers to determine if he is meeting our expectations.

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight: Rowdy Tellez

 


With about two months left in the MLB regular season, this is the perfect time to start the reflection process, and this week, we are going look at things from the positive side.

On draft day, Tellez was essentially free as he was the 34th first baseman off the board in NFBC leagues with an ADP of 349. Entering the season, our bold prediction was that Tellez would finish the season at the 30 home run mark, so to this point, how did we do?

 

Tellez's Previous Seasons

Throughout his career, since he played 23 games in 2018, playing time has been one of the biggest issues for Tellez as there was never truly any doubt with his skills in the power department. In his first full season, 2019, Tellez hit what (until now) is his career high with 21 home runs in 111 games.

Tellez was used more infrequently over the next two seasons, but heading into 2022 it appeared that he was in line for regular playing so that, along with his power skills, was the biggest reason for why I expected him to hit the 30 home run mark.

 

 

 

Rowdy Tellez in 2022

Anytime you find a player who can reach that mark, it is always welcome, but there are also reasons why the price on Tellez was as cheap as it was; his batting average. While Tellez only strikes out about 20% of the time, a plus for any player let alone a power hitter, he still is hitting only .232 on the season. If you want to take an optimistic angle, Tellez’s BABIP is just .240 so positive regression can be expected and his .258 xBA is more attractive.

Not only is Tellez playing more this season, 97 games entering action on Tuesday, which puts him on a slightly better pace than 2019, but we also have seen his power metrics tick up slightly with an ISO of .232. Additionally, we are seeing a career best 12.8%-barrel rate and 15.4 degree launch angle that backs up the improved power.

Planted in the middle of Milwaukee’s lineup, Tellez has also been a dependable RBI threat with 65 to this point which is already well past his previous career high of 54. 

While Tellez might not necessarily be, or ever be, an elite option he has emerged as a very steady contributor.

It should also be noted that Tellez’s power production has been relatively consistent throughout the season, but the biggest takeaway for me is that whenever you can acquire 30 home run production either at the very end of drafts or off the waiver wire, it is a worthwhile endeavor.

 

Tellez For the Rest of Season

As we look towards the future, both the last two months of the season and 2023, it should be noted that what we see with Tellez is what we get. Everything we are getting from Tellez lines up with his batted ball metrics and it is easily repeatable. From a trading perspective, I would not overreact from either direction, but if you have another team looking for a power boost to close out the season, cashing out on Tellez might not be the worst approach.

 

 

 

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