Every week, we break down a different MLB shortstop to examine — good or bad. Maybe it's an MLB top prospect, a “flavor of the month” on the fantasy baseball waiver wire, or someone who could be “sell-high” trade bait. Sometimes, it's a superstar or burgeoning player who is turning in the season we were all hoping for and rising up fantasy baseball rankings. In this edition of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight series, we will turn our attention to Corey Seager. The brand-new Texas Rangers shortstop has been an elite source of power this year, but the batting average has been a drain.  What are some MLB projections and fantasy baseball expectations for Seager for the rest of the season? Here we will break down The Texas shortstop’s power potential, his BABIP bad luck, and if it will continue for the last two months of the season. 

 

 

 

Corey Seager Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 


When Corey Seager signed a massive $325 million contract with the Texas Rangers his past offseason, the amount wasn’t as much of a surprise as the team that signed him. But when the Rangers combined Seager with a massive contract for Marcus Semien, it was clear they are trying to build a more potent offense, and fast. 

That hasn’t exactly worked out how they hoped this year as the Rangers are learning that two men do not a nine-man lineup make. The Rangers are 13th in slugging percentage this year, but are just 27th in team on-base percentage, all leading to exactly middle of the pack in runs scored overall. But for as many issues the Rangers’ offense may have this season, none are the fault of Corey Seager. His power and on-base ability have been excellent all year, with only one pesky thing weighing down what could be a historic season: his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). 

 

Corey Seager’s BABIP Problem

BABIP has always been a very fickle beast. One year it can take a player to new heights, and the next it can derail what might be a historic season. For Seager, he is definitely experiencing the latter. Consider, Seager is currently three home runs away from a career-high with more than two months to go. He should also set career highs in RBI, steals, and walks this year. But his batting average of .243 through Wednesday is languishing about 50 points below his career average. 

Why is that? Simply put, it’s because his BABIP (.234) is an incredible 90 points below his career number (.322). Before 2022, Seager never had a BABIP below .301. This visual from FanGraphs comparing Seager’s BABIP across his career compared to the MLB average really puts it all in context. 

 

 

Normally we might see wild swings like that in the first few weeks of a season, but this is now four prolonged months of horrible batting average luck for Seager in Texas. According to research done on the subject, BABIP is one of the stats that takes the longest to normalize, typically around 800 batted ball events. But Seager passed that number in his career a long time ago, so we would expect a number closer to .300 or slightly above. It just hasn’t been there for him in 2022. 

In fact, out of 157 qualified batters this year, Seager ranks 149th overall. Players in that area are who you might expect: Giancarlo Stanton, Rowdy Tellez, Kyle Schwarber, and Max Muncy. Plodders who would never be expected to have their speed or athleticism help them leg out hits. 

 

 

 

Seager’s Power is Saving his Fantasy Season

Although the average is not what fantasy managers expected, the power this year has been a nice bonus to help make up for it. Seager’s power this season has actually evolved since his last couple of years in Los Angeles. Baseball Savant ranks him in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity and the 80th percentile for hard-hit rate. 

Seager’s exit velocity, launch angle, and expected slugging percentage are all higher or at the same level as in the past three years. Those inputs lead Baseball Savant to spit out a .284 expected batting average for Seager, but he hasn’t seen that number since back on April 21st. 

But those numbers have also led to a next-level power jump for Seager. His 23 home runs are three more than any other shortstop and have actually been slightly diminished by the new pitcher-friendly home park Savant estimates that Seager would have 27 home runs if he played his games in Dodger stadium. 

This isn’t quite a Joey Votto in 2021 situation, where Seager is totally selling out for power at the expense of batting average. Seager should have an average that would rank in the top ten among all shortstops this year, but instead, he sits 18th, just ahead of Ha-Seong Kim. 

 

BABIP Fortune Can Change in a Moment

Just because Seager has produced a certain way in terms of batting average and BABIP this year doesn’t mean the next two months will be a carbon copy. In fact, his BABIP luck could turn around at any moment. If you can call a shortstop with 23 home runs, 53 RBI, and three steals a buy-low candidate, Seager certainly fits the bill. 

With most fantasy trade deadlines approaching in the coming weeks, if you find a Seager manager who is frustrated by the batting average risk, he would be among one of my top targets for the final weeks of the season. 

[Authors note: This piece was written before Corey Seager went 3-for-3 on Thursday night against the Angels. Maybe his luck is already turning around!]
 

 

 

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