MLB DFS Playbook July 30: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 30, 2023
Hello and welcome to the MLB DFS Playbook for July 30! We have a mid-sized 8-game slate on DK and a 9-game slate on FD on our hands today (FD choosing to include the 3:10 game between the A’s and Rockies). We have a 1:35 pm ET start time, so get those lineups made! Make sure to check out all of our amazing MLB DFS tools as they are always worth going through before building your lineups as are the Vegas Odds. However, as I am sure you have figured out by now, the new playbook will be a one-stop shop that includes everything from easy-to-read player write-ups and suggestions to MLB Weather Reports to lineup construction tips to our best value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. You will be given core plays around which to build your lineups, DFS stacks to consider for GPP tournaments and key statistics to help you in your DFS research. Let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Playbook July 30
MLB Weather Updates
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (possible rain)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves (possible rain)
Oakland Athletics vs. Colorado Rockies (possible rain)
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing out:
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves (hot, with winds blowing out to LCF)
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing in:
None.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
Today’s slates looked vastly different, depending on if you are playing on DK or if you are on FD. FD choosing to include the Oakland Athletics vs. Colorado Rockies game, brings in a game with a 12.5 over/under, the highest of any game today and a game that will likely be attacked for DFS. Jesus Luzardo and Justin Verlander are the headlining pitchers for today’s slate and there is a lot going on with this slate, despite just the 8 or 9 game size. Let’s dive in!
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Best Odds for a Win
Justin Verlander (New York Mets -271)
A.J. Smith-Shawver (Atlanta Braves -210)
Kenta Maeda (Minnesota Twins -178)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Luzardo has been incredible lately, scoring at least 28.7 dk points in five of his past six outings and is coming off a game in which he scored 36.2 points by firing seven innings of one-run ball with 13 Ks. He has at least 8 Ks in four of his past five starts and now has 144 strikeouts on the year across 120.1 innings. His 3.22 ERA is also fantastic as he has quietly moved himself into the NL Cy Young conversation. The Tigers are a fantastic matchup and Luzardo should dominate in this one.
Justin Verlander, New York Mets
JV has scored 31.6 and 25.9 dk points over his last two starts and his ERA on the year now stands at an impressive 3.24. His strikeout rate has been pretty bad this year (76 in 89 innings of work), but he has been better with it lately with 19 Ks across his last 19 innings. He has loved pitching at home this year as he has a 2.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at Citi Field this year. This is a great spot against the Nationals and at home, so JV should keep the good times rolling in what could possibly be his final start as a Met.
Skubal was dynamite in his last outing, firing five shutout innings in a win over the Giants and racking up 9 Ks to finish with 32.1 dk points. He now has 23 strikeouts in 17 innings of work with a 3.71 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He is also slowly building up his pitch count and he had 82 in his last outing, so he should be close to no restriction today as I would imagine he could get to at least 85-90 pitches. The Marlins are a great matchup and I expect another strong outing from Skubal.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
6.90 – Colorado Rockies
6.26 – Atlanta Braves
6.12 – Oakland Athletics
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
*I avoided using players from the OAK/COL game for this section as they aren’t available on DK, but if you are playing on FD, I do like some players from that game – see the Core Plays.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Alonso had been in a deep slump for a while but he has fully snapped out of it as he is cooking now, hitting .316 with FOUR home runs and 20 total R/RBI over his last 10 games. He now has 30 home runs on the year with 73 RBI. His home run upside is immense and he has a good matchup today against Trevor Williams, who has really struggled lately with a 5.07 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also given up 21 home runs this year in 104.2 innings.
Abraham Toro, 1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Toro has looked very good with the Brew Crew thus far, hitting .533 with two dingers and nine RBI through his first seven games with the club (15 at-bats). Today, he faces the rookie Braves right-hander A.J. Smith-Shawver, who has been OK at best thus far with a 4.32 ERA and five home runs allowed across 16.2 innings of work. This game looks like it will be a high-scoring one and options from either side are in play.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
Witt has gone absolutely bananas the last two days, racking up four hits and a bomb in both games to finish with 42 and 34 dk points. He has also racked up an eye-popping NINE RBI in those two games. On top of all that, he has been FAR better at home this season, hitting .279 with a .833 OPS, compared to .248 and .705 on the road, respectively. He now has 18 home runs and 29 steals on the year, providing plenty of upside in multiple ways.
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros
Alvarez is back and he has wasted no time finding a groove as he is 5-11 through his first three games with a home run and four runs scored. The Rays are going with a bullpen game and starting with Zack Littell, who has a 5.11 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season. Alvarez should have no issue today with taking advantage of the Rays bullpen.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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