MLB Streaks & Trends: Hot Hitting Sluggers

Who's Hot

Joey Gallo, Texas

On an absolute tear producing power over the last two weeks, Gallo starts the second half with eight home runs over his 10 contests with a robust .355/.524/1.129 slash line his last 42 plate appearances. His timing helps the Rangers who continue floating him on the trade block ahead of the deadline, just two weeks away. As for the slugger, he produced a .774 isolated power in this sample with a 308 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) metric and .628 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Mining his Statcast data yielded nine barrels of his 19 batted ball events (47.4 barrel percentage) and 13 hard hits (exit velocity of 95 MPH or better). Pretty, pretty, pretty good. Just remember he's streaky. 

Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox

A preseason draft darling who started slowly, changed his position and potentially ended up on waiver wires may be worth your time. Vaughn ended the first half with a .395/.417/.744 slash his last 12 games spanning 48 plate appearances with 10 runs, four home runs and nine RBI. His 6.3 walk rate and stabilizing 14.6 strikeout percentage may signal his plate discipline may be settling in. He generated 38 batted ball events in this time frame with six barrels (15.8 percent) and 18 hard hits (47.4 percent). If someone dropped him in your league, it's time to pick him up for a potential strong second half.

Juan Soto, Washington

A quick graduation from last week's migration to the mean highlight to a hot streak. It's been a rough first half for those spending a top-five pick on the talented Soto. However, his buy low window may expire after this weekend. Over his last 14 games ahead of the All-Star break, he accrued 61 plate appearances with 13 runs, three home runs, 10 RBI, two stolen bases and a .327/.443/.531 slash line. He walked (18 percent) more than he struck out (14.8 percent) in this sample and drew two walks in the All-Star game. His 41 batted ball events leading up to the break yielded five barrels (12.2 percent) and 23 hard hits (56.1 percent) with a maximum exit velocity of 113.4 MPH. Last, but not least, the Nationals are one of four teams with 75 games left this season, most in the majors. 

Who's Not

Dylan Moore, Seattle

All the warning signs lied in his underlying data from 2020, but those desperate for stolen bases took the plunge. His last two weeks data provided everything within his skill set with three runs, two home runs, five RBI and two stolen bases with a .122/.182/.268 slash in 44 plate appearances in 12 games. If a roster can tolerate his batting average, leave him in since he will get playing time for the Mariners in the second half, for now at least, and provide power with speed. But he needs to hit at least .220 to remain on the periphery of mixed league positive outcomes. 

Steven Duggar, San Francisco

After a strong start to this season providing some speed and surprising power, perhaps the league caught up to him? His last 12 games featured a strikeout rate of 39 percent with only a 7.3 walk percentage, a .026 isolated power, a .176 wOBA and a wRC+ of 10. With four runs and two RBI in his last 41 plate appearances, it's time to sit him in fantasy and it also may lead to the Giants buying an outfielder at the deadline replacing his spot on the roster. 

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

His team's already in "sell” mode meaning playing time will continue, but at what cost to his fantasy outlook? Happ's struggled in 2021 overall and his last two weeks aligns with this premise. He's scored four runs with a home run and four RBI hitting .176/.282/.294 with a 30.8 strikeout percentage, a .118 isolated power and 65 wRC+ rating. Maybe a reset button at the break helps him, but for now he's best left to the waiver wire until he shows signs of life. 

Migration to the Mean

Michael Conforto, New York Mets

Good news, the Mets will play 75 games in the second half, so there's time left for a rebound by Conforto. But, he limped into the All-Star break batting .139/.326/.222 his last 46 plate appearances with four runs, a home run and five RBI. His team needs his power to return and he will be given a chance to hit out of it, so note his expected numbers based on quality of contact and kick the tires on the struggling profile: 

• .202 batting average versus a .248 expected batting average (xBA) - plus 46 points
• .301 slugging percentage versus a .414 expected slugging (xSLG) - plus 113 points
• .302 wOBA versus a .358 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) - plus 56 points

Max Kepler, Minnesota

Ended the first half on a power binge launching four home runs his last 11 games with eight runs and nine RBI in them. Kepler can be streaky but slashed .316/.395/.737 through these 43 plate appearances with a .421 isolated power, .467 wOBA and 200 wRC+. His expected numbers see his power leveling out but there's room for growth in his average and hope for the second half, even if the Twins decide to sell: 

• .222 batting average versus a .258 xBA - plus 36 points
• .460 slugging percentage versus a .467 xSLG - plus 7 points
• .330 wOBA versus a .351 xwOBA - plus 21 points

Elvis Andrus, Oakland

Shifting to second in the lineup woke up a slumbering Andrus in Oakland. Through 11 games in his new spot, he's hitting .304/.340/.500 with eight runs, two home runs, five RBI and three stolen bases. Buy the gains in stolen bases more than the power, but any team needing help in batting average and steals should see if he's presently on the waiver wire: 

• .235 batting average versus a .276 xBA - plus 41 points
• .322 slugging percentage versus a .396 xSLG - plus 74 points
• .261 wOBA versus a .308 xwOBA - plus 47 points