A couple of MLB teams clinched last night, whether it be a playoff berth or a first-round bye, but as the season's end draws closer and closer, the postseason picture is becoming more clear. Outside of the MLB playoff race, we saw some dominant performances last night, headlined by Logan Gilbert’s stunning September, and a big day from stolen base hero Jon Berti. Rookie Spencer Torkelson had a multi-hit night, and with a good end to the 2022 season, he could be a fantasy baseball sleeper for 2023. Corbin Burnes was outdueled by Max Scherzer, and Burnes’ numbers over his last seven starts are quite staggering. As we close the door on Monday’s Major League Baseball action, we look ahead to Tuesday’s slate, and I’ll give you my best bet of the day. If you want some MLB player prop insight and content, keep your eyes peeled on the site later today for PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy content.

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball MLB News & Notes from Monday

Logan Gilbert Dominates Angels

Six innings of one run ball with 11 strikeouts will surely get it done! Gilbert is having a dominant September, to the tune of a 0.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 34:5 K/BB ratio across 23 innings of work. In August, Gilbert couldn’t strike anyone out, and he really struggled, to the tunes of a measly 5.06 K/9 and 6.75 ERA. Also in August, he threw his curveball more than ever before in 2022, and his slider less than any previous month. Well, he flipped the script on that, and his slider is flourishing again as his second pitch. Yesterday, it generated seven whiffs on 15 swings, and overall in September, it has a 45.2 percent whiff rate!

 


 

Jon Berti’s Big Day

After a couple of hitless games, Berti had a massive game for Miami, hitting his fourth home run of the year, and raising his stolen base total to 36 on the season. He’s been quite the fantasy baseball waiver wire pick up of the year for fantasy baseball managers, in large part to his blazing speed and dominance on the base paths. His batted ball profile isn’t anything to get overly excited about, but he’s in line for a third-straight season with a double-digit walk rate, and if he can get on base semi-regularly, he’s a threat for big time stolen base totals. As you have seen this year, Berti has 36 stolen bases in just 88 games, which comes to a total of 63 swiped bags over a full 162 game season.


Spencer Torkelson Notches Three Hits

Torkelson struggled in the beginning of the season to say the least, but after being sent back to Triple-A, he’s been far better for Detroit. Upon being demoted to Triple-A, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire, posting a .229 average and .737 OPS across 35 games, but since rejoining the Tigers, there have been some encouraging signs. Despite hitting just .239, he’s making a ton of hard contact, and he’s cut the strikeouts back significantly.

 

AVG

K%

Avg. Exit Velo

Barrel Rate

Launch Angle

First 83 Games

.197

25.5%

89.5 mph

6.8%

13.2

Last 13 Games

.280

13.8%

95.7 mph

11.9%

19.0


 

Torkelson likely won’t receive the fantasy draft capital in 2023 he saw this season, but he could be a nice value, especially if he has a good end to the 2022 season.


Max Scherzer Returns, Mets Clinch

Scherzer may have had a perfect game working at under 70 pitches, but it shouldn’t be a big surprise that he was pulled. This game on September 19th doesn’t mean as much as games will in early October when the Mets will need Scherzer. His dominant return clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2016 for the Mets, and the veteran workhorse now has 200 wins in his big league career. The Mets will carefully increase his workload the rest of the way, so fantasy baseball managers shouldn’t be surprised if Scherzer is capped around 80 or so pitches in his next start.

 

 

 

Corbin Burnes Burns Fantasy Managers

Five earned runs in 5.2 innings last night with just four strikeouts didn’t help many fantasy baseball managers, especially those competing for their league’s title. Prior to this start, Burnes had two solid starts, but overall across his last seven starts, he’s 2-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He’s at a career high 184.2 innings of work, so could he be fatiguing a bit? Maybe, but there hasn’t been a dip in his velocity or anything like that, but here in September, he has been a bit unlucky with his primary pitch, as opponents are hitting his cutter at a .289 clip, despite a .251 xBA. While we’re on the xBA train, you’ll see that his line has trended above the MLB average, which is an outlier for the Milwaukee right-hander.

 


Kershaw, Dodgers Clinch First Round Bye

The Dodgers clinched a first-round bye, Clayton Kershaw carved up Arizona, what else is new? Since returning from the IL, Kershaw has made four starts in September, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 29:4 K/BB ratio in 24 innings of work. Listen, there’s not much to be said here. The Dodgers are an absolute powerhouse, and if Kershaw is going to pitch like this, watch out.

However, we all know the narrative of Kershaw in the postseason.

 

Tuesday’s Best Bet

Nationals @ Braves OVER 8.5 Runs Scored (-105 Bet MGM)

Patrick Corbin is pitching for Washington, and there are numerous Atlanta bats with good BvP numbers against him. Sure, he’s pitched better of late, but Atlanta is going to put runs up on the board, no doubt about that. Furthermore, over the last two weeks, the Nationals are tied for the second-highest batting average against right-handed pitchers, and they have a .786 OPS, and 115 wRC+ during that span. Charlie Morton has been great at home this year, but he does have a 4.39 ERA overall in his last seven starts. Morton will be fine, but I believe Washington can scratch a couple of runs in this one, with Atlanta carrying the load against Corbin.


 

 



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