As the 2026 MLB season approaches, everyone is scouring ADP data and fantasy baseball player projections to unearth value at every position. The first base position is a bit deeper than it was last season, but finding mid-to-late round gems can really make or break your roster, especially when most look for a big bat at the corner infield position. But while everyone wants to draft Vladimir Guerrero, Pete Alonso and Nick Kurtz, you can’t always get what you want and have to make pivots to lower-ranked players. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing if you know where you are looking and we have a few names you may want to take note of should you be forced into the lower tiers of the position. Each brings a mix of power, upside, and draft-day value, making them solid players to target in your upcoming drafts.

 

 

Michael Busch – Undervalued Power

Michael Busch enters 2026 as a solidified everyday player for the Cubs, building on a strong sophomore campaign where he showcased improved plate discipline and consistent power. Expectations for Busch in 2026 are optimistic, with projections pointing to a potential breakout in counting stats. Our projections are a bit more on the conservative side, projecting a .248/.307/.417 slash line with 19 home runs and 64 RBI, but consensus forecasts from outside sources believe he could slash upwards of .249/.334/.476, with 28 home runs and 78 RBI over roughly 579 plate appearances. That’s an optimistic look for plate appearances, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 

His strikeout rate dropped to 23.5% last year, well below his rookie mark, while maintaining a solid 9.5% walk rate. Busch thrived against right-handers (.272 average) and hit 21 of his 34 homers on the road, suggesting his power plays anywhere. With 550+ at-bats projected, he could push toward 30 homers and 95 RBI if he secures more middle-of-the-order opportunities, especially after batting leadoff in spots last season despite a .311 OBP. 

Busch's current ADP sits at 129 overall (1B #10). This places him in the 8th-10th round of 12-team leagues, offering excellent value as a CI or second first baseman. He may even be undervalued compared to his upside. Think a poor man's Paul Goldschmidt with room to grow. Draft him ahead of his ADP if you're chasing power without sacrificing average; he's a safe bet for 25+ homers at a discount relative to top-tier first basemen like Bryce Harper or Pete Alonso.

 

 

Jonathan Aranda – Low-Risk, High-Floor with Upside

Jonathan Aranda finally got his shot last year and ran with it, setting up a potential everyday gig at first base for the Rays in 2026. Projections for Aranda are solid but somewhat tempered by past injuries, as we forecast .267/.358/.411 with 17 homers, 90 runs, 90 RBI, and one stolen base over 549 at-bats. His .316/.393/.489 slash-line last season (146 wRC+) came with elite contact skills and a 9.7% walk rate. Despite a late wrist fracture, Aranda shone pre-All-Star (.324 with 11 HR) and could project for 25 HR/90 RBI over a full season if he avoids platoons. Tropicana Field isn't homer-friendly, but his .769 OPS projection factors in growth against lefties.

Aranda's ADP is 187.78 (1B #15), landing him in the 13th-15th round range which should make him a value play as a steady average contributor with 20-HR pop, like a poor man’s Yandy Diaz if you consider him a rich man’s target. Some see regression from his .409 BABIP, but his minor-league pedigree (.315 with 50 HR) supports sustainability. You can feel comfortable using him as a late-round first base option or even a corner infield play; he's a low-risk, high-floor option with breakout upside in deeper leagues.

 

 

Sal Stewart – Rookie Hype with Multi-Category Potential 

Sal Stewart, the Reds' promising young slugger, is poised for a full-time role after a stellar minor-league ascent and a September cameo that turned heads. For 2026, expectations are high for the 22-year-old, who combines plus plate skills with emerging power. Our projections show him slashing .248/.302/.425 with 11 home runs and 36 RBI, but that’s only with 286 at-bats. We are waiting to get official word of his full-time playing status, something we expect to hear early this spring.  Other projections systems peg him at .264/.335/.442 with 18 homers, 62 runs, 67 RBI, and 7 steals over 455 at-bats, so fairly in-line with what we have in a lesser role.  

But we do expect Stewart to carve out that role for himself. He’s got the talent to do so. His minor-league track record (.289/.390/.466 with 40 HR and 42 SB) highlights his well-rounded profile, including a 15.7% K rate and 13.4% BB rate. In Triple-A last year, he hit .315 with 10 homers, and his MLB debut featured five homers in just 55 at-bats, backed by elite Statcast metrics like 95.4 mph exit velocity—putting him in Aaron Judge territory. Great American Ball Park should amplify his power, potentially yielding 25+ homers with better health and conditioning.

Stewart's ADP hovers around 220 (1B #18), making him a 15th-18th round steal in standard roto leagues. As a post-hype sleeper with multi-category potential, he's undervalued but his ceiling screams league-winner if he hits .277/.351/.502 with 30 HR as some prime projections suggest. Target him as your CI or utility pick; the risk is low, and the reward could mirror a young Freddie Freeman lite.

Final Thoughts

In summary, Busch offers mid-round power reliability, Stewart brings rookie excitement with steal potential, and Aranda provides batting average stability. All three represent smart value picks, whether you are waiting on the position or you’re looking for corner infield help. Target them to bolster your infield without breaking the bank.

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