Over the past couple of weeks, we have reviewed late-round values to consider filling your fantasy rotations with as your drafts wind down to the final slots. This week examines a handful of starting pitchers that due to various circumstances, are suggested to let fall to other owners in your leagues. The arms profiled below all have a facet or two that make them riskier than necessary as elements for your pitching staff heading into the season. Allow your fellow league mates to select these pitchers while you savvily pick up other values for your 2022 run to the championship.

Note: The ADP (Average Draft Position) next to each starting pitcher below is derived from the overall averages contained in this year’s Draft Guide (get it here). Depending upon the level of knowledge possessed by your league participants, however, YMMV (your mileage may vary), and you may be able to get any one of these hurlers at greater value than on average.

Second Note: Projections are based on while not best-case scenarios, better than 50% prognostications (closer to 80%). In other words, not the ceiling but far from the floor. Also, with the effects of the shortened spring training yet to be revealed as of the writing of this article, take ALL these numbers with a huge grain of salt. They are, at this juncture, merely a supposition based on expectations that may not come to fruition.

 

 

ADP: 85.98

His value suffers some regression because of recurring injury woes suffered over the past few years, including Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. This spring the injury bug bit again - this time around a stress fracture on the right side of his rib cage. He is going to be out for at least a couple of weeks to open the new season, and the worse news is that the actual prognosis will not become clear until he resumes throwing and the extent of his injury’s effect on his ability to take the mound becomes clear. In any event, it means his innings will not be a full season’s worth, although his stats other than the Ks will likely be of value.

Projections: 110 IP / 3.55 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 134 K

 

 

 

 

ADP: 93.48

Another entry on the injury report, the Cardinal erstwhile ace will not see action until May most likely, as he is currently on a two-week vacation from any throwing due to a tear in his throwing shoulder. The righthander was limited to less than 80 IP in 2021 (78.1 IP to be precise) because of another pair of injuries that interrupted his performance as the anchor to the St. Louis rotation. There is a huge amount of risk with Flaherty given his recent spate of injuries, which should severely dampen a drafter’s enthusiasm to add him to their roster. If he slips down the draft board, however, the reward could be worthwhile.

Projections: 125 IP / 3.80 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 132 K

 

 

ADP: 141.26

Unlike the prior two starting pitchers, Gallen’s shoulder issues with which he was dealing over the off-season, do not appear to be significant enough to keep him out of the lineup to open the season, or at least not for more than a scheduled start or two. His recent disabilities should raise some red flags for those seeking to take advantage of the potential that the 26-year-old strikeout artist offers. He also saw an unexpected uptick in walk rate and homer allowed at the end of 2021, which may be a injury-recovery related effect or something to be concerned about going forward. 

Projections: 165 IP / 4.30 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 174 K

 

 

ADP: 142.08

Those who have been hopping on the rookie’s first full season in the Tampa rotation have been dealt a sobering setback, as the 22-year-old righty had “minor” surgery to remove some loose bodies from his right elbow. He is also going to be shelved to start the season, and given that the Rays are typically cautious with their injured pitchers to a fault, an early May return to action may be optimistic. The team is looking at this year as a productive one, and will want to make sure the hard throwing righthander will be available for end of season production. All that suggests that his owners are going to more likely than not to have to settle for limited innings during the season, and thus limited counting stats as a result.

Projections: 85 IP / 3.63 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 98 K

 

 

ADP: 171.42

It was back before the pandemic that Wainwright was railing against the expert leagues not drafting him like an ace, and while it took a couple of seasons for him to return to top-level SP status, the sad truth is that at 40 years of age, there is inevitable deterioration of skills on the horizon. He is still backed by a superb defense and has regained his control over the past couple of seasons, but some regression seems likely as the years add up. It is possible he will yield SP2/3 value but that is a risky bet at this stage of his career, and not to beat the issue into submission but… his age.

Projections: 170 IP / 4.39 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 131 K

 

 

ADP: 174

The Astro righthander is entering his seventh season once again dealing with injury issues, his near constant disadvantage in being able to live up to his potential as strikeout producer with tremendous upside. The team is not releasing anything close to a definitive timetable for his return to action as he recovers from a flexor tendon strain. The good news is that at present there is no need for surgery, nor does he appear to have an UCL issue…yet. The early thought is he will sit out all of April, and thus his status as a member of the Houston rotation is dicey at present. With those questions looming, he is not worthy of a middle round pick until some clarity about his status develops, and even then, his injury history makes him a perpetual risk to rely upon. 

Projections: 100 IP / 3.70 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 107 K

 

 

ADP: 217.88

Due to his personal legal problems, his administrative leave has been extended until April 16. That is a fluid situation, as his assault case wends its way through the court system, and while he does have the cachet of a 2020 Cy Young award, that is history and may not be sufficient to earn him a return to the Dodger active roster. Should the fates see fit to smile upon him in the form of legal vindication, look for him to provide useful ratio and counting stats to his fantasy owners. The rub is that potential does not win championships, it requires actual production on the field and that is not guaranteed for the 10-year MLB veteran.

Projections: 110 IP / 3.75 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 128 K

 

While we await the start of the 2022 season now that the lockout has ended and spring training is getting underway, these articles discussing the Starting Pitching ranks will continue on a weekly basis. Once things get back to “normal” and the season starts up for real, please return for the weekly Two-Start Pitcher analysis.

As ever, good luck and godspeed in all your fantasy efforts. You can contact this writer with your questions regarding starting pitching or other fantasy baseball issues at ia@fantasyalarm.com.

 

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