Opening Day for the 2026 MLB season is just two weeks away which means fantasy baseball drafts are kicking into high gear right now. We continue to produce plenty of new and valuable content in the living Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, the fantasy baseball player rankings and the Ultimate Cheat Sheet are routinely updated and we are determined to help you win a championship this season. One thing we haven’t really discussed yet here on the site is the fantasy baseball ADP, specifically the risers and fallers. Today, we dive into that.

 

 

Navigating Fantasy Baseball ADP

ADP can be tricky to navigate, especially for those who are new to fantasy baseball. For our ADP here at Fantasy Alarm, we try to help you with the composite ADP. Rules are different across multiple platforms, so the composite look helps, but where we fail – and believe me, tech is working on this for me – is the inability to set date ranges. What a guy’s ADP was in January is not helpful to your drafts today and it takes time for the data to normalize. If a guy has an ADP of 200 for two and a half months, but he wins a starting job in spring training and people start drafting him at ADP 100, the data will still read much closer to 200 than 100 because of the sample size. 

This is where I turn to our friends at the NFBC. Their ADP page allows you to set date ranges so you can look at where players are actually being drafted now as opposed to the average of three months’ worth of old data. Now, there’s no trading allowed in the NFBC and some positions – closers, specifically – get boosted up the draft boards. But it still gives you a great look at the position players and starting pitchers.

Below, we will look at some of the more recent ADP risers and fallers, so that you can be ahead of the curve should you be walking into your war room over the weekend.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Risers: March 12 

Wyatt Langford, OF Texas Rangers

Current ADP: 40.56

He’s been a favorite of ours since his rookie campaign and it looks like the trajectories for Langford’s career and statistical production continue to climb up. Last season, he was 22-22 for the year with a middling batting average but a .345 OBP and all signs continue to point towards a potential 30-30 season. Could that happen as early as this season? I believe it can. He doesn’t swing outside the zone too much; he just needs to make more contact when they’re throwing him offspeed stuff. Last year, he hit just .189 against offspeed pitches and whiffed on nearly half of them. With only two strikeouts over 19 spring at-bats, it looks like he’s starting to get it. Keep watching.

Mookie Betts, SS Los Angeles Dodgers 

Current ADP: 56.43

Manager Dave Roberts had a rock-solid plan to bring Betts along slowly this spring and it seems to be paying off right now. At least enough to give the fantasy baseball community reasons to feel good about drafting Betts after a down season last year. Roberts just wanted to give the veteran some time to get into the swing of things this season with the hope that he would find his swing without putting pressure on himself to start out hot and put all of 2025 behind him. Through five spring games, Betts is hitting .357 with one double and only one strikeout over 14 at-bats. It’s not exactly eye-popping, but it seems to be enough that people are more confident that we can see a return to form. I don’t think you’re going to see some big boost of power or speed, but could a 20-20 season be within reach? Yes. As well as a potential return to over 100 runs scored.    

Matt McLain, 2B Cincinnati Reds 

Current ADP: 181.31

It looks like I am going to have to give those second-base rankings and the cheat sheet draft grid another adjustment just for McLain. I was incredibly bullish on him last season and he was a massive disappointment. With concerns about possible platoons and whether or not he would return to the form we saw during his rookie campaign, he was ranked low and pretty far down on the draft grid. But a strong spring where he’s hitting .607 with five home runs and 12 RBI over 28 at-bats now has him flying up draft boards. We’re not looking to reach for him just yet, but we definitely need to start looking at him earlier – 16th-18th round in a 12-teamer, perhaps. The second base position is pretty shallow, so if you want to wait on it, you can certainly target McLain. Just don’t wait too long.

Bryan Abreu, RP Houston Astros 

Current ADP: 204.45

When Jim Bowden and I recorded the Front Office Insights podcast for the AL West, the GM had me staring at Abreu pretty intently. I grabbed him in a few drafts, leaving some people scratching their heads, and then in the LABR Mixed Auction, I went up to $6 for him. Why? Because the GM talked about the growing concerns over Josh Hader and his shoulder issues. He started his offseason throwing program late due to the injury and he continued to fall behind the rest of the pitching staff. “Why is it taking him so long to recover when he didn’t even have surgery,” the GM asked. And that led to an interesting discussion on handling players who suffered late-season injuries and struggle to get back to the mound. So, Abreu was already on my radar and now that Astros manager Joe Espada has let everyone know that Hader will open the season on the IL and a target date of return is still up in the air, I have the Astros closer for an indeterminable length of time. Could it be short-lived? Maybe. But it could also end up as fantasy gold should Hader not recover properly. I’m more than happy to take that shot and you can too. Just watch how the closers go in your drafts and don’t wait too long. 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Fallers: March 12

Rafael Devers, 1B San Francisco Giants 

Current ADP: 56.98

Maybe it was the springtime hamstring injury? No clue, but Devers ADP has dropped a few spots lately and you should be ready to buy the dip. Devers put all of his Red Sox issues behind him last year and surprised everyone with a power-surge in a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark. I don’t consider him up there with Vladimir Guerrero, Nick Kurtz or even Pete Alonso right now, but will I grab him ahead of Freddie Freeman? Yes. Maybe even Matt Olson, depending on the ADP and where I’m positioned in my draft.

Carlos Estevez, RP Kansas City Royals

Current ADP: 107.74

The velocity is down and the command looks rough. Am I concerned? Maybe a smidge, as I do have Estevez already rostered on a few teams. I like the guy a lot. I like his stuff, I typically like his command, he has a solid strikeout rate and he should see plenty of save opportunities with the Royals. Will I continue to draft him? Sure, if he continues to slip. I’ve seen far too many pitchers struggle during the spring only to turn it on once the season opens because they’ve built up their arm strength properly. If you do grab him, you may want to consider a late handcuff to Lucas Erceg.

Blake Snell, SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Current ADP: 151.81

I know it’s going to sound terrible, but it’s about time people stopped drafting this guy as high as they’ve been. I get it. He’s a two-time Cy Young winner and he pitches for the best team in baseball. But stop drafting the guy based on name recognition and look at what’s in front of you. He tossed just 61.1 innings last season, he’s not going to be ready until May and who knows what the command is going to look like given the nature of the shoulder injury. The Dodgers will continuously monitor his innings and are also likely to have a six-man rotation which takes away the two-start weeks. Let him be someone else’s headache. If you want to stash a top pitcher, then draft Gerrit Cole in the 19th round and thank me later.

Jackson Holliday, 2B Baltimore Orioles 

Current ADP: 187.30

The ADP drop comes from two places. The first is the hamate bone injury which will hold him out until mid-April. On top of that, regaining the strength always takes a little time, so he may not even be good until mid-May. The second reason is that second base is a terrible position and everyone seems to be wisely waiting on it. But here’s another case where I’ll happily buy the dip.  He was just three homers and three steals from being 20-20 last season and I can see him going at least 15-15 over the final four-plus months of the regular season. Where he is currently going in drafts, it’s definitely worth the risk to draft him.