Looking back to the 2018 season, catcher proved to be a fantasy wasteland. Unless one targeted J.T. Realmuto , Yadier Molina , Yasmani Grandal , Salvador Pérez or Wilson Ramos , no other catcher returned double digit value on investment when crunching the numbers. It seemed like Gary Sánchez and Willson Contreras would take the next step in their development making the position feel a bit deeper, but it boiled down to owning a catcher who would minimize damage rather than produce. Here’s a chart of the top-15 based on end of season statistics:
Those who cashed on the depressed cost of J.T. Realmuto will not benefit in redraft leagues in 2019. He soared to the top of the list and benefits from his spot in the lineup and durability displayed this past season. Although the stolen bases declined, he still produced in fantasy.
Aging like fine wine, Yadier Molina rebounded from an uncomfortable injury to reach the 20 home run plateau for the first time since 2012. He’s as solid as they come, yet seems to be rostered at a discount due to his age.
Remember when targeting Austin Barnes seemed like it made sense? Yasmani Grandal not only led the Dodgers in games played, but provided a nice discount to his owners. He will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Same goes for Wilson Ramos , he may end up on a new team which will impact his value for fantasy. But, over the last three years he carries a .297/.342/.482 slash line with 48 home runs in 302 games. Not too shabby.
Popular early target Gary Sánchez struggled. His BABIP cratered to .197 and lingering injuries along with spotty defense depressed his statistics. Use his career .252/.333/.515 as a baseline and with him entering his Age-26 season, the power will rebound. But can he stick at catcher?
Reductions in hard hit and home run per fly ball percentages befell Willson Contreras ’ season. His isolated power collapsed by over 100 points in spite of improvements in his plate discipline. Intrigued? Only if he can put more batted balls in the air, but time will tell.
If the Phillies give the timeshare at catcher to Jorge Alfaro , he may be better suited to produce for fantasy next season. His second half slash of .276/.366/.422 was fueled by an unsustainable .412 BABIP, but, he started to put more fly balls into play and raised his hard hit percentage to 48.6 percent. However, it’s tough to ignore his propensity to swing and miss (33 percent strikeout percentage) in this same time frame.
The Next Fifteen
There’s a conglomeration of mediocrity in the midst of the value rankings which coincides with the continuation of this list. It’s not pretty out there right now at catcher. Of interest, Mitch Garver finished the year strongly with a .268/.340/.474 line in 39 games after the All-Star break. During this time, he hit fly balls 41.7 percent of the time and registered a robust 47.2 hard hit rate. He finished the season with a contact percentage just below 80 while swinging and missing only 7.8 percent of the time.
Another under the radar contributor as the season progressed, Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Rangers. He will carry catcher eligibility next year and led the way with seven stolen bases. Will he stick at the position? Not sure, but if he can wrest at-bats away from Robinson Chirinos , but, he’s another player of intrigue.
2019 Names to Note
Not only did Garver impress for the Twins, Willians Astudillo made the most of his playing time. He made elite contact, 91.7 percent with a minuscule 4.7 swinging strike percentage. This did not match his waistline, but it helps in rooting for him. He also appeared in games at second base and the outfield for Minnesota. If he can maintain the contact with his ability to hit fly balls, Astudillo could be a perfect second catcher for deeper leagues.
Toronto will enter a steep rebuild but does possess some upside in Danny Jansen . His limited 31 game sample yields a .247/.347/.432 slash with three home runs. More importantly, he produced a 9.5 walk percentage versus striking out 17.9 percent of the time. Fantasy owners will need to temper enthusiasm but there’s much to like about a profile of 47.7 fly ball rate with 84.4 percent contact. Jansen will need to improve his hard hit rates, but he should be the primary catcher in the year ahead.
Will the Red Sox move Blake Swihart ? He’s currently the third catcher but turned a corner in the second half with 18 runs, three home runs, 14 RBI and four stolen bases. Not sure he can play enough to warrant fantasy attention, but it feels like he could be a sneaky late round flier with upside in the right environment.
Rookie Francisco Mejia would benefit if the Padres trade Austin Hedges . Mejia launched three home runs in only 56 at-bats this past season. Yes, his 16.1 swinging strike percentage and 73.9 percent contact prove less than ideal. If he can overcome his ground ball tendencies, Mejia could hit 15 home runs if he plays in at least 100 games. His average, though, could linger in the .220’s as he gains footing as a major league player.
A strong showing in the Arizona Fall League could speed up the arrival of Sean Murphy in Oakland. During his Age-23 season at Double-A, he appeared in 68 games with 51 runs, eight home runs, 43 RBI, three stolen bases and a .288/.358/.498 slash line. He rakes versus left-handed pitching and could force his way into an eventual platoon role with upside for more in American League only formats.
Burning Questions
It’s unfortunate this position will provide more questions than answers in a yearly review, but here we are:
Has Buster Posey ’s time as a viable top-5 catcher expired?
Will Willson Contreras and Gary Sánchez bounce back?
Which young catcher will breakout?
Who do the free agents sign with and what effects on playing time will it have?
Do more teams follow the Braves timeshare model at catcher?
Be sure to stick with Fantasy Alarm all offseason as these and much more will be covered leading up to drafts in 2019.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com
Baseball-Reference.com
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