A couple of weeks ago on Colton & The Wolfman, we had the honor of having Gregg Rosenthal from NFL.com as our guest. He reminded me of how some weeks there are games where you can safely play the WR3 or TE for a team since they are “Everybody in the Pool” matchups. This week has a number of those matchups and you don’t want to miss any of these opportunities. When thinking about the schedule this week, I couldn’t help but think about a Ron Howard film called Cocoon. In Cocoon, some trespassing seniors from an assisted living home uncover and befriend aliens who are using the indoor pool of a nearby mansion to incubate alien cocoons. These cocoons give youthful vigor to anyone who swims in the pool. Selecting players from these EP matchups will give your fantasy team vigor. And like Jack (Steve Guttenberg) says when Kitty teaches him how to have Alien sex...
“If this is foreplay…I’m a dead man.”
Like Cocoon, the pool is not for everybody. You can get carried away with using all these players instead of the great and talented players you already have. Some people want to live their fantasy life the same way they always have and this kind of outside the box thinking is TOO much for them. For those of you like that, stick to the projections, risk-free selections and finish in the Top 10. For me, like Ricky Bobby said in Talladega nights: “If you’re not first, you’re last…”
I posted the whole chart so you guys can look at all the matchups and maybe find some more cocoons that invigorate you hiding at the bottom of the pool. For this chart, we use PPR scoring from the FSTA Expert’s league. The green highlight is used to show a single team in a matchup that has given up a lot of points to opposing fantasy players. The yellow highlight is for the “Everybody in the Pool” matchups.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Philly has given up 179 points this season. The big number here is the whopping 52.9 pts per game to WRs in a PPR. Obviously, you should play Dez Bryant and in salary caps that adjusted for last week’s anomaly, you will get a slight discount on what is sure to be a 100+ performance. I personally don’t trust Miles Austin yet as he has been injured so much and a pulled hammy in the 1st quarter could kill your team. He is a high risk and high reward player this week. In my opinion, Jason Witten should be the top TE this week based on this matchup. I know that the TE points given up by Philly is not the data point here, but he is Romo’s guy and will get himself 7+ catches and likely a score. The diamond in the rough here is Terrence Williams. Last week, with Austin back, he saw fewer targets. However, he was relied upon in the red zone. The super sleeper is Cole Beasley. I am not saying to pick him up and start him over say a Alshon Jeffery, but in a salary cap or daily game, he can give you cap space for Dez. You can guarantee 4 catches for 50 yards at a minimum and he is likely to be the recipient of the WR screens that push PPR points up.
For the Cowboys, the numbers that stick out are the 27.9 points per game given up to QBs and the 26.4 points per game given up to RBs. Everyone knows about LeSean McCoy, but when deciding between him, JC and AP, I go with this matchup. The other guy of interest here is Nick Foles. Vick is the third string QB for emergencies while he comes back from injuries so Foles is still the signal caller. He does a fine job and will rack up 25 or so points which will land him in the Top 10 for the second straight week. Good cheap call and even available for pick up in a lot of leagues.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
This is a matchup that many people might overlook. The players are not the sexiest. Let’s look at when the Bills have the ball first. The Dolphins give up a league WORST 31.7 points per game to RBs. The news on CJ Spiller is that he is getting closer to 100%. However, after doing this for 21 years, I know when I guy questions his own confidence; he won’t be producing in big numbers unless he gets an early confidence with a big gainer. This is too risky for me. I said on the show on Tues, that I don’t own CJ in any leagues and I will avoid the boom or bust in salary cap and daily leagues. However, Fred Jackson is a sure thing. Even if Spiller explodes, Jackson will get his touches and do the damage against the colander that is the Miami Defense. Look for 15 carries and 5 catches plus a TD. If that is enough for you, then play F-Jax. The other number that stands out to me is that Miami gives up the most points to TEs (20.2). Comparing Scott Chandler to Jimmy Graham would be like comparing Ted Cruz to John F Kennedy. That said Chandler should deliver 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD. That is great output for a TE that will cost you next to nothing.
When the Fins have the ball, we look for the WRs to excel. The Bills give up 47.5 points per game to WRs. Like Johnny Depp as Cry Baby, Mike Wallace whined and is now getting the ball. With a strong week 5 and a BYE week to help them, Wallace is primed for another 7 catch 100 yard performance. The player to target here is Brian Hartline. A possession receiver that has had a couple of pedestrian weeks in a row, can easily get lost. No one is thinking about him and he will be a Top 20 WR this week. Good for your last WR spot in daily games.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are playing for pride while the Chargers are playing to stay competitive with two undefeated teams in their division. The Chargers got back to a running game last week and that should continue with Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews. Woodhead has been a Top 10 performer at RB this year based on his ability to catch the ball. They line him up in the slot and get matchups with LBs that he beats every time. He has had 5 or more catches in each of the last 5 games. Mathews has had between 15-22 carries each week except for Week 5 vs Oakland. He should get the ball a lot as the Bolts change their game to a ground attack.
The Chargers give up a lot of fantasy points to their opponents’ WRs. With Cecil Shorts having trouble with his ribs and Ace Sanders still having concussion symptoms, that leaves Justin Blackmon as virtually the only target. So what happens here is the Chargers defense will double cover him. He will still have a good day, but the deep sleeper here is Mike Brown. He caught 4 passes last week getting his first real work and he runs tight routes so he could be a factor. Look for him to get 5-6 catches for 80 yards. He will not be used the red zone, but will be a factor in the middle of the field. With all these injuries and the passing game that should be exploited, look for MJD to catch more than 2 passes out of the backfield for the first time this season.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Call me crazy, but this looks to me like a boom or bust for the Vikings. The Giants have given up the most points in the league and are 0-6 for the first time since before I was born. A new QB, Josh Freeman, will find chemistry with someone. Greg Jennings? He is the most likely here as he has the most experience and is most similar to Vincent Jackson who Freeman had that chemistry with. Jerome Simpson? Least likely as he is a deep threat for the most part and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, taking more than a handful of shots in a game would be a surprise. The uber talented Corderrelle Patterson is where my money is. Think he has a shot to emerge as they bond over both being new and both being talented. Don’t play him this week, but time to stash him. Jennings is the safest play this week. Kyle Rudolph is a must play. He should score a TD this week and have some good yardage. The Giant LBs are not good and those seem and crossing patterns should be exploited by Freeman and the Vikings.
When the Giants have the ball, it is time to exploit the waiver wire. Brandon Jacobs should have a great week as the Vikings allow 31.7 points in a PPR each week to RBs. The Giants signed Peyton Hillis, but he will be a week away from being anything more than a second option for Brandon Jacobs and with Andre Brown returning after the Giants BYE week, Hillis will be a backup to Brown. From the WRs, play them all. Hakeem Nicks is playing to get traded to a contender and his selfishness with play out on the field in the next two weeks while he tries to get out of New York. Victor Cruz is one of the most talented WRs in the game and an every week play. Even Reuben Randle should be played even though he gives Eli fits by not reading defenses correctly and not running through routes. He has big talent and when you are 0-6, there is no reason not to work through this with your young star. Forget the TE; he is just not a fit for Eli. He runs off routes. He will block to give time for the playmakers.
Geeks of the World Rejoice!
There is something that is important to mention here also. Statistical data like the above chart is great to help with making decisions, but you also need to make sure you pay attention to injuries and trends. When I say trends, I mean what a player’s trend curve looks like. Is he being used more in the current system? Was his big game because of a game plan by the head coach (like Ryan Mathews this past week)? Is he inconsistent from week to week? We need to do some investigating into the numbers to determine what causes players to perform. Sheer numbers are like drugs. When people use them, they think it is everything. Like Joe (Hume Cronyn) and Ben (Wilfred Brimley) said about their pool:
Joe: You think there's cocaine in that pool?
Ben: Might be.
Joe: What if we O.D.?
Ben: We'll keep an eye on each other.
So, here is my strong advice…
Use the numbers but BEWARE of the HYPE
Rick Wolf, Co-Host of Colton & The Wolfman - Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio 
Rick Wolf is a leader in the fantasy sports industry. Wolf is a founding Board Member and one of only fifteen FSTA Hall of Famers including Bill James and Matthew Berry. Wolf’s career accomplishments include starting the fantasy sports division at SportsLine USA that became CBS SportsLine, incubating Rotoworld to become the #1 fantasy sports news site, and spearheading the sale of Allstar Stats/Rotoworld to NBC Sports in 2006. With college friend and fellow Hall of Famer, Glenn Colton, the team has won 7 expert titles in baseball and football. Twitter: RickWolf1