With a full month of baseball in the books, fantasy baseball owners are jumping all over the numbers and streaks here at the start of May. The hope is to identify which hot starts are cooling off before the rest of the world notices and look to sell high. The hope is to also identify which players are heating up and are worth a look, whether it’s off waivers or on the trade market. But let’s be careful about making snap judgments here. Consider this first week of May the transition period and look for next week to really take off. We’re still looking at a lot of crappy weather which affects game play and there are still a crazy number of injuries around the league. However, we can still line some guys up right now, see where they’re at and look to see if they’re trending up or down.
Staying Hot
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B WAS – He finished the first month of the season slashing an insane .420/.458/.886 with 11 home runs, 29 RBI, 22 runs scored and a stolen base and has kicked off the month of May in similar fashion. Granted, it’s just two games, but four hits in eight at-bats is nothing to sneeze at! He’s now hit safely in 10-straight games with six-straight multi-hit performances. We’re always waiting for that moment when an injury derails him, but until that day comes, enjoy the ride.
Aaron Judge, OF NYY – Are you f***ing kidding me? Big power was expected, but where are the big strikeouts? We were led to believe this yeti was cut from the same cloth that brought us home run/whiff specialists like Chris Davis and Joey Gallo, but with just a 26.7-percent K-rate for April, this has been a real treat. The number is still a little high, but when you were expecting a 40-percent rate, this is a dream come true. He finished April batting .303 with 10 home runs, 20 RBI, 23 runs scored and a stolen base and May looks no different with three home runs in his last three games and a hit streak extended to six games. We know he’s going to slow down at some point, but if he can continue with this strong plate discipline (only a 40.7-percent swing rate and 23.1-percent O-Swing), this kid should be a HUGE fantasy asset.
Michael Conforto, OF NYM – Even when Yoenis Cespedes was healthy, Conforto was seeing heavy playing time for a guy who was supposed to just be a fourth outfielder again. But he continued to force his way into the lineup by staying hot and closed out April with a .321 average, six home runs, 13 RBI, 11 runs scored and one stolen base over 66 plate appearances. He’s opened May with multi-hit performances in three-straight games, extended his hit streak to six games, and has two doubles, one homer and five RBI over his last 14 at-bats. When Cespedes returns, Curtis Granderson better hope Lucas Duda is still banged up so Jay Bruce can be the one to move out of the outfield.
Getting Colder?
Eric Thames, 1B MIL – Maybe he’s losing steam having to stop every other day to pee in a cup for MLB, but things are starting to cool down for the Brewers’ beast. He hasn’t homered in six games and is just 2-for-15 (.133) with just one extra-base hit over his last four games. He did go through a little dry spell towards the end of April (a 1-for-11 stretch), but got back on-track, so this could just be a temporary thing. Still, no one was projecting Thames to drop 40 bombs on the league this year and a slow-down was certainly expected. Just be careful you don’t lose your window to get max value for him in trades.
Chase Headley, 3B NYY – After a torrid start to the season, Headley closed out the month of April with a .205/.271/.386 over his last 11 games, so he didn’t really wait the full month to cool down. The surface numbers -- .304 average with three homers and four stolen bases – still look solid and the Yankees have had him batting second at times which always gives a player some added appeal, but it looks like the 32-year old is already showing us that expecting anything more than what he’s done over the last four seasons was the wrong way to look at him. He’s hit safely in his last three games with a double and two RBI, but even the mention of that makes it look like we’re grasping at straws.
Zack Cozart, SS CIN – Well it’s not like you weren’t warned about Cozart multiple times in these pages, right? You weren’t getting any real power from him anyway what with just one home run in the month of April, but now after a 3-for-23 (.130) stretch with no extra-base hits over his last six games, the batting average has dropped from .407 to .329 in the blink of an eye. To paraphrase the late Dennis Green, Cozart is exactly who we thought he was.
Heating Up?
Ian Desmond, 1B COL – Those who were stashing Desmond this whole time couldn’t be happier with the way he’s started his season since coming off the DL. Through his first three games back, he’s 5-for-14 (.357) with two home runs, three RBI and a stolen base. I actually discussed this is yesterday’s Morning Buzz – players like Desmond still have strong trade value in many people’s eyes, so this hot start only enhances that belief. Obviously you’d like to see him do well for you, but if you have other pressing needs and can get someone to pay that pre-injury draft value price tag, you should probably explore it.
Carlos Correa, SS HOU – What a horrendous start to the season as Correa was batting just .196 with one home run and three RBI through April 22. Since then, though, he’s 14-for-42 (.333) with six doubles, two home runs and eight RBI over his last 10 games. While it may still be tough to ever see him reach those crazy projections people had for him last year, he should still prove to be a consistent 20-home run threat and one of the premier hitters at the shortstop position for years to come.
Byron Buxton, OF MIN – What did I tell you? WHAT DID I TELL YOU??? I said once the pressure was completely off this kid he would finally start to produce and that by the first week of May you were going to wish you never gave up on him. Or that you would be ecstatic over sticking with him and just stashing him on your bench. Whichever the case may be, you haters can SUCK IT! Yeah that’s right. Suck it. I’ll happily take hits in five of his last six games (6-for-19 - .316) with one home run and two stolen bases in that span. And it ain’t over. It may take him a little while to pull that batting average above the Mendoza line, but he’s going to continue to work his way back and when he does, manager Paul Molitor will happily move him up in the batting order.
First game starts at 12:35pm ET today so make sure those lineups are set and ready to go! Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!
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