The Daily Bender: The Need for Speed

It’s been a little while since we last checked in on the stolen base department, so now seems like as good a time as any to see what’s been going on. We all remember the lectures we received during spring training about how steals have been down the last two years and we all saw the way that drove the prices up on guys like Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Villar. One month into the season seems like a reasonable amount of time to take a look at the stolen base leaderboard and see if we can’t find ourselves some steals to obtain without being trade-raped by the guys who overpaid for a burner.

Well, for starters, there sure are a lot of names on the above list that look like they can continue contributing to the stolen base category and won’t cost an arm and a leg in trade discussions. Names like Chris Owings, Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips and Kevin Kiermaier still seem to fly under the radar while veteran names like Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner continue to be dismissed due to their age. Even a guy like Keon Broxton, whose slow start turned a ton of people off, can help you out in the category.

Now before you dismiss these numbers based on their small, one-month sample size, you should also understand that stolen bases are actually up this year in comparison to the previous two seasons at this point of the season. The difference isn’t huge by any stretch of the imagination, but, at this time in 2016, both the American and National League average of stolen bases per team was 12. This season, the AL average is 13 and the NL average is 15. So long as you continue to see the numbers trending upward, you should always have hope that you can acquire them without the need of guys like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve. It’s a tougher hill to climb at some points, but watch the category over the course of a full season and you’ll see just how easy you can move up just by adding one or two minor contributors.

Also, pay attention to which teams are most aggressive right now. Barring a managerial change, that trend should continue throughout the season. Arizona, Milwaukee, Cincinnati and even the Yankees have multiple players on this leaderboard right now. While their teammates might not be accruing as many steals, it doesn’t mean that they don’t have a few under-the-radar guys to watch for down the road. Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks has some speed, as does Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have guys like Domingo Santana and Orlando Arcia while the Diamondbacks also have players like Brandon Drury and Nick Ahmed who can sneak a few here and there. Just because you don’t see them on the leaderboard right now doesn’t mean they can’t make an appearance within a few weeks.

Is it the Catcher or the Pitcher’s Fault?

One of the things I’ve been doing this season is track the number of stolen bases allowed per team and the ones victimized the most are the Pirates, Brewers, Padres, A’s, Royals and Astros. While many will point to the hurlers for not holding the runners better, having a high leg-kick or for throwing too many changeups and sliders in the dirt, you have to look at the catchers as some of the primary culprits. Would it be a surprise to anyone to learn that five of the six aforementioned teams have catchers with traditionally the worst caught-stealing percentages?

Francisco Cervelli, Stephen Vogt, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis had some of the lowest percentages last year and the year before. Jett Bandy and Austin Hedges are both rookies so it’s tough to compare their numbers, but neither of their scouting reports said anything to the effect of, “what a cannon to second base!” The one anomaly remains Salvador Perez who, last season, had one of the highest caught-stealing percentages in the league and teams literally stopped running on him after a while. We tried to find out why earlier in the season when we saw him struggling, but the only thing we could come up with was the knee injury he got during the World Baseball Classic. But he hasn’t missed any time and he continues to suck at throwing out runners.

If you’re looking to acquire stolen bases while keeping your search off the radar, start focusing on divisional opponents. Maybe Delino DeShields holds his job in Texas. The fact that he faces Vogt, McCann and Gattis so often should have you licking your chops. Or how about the Cardinals? Dexter Fowler? Aledmys Diaz? Getting to run on the Pirates and the Brewers is pretty tasty. Just ask the Reds.

The list actually continues further down and you should definitely start paying attention to which catchers are struggling the most right now. Maybe they get it eventually, but until they do, you need to exploit. I try to go over these lists every week on the SiriusXM show and usually Wednesday is my day to do it. But if you can’t catch it weekly there, we’ll try to do it at least monthly in these pages.

Good luck and I’ll see you all in the money this year!