The Daily Bender: Going Down?

One of the great mysteries of fantasy baseball is figuring out exactly when the hot streak will begin for a particular player. You can look at all the match-ups, research all the trends, study all the data available and still not catch it. Sometimes you can get there early on in the streak, but having the foresight to see it coming before it happens is a near-impossibility.

Equally important, though not nearly as exciting, is knowing when to finally cut bait on someone. It’s usually a little sadder which is probably why it’s a less-thrilling moment. You’ve got some sort of an affinity for a guy, you expect a certain level of production when you draft him and now you’re sitting here in month of May wondering what the heck happened. You look at the data and suddenly realize that not only are things not going your way now, but the handwriting on the wall indicates things won’t be going your way in the future either. It’s a sad occasion, but it’s time to say goodbye.

Goodbye Carlos Gonzalez

He looks absolutely atrocious right now. Sure, you can say the .225 BABIP is suppressing his average and a few lucky bounces could turn everything around for him, but you’d just be fooling yourself. He could even have a bust-out week during this Coors Field home-stand but it would only delay the inevitable. Look at the steady increase in soft contact over the last few seasons. Look at the diminishing isolated power numbers. Look at the spike in ground balls which has now pushed his GB/FB rate up over each of the last four seasons. That 40-homer season looks more like a last-gasp death rattle now than it did a turning point to say health was no longer an issue and he was ready to return to his power-hitting ways. His plate discipline numbers, his swing rates and most of his other peripherals show there’s been no change in his approach, so the fact that he seems completely incapable of putting good wood on the ball falls squarely on his diminishing power skills.

To make matters worse, the Rockies current roster could very easily do without CarGo soon enough. No one expects Mark Reynolds to continue at this torrid pace, but you certainly cannot take his bat out of the lineup. That’s pushed Ian Desmond to the outfield and while Gerardo Parra is the one riding the pine right now, what happens when David Dahl returns? He’s the blossoming power/speed combo CarGo used to be and the club needs to cultivate him as a player. Since he’s also a lefty bat, the Rockies will ultimately have to choose between the two and considering the need for youth and upside, Dahl should win out.  

As has been rumored for at least two years now, the Rockies are probably looking to ship CarGo off to a team seeking veteran outfield help. Even if Reynolds falters, the team could shift Desmond to first where he was originally intended to play and Parra could fill in. Nothing seems to be lining up right for Gonzalez here and that is sure to spill off into your fantasy team if you’re not careful.

Goodbye Julio Teheran

My apologies to the guy who asked either in the comments section or in the forums about Teheran. I have had a change of heart after examining the numbers a little more closely. Yes, the new ballpark scares me. When you look at the home/road splits for Teheran’s ERA over the last few seasons, you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about:

It’s tough to explain the anomaly of last season’s splits, but as you can see from 2013 through 2015, he was much more effective in the pitcher-friendly confines of Turner Field. Obviously ERA is no longer considered a great stat to track, but even if you look into his peripherals, whether it’s strikeout percentage xFIP, walk rate or WHIP, the results are the same. He’s better at home than he is on the road. Now with SunTrust Park obviously built for Freddie Freeman and other left-handed bats, Teheran is in trouble. Sure, he could still be used to stream while on the road in pitcher-friendly parks, but you didn’t draft him to be a streamer.

You can add to that the drop in his K-rate, his increased walk rate, a disgusting xFIP and a consistent HR/9 that sits above 1.00 and you’ve got the recipe for a pitcher in trouble. You may be able to sell him on name alone if someone isn’t paying attention, but your window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Act now while you can still tell your league mates that he’ll snap out of it.  

Goodbye Jake Arrieta

OK, one more. Why not? I was never a big Arrieta fan to begin with. Well, actually, when he was first dealt to the Cubs, I was pretty psyched for him to get out of Baltimore and the obvious shift to the NL would help him with both strikeouts and his ratios. But while he managed to pitch like a beast in 2015, you had to see the handwriting on the wall last year. His velocity was down, he wasn’t getting as much movement on his pitches and he had to stop throwing his cutter as much. At 89 mph, you can understand why. That, in turn, pushed his strikeout rate down and his walk rate up as he no longer felt comfortable attacking hitters as he once did.

This season it’s gotten even worse as the velocity is down even more and there’s even less movement on his pitches. His changeup is completely ineffective, his curve doesn’t break like it used to and hitters are just teeing off on him now. And unfortunately, for those who drafted him as their SP1, there doesn’t seem to be improvement on the horizon. He may fool people every so often if he’s facing a lineup like the Padres, but this is simply not a pitcher you want to start regularly. Oh man…can you imagine what’s going to happen in Wrigley during the summer when the ball is just flying out of the yard? Eeeewww!

Do yourself a favor and shop him hard after his first good start. Of course, that moment may never come.