The Cubs' starters stink. Vernon Wells stinks. Matt Thornton? Saying he stinks would be too kind. Will any or all of these “failures” turn around their early season woes?

ERA STRUGGLES

I know it's early, way too early to make snap judgments of any kind as I keep saying everywhere, but did anyone else realize that the best ERA amongst a Cubs' starter belongs to Matt Garza at 5.68? Carlos Zambrano is sporting a 6.11 ERA which actually looks good when compared to the 6.30 mark of Ryan Dempster. Amazingly the trio has a combined record of .500 (3-3). It will get better Cubs' fans – remain patient with the group.

SHOULD YOU PANIC WITH VERNON WELLS?

I've been getting questions about Vernon Wells and his awful start to the year for the Angels, and people are rightfully concerned when a guy goes 5-for-49. Derek Jeter went 0-for-32 at one point in 2004 and he still hit .292 on the year. Wells is no Jeter, but the point should suffice. Guys go into slumps all the time, they just get blown out of proportion early in the year because the players overall numbers end up looking so atrocious. In what follows I'll give a few thoughts on why I wouldn't panic with Wells.

(1) Wells owns a career average of .278.

(2) Wells did hit .245 in 2007 and .260 in 2009, but in his other seven seasons he's hit at least .269.

(3) Since 2002 Wells has averaged 587 at-bats a year. If we posit that Wells will match his worst average of his career, .245, and have 587 ABs, that would mean he would hit .258 the rest of the way. If we posit that he will reach his career average of .278 then he would bat .294 the rest of the way.

(4) Wells has also failed to go deep this season. However, he has averaged 25 homers the past nine years. Sure he's had seasons of 15 and 16 in that time, but he's also socked at least 23 long balls six times.

Wells will be fine, so buy low if the opportunity presents itself.

FARNSWORTH OR THORNTON?

Matt Thornton, a love of mine (in a platonic way of course, but you knew that), has just gone through the worst two week stretch of his life. Over his last four appearances Thornton has a blown save in each outing as well as two loses. On the year he has a 7.71 ERA and 3.21 WHIP while batters have hit .407 off him (for the sake of a comparison, and to point out just how preposterous his luck has been thus far, if you add up his batting average against for the past two years you end up with a with a mark of .408). He's obviously lost his 9th inning role, and with the bad taste it's left in Ozzie Guillen's mouth we're right to ponder whether or not he will be given another chance in the role despite the fact that he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last three years (for how good he has been see the Mailbag: April 7th, 2011 piece). How a mere 4.2 innings can change everyone's opinion so quickly is beyond me. Would you drop Chris Carpenter from your rotation after he gave up eight runs in 4.0 innings in his last start? Hell, that's an ERA of 18.00 which is more than double the mark of Thornton. But I digress...

Kyle Farnsworth has been a star so far for the Rays (2.08 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, two saves), but again, it's tough to get too excited about 4.1 innings. Still, it's looking like my selection of  Farnsworth in the 29th round at the FSTA Draft in Las Vegas in January – a pick that drew some derision from those in attendance – may not have been that bad after all. A performer who has always followed bouts of success with failure, Farnsworth has pitched very well since the start of the 2010 season – 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.48 K/9, 3.42 K/BB. However, there are a couple of issues to bring up with Kyle. First, even with the putrid work of Thornton this season his numbers since the start of the 2010 season are better than those of Farnsworth in the same time: 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 11.57 K/9, 3.50 K/BB. Are we going to let 10 innings at the start of this season determine the value of these two hurlers? Second, even though Farnsworth has looked strong so far, there is no guarantee that he will be able to hold down the 9th all year for the Rays, not with arms like Joel Peralta, Jake McGee and eventually J.P. Howell in the mix.

I'm sticking to my guns here and saying I'd still prefer Thornton over Farnsworth (skill vs. role). I freely admit I may end up looking like a fool on this one, but I'm going to do what Ozzie Gullien won't – I'm going to believe the three year body of work of Thornton versus throwing him under the bus for an awful 4.2 innings.

By Ray Flowers