Just like we discuss on the show every Monday, at some point, you have to start believing in what a player is doing if there’s a certain degree of consistency with which he is doing it, right? I’m not saying you have to go all in and believe he’s about to start shattering records, but more in the line of believing that, even with a certain amount of pull-back or regression, the drop-off isn’t going to be significant enough that you should be looking to abandon ship. We’ve looked at a number of players off to hot starts for the season, but now here at the end of May, it just might be time to put that doubt away and start embracing. Of course, to show just how much you have to embrace one, we also have a few examples of…well…we can call them “I told you so’s.”

Still Killing It

Zack Cozart, SS CIN – This can be a tough pill to swallow if you’ve watched/owned Cozart for the last couple of seasons, but the level of play cannot be ignored. He’s followed up a solid April in which he batted .352 with one home run, nine RBI, 11 runs scored and a stolen base with an even better May thus far as he’s hit .350 with three homers, 10 RBI, 15 runs scored and a stolen base in six fewer games. And he’s doing it with a reduced BABIP and an improved strikeout rate. While things should start to level off once his .400 BABIP comes down more, his improved plate discipline and strong contact rates should keep him at a level fantasy owners cannot only trust, but enjoy as well.

Avisail Garcia, OF CHW – I’ll admit it…I dismissed the hot start here, having been a former owner of the disappointing outfielder. Maybe it’s the motivation of not wanting to be part of the fire sale or maybe it’s just a maturity thing that needed time to develop, but his follow up to a hot April, has been rock solid to date. Despite a reduced BABIP here in the second month, Garcia has shown the next step was taken by the continued improvements to his plate discipline. He still can’t draw a walk to save his life, but he’s cut back on the strikeouts immensely, and he’s still making solid contact. The swing rates are still a tad high, but his aggressiveness at the plate is one of the things helping him right now so we wouldn’t want him to change that too much just yet.

Marcell Ozuna, OF MIA – I was all set to embrace Ozuna’s start to the season but remained skeptical once Craig Mish from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio wanred me of him. Mish knows more about the Marlins than any other analyst I know on a personal level, so his word meant something. But after Ozuna has posted a .329  average with five home runs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored here in the month of May, I’m starting to think Mish’s response when asked about Ozuna was more steeped in recency bias than anything else. Everything Ozuna has done in May, from isolated power numbers to plate discipline, have all been improvements from what he’s done in years past.

Dallas Keuchel, SP HOU – The recent trip to the DL with a pinched nerve in his neck gives me some pause here, but if it’s as minor as the Astros are making it out to be, then we shouldn’t have anything to worry about. From the improved command and strikeout rate to the uber-elite ground ball rate, Keuchel continues to pitch out of his mind. I was concerned about how much he was getting batters to fish outside the zone and while that has definitely pulled back, he seems to be containing hitters with a solid pitch mix and great connection with his catchers. I’ll trade anyone if the price is right, but I’m definitely less interested in shopping Keuchel as I was a month ago.

Falling Off the Map

Eric Thames, 1B MIL – Obviously we expected some pull-back given the way Thames opened the year, but May has been a serious disappointment for a multitude of reasons. Obviously the level of production has been a serious disappointment as he went from a .345 average and 11 home runs in April to a .240 average and just two home runs in May. Now the question is whether or not we would have seen this pull-back had Thames been healthy. He was dealing with some hamstring and knee soreness throughout the early part of the month and then got hit with strep throat shortly after he returned. Now, here at the end of the month, it’s another leg issue, this time a cramp. If Thames doesn’t snap out of this funk soon, he’s destined to join the ranks of those one-month wonders like Chris Shelton.

Trea Turner, 2B/SS WAS – We’ve kind of been over this a bunch now, and between the hatred for Turned exhibited by both my co-hosts, Real Talk Raph and Dave Loughran, we’ve probably heard it all. If not, feel free to check out my article from Saturday’s New York Post as that about covers it as well. Keep in mind, it’s not that I’m hating on Turner as a ballplayer. I think he’s got tremendous skills. The problem is we fantasy analysts just can’t get past the wasted value because people were taking him in the first round. Taking Turner wasn;t the mistake. Taking him as a first-round pick was.

Khris Davis, OF OAK – When Davis exploded for 42 home runs last season, there was a lot less skepticism than I thought there would be. Rather than dismiss the effort as a one-year fad, analysts continued to discuss his hard contact rates and ability to spray the ball to all fields. When he opened this season with 10 home runs in March, it was business as usual. He was only batting .268 and still striking out close to 30-percent of the time, but again, no one flinched. This was what we were programmed to accept. However, here in the month of May, Davis is hitting just .162 with only three home runs. A quick glance at his splits last year show a horrible April with a killer May and then steady production the rest of the way. It looks like we’ll have to see what June brings before we fully pass judgment, but if he doesn’t pick it back up, then there might be cause for some legit concern.

Masahiro Tanaka, SP NYY – He didn’t exactly start the season off in style, but feel that his recent nightmares warrant some sort of discussion here. When someone asks me about Tanaka, I feel like Morgan Freeman at the end of Seven, trying to keep Brad Pitt calm as he continuously screams, “What’s in the box?” I want to give good news, but I’m not entirely sure what’s in there. My gut is telling me it’s all bad, but I’m holding out just the slightest amount of hope that it’s not the severed head of Gwyneth Paltrow. But his last outing has really got me scratching my head here. They’ve been tweaking some of his mechanics, most recently a change to where he stands on the rubber, and that didn’t even come close to working. I don’t want to sit here and endorse benching, but you may have to watch some of his match-ups a little closer until he fully rights the ship. For this week, at least we can hopefully enjoy a start against the offensively-challenged Royals.