Statistical Nuances from the Nomadby Michael Pichan the Fantasy Nomad
Welcome into the realm of Fantasy Football analysis where the focus is on unearthing information that will help your Fantasy Football team gain an advantage over of the competition. Each week, I will dig through the data, so you don't have to, to provide a deeper explanation of what happened, uncover why those things happened, and whether we should expect those things to continue to happen.
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers- Brandon Lloyd led all wide receivers in snaps (82), Hakeem Nicks (79), Victor Cruz (78), Demaryius Thomas (77), followed, strangely by Julian Edelman (75)
- Target leaders: Danny Amendola (16), Hakeem Nicks (out this week) and Victor Cruz (15), Dwayne Bowe (14), and Brandon Lloyd and Percy Harvin (may have had more if he weren't bothered by leg cramps) each had 13 targets
- Reception leaders: Danny Amendola (15), Percy Harvin (12), Victor Cruz (11 without a drop), Hakeem Nicks (10), then Donnie Avery and Brain Hartline both with nine catches.
- Yardage leaders: Hakeem Nicks (199), Victor Cruz (179), Danny Amendola (160), Vincent Jackson (128), then DeSean Jackson (114).
- YAC'em, top receivers in Yards After the Catch (YAC): Danny Amendola (83), Hakeem Nicks (76), Victor Cruz (75), Percy Harvin with another top five finish (71), then Steve Smith Panthers (55).
- Brandon Lloyd: 9 rec., 111 yds., and 0 TD. The Data= After two weeks Lloyd is fifth in the league in total targets and eight in receptions but has yet to score a touchdown. What to Make of It: Despite often being shadowed by one of the top DB's in the league, Cardinals Patrick Peterson, Lloyd still got his share of targets and receptions, unfortunately Lloyd has yet to score a touchdown and has the 40th lowest YAC total and 79th lowest YAC/rec. amongst wide outs. Lloyd isn't known for breaking off big plays, but with the loss of TE Aaron Hernandez Lloyd should become even more of a focal point of the Patriots offense, and thus increasing his chance of getting into the end zone going forward and hopefully eclipsing his five touchdown total last year (all of which came after week seven).
- Kevin Olgetree: 1 rec., 26 yds, and 0 TD The Data=38 snaps, 30 passing plays, and 1 target compared to a team high of 11 in week one. What to Make of It: Don't blame Olgetree for his lackluster week two stat line. Despite being on the field for eight more snaps and eight more passing plays he was only targeted one time because Romo attempted to get Jason Witten (11 targets) and Miles Austin (9 targets) more involved, albeit not very successful as Witten and Austin only combined for nine catches in those 20 targets. Also, don't bail on Ogletree just yet. The increased number of snaps is a good sign and you also have to consider the Cowboys played one of the better defensive teams in the the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks defense. The same fall off after Laurent Robinson's first good game with Cowboys occured last year, lasting two games, before Robinson went off, as I mentioned in detail in last week's Statistical Nuances from the Nomad.
- No surprise that Eli Manning led all QB's in drop backs with 51, followed by Tom Brady and Drew Brees (50), then Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel (49)
- Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger were tied for first in completion percentage at 77.44%, Christian Ponder's career best 77.1% came in second, followed by Philip Rivers and rookie Russell Wilson at 75%
- Passing Touchdown leaders: Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Sam Bradford, and Eli Manning each threw for three touchdowns.
- Total Passing Yards: Eli Manning with his ridiculous 510 yds was 137 yds. better then Carson Palmer's 373 passing yards. Next, was Michael Vick (371), Drew Brees (325), and hold on to your chair for the next one....Brandon Weeden finished fifth with 322 passing yards
- Completions of 20 yards or more: Eli Manning (4), Andrew Luck, Matt Cassel, and Josh Freeman (3)
- Total Yards, not including Yards After the Catch (YAC): Eli Manning (317), Michael Vick (273), Josh Freeman (190), Tom Brady (189), then Sam Bradford and Matt Cassel (171)
- NFL Passer Rating Leaders were Cam Newton (129.2), Andy Dalton (128.2), Ben Roethlisberger (125.1), Ryan Fitzpatrick (120,1), then Philip Rivers (119.8)
- Sacked the most in week three were Jay Cutler (7), Andy Dalton (6), Matt Cassel and Aaron Rodgers (5), then Tom Brady and Christian Ponder (4)
- Brandon Weeden- 26 for 37 322 yds., 2 TD, and 0 INT The Data= zero INT's, 7 for 12 in completions of 10 yards or more, What to Make of It: It was a nice bounce back for the rookie in Week Two, but it did come against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fourth most passing yards to date, and has yet to make an interception. I wouldn't put too much into this performance other than it was a nice step forward for Weeden and may show that wide outs Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi may have some value in deep PPR leagues
- Robert Griffin III- 20 for 29 206 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT The Data=RG3 rushed for 82 yards on 11 carries and two touchdowns. What to Make of It: Despite the great Fantasy stat line from Giants QB Eli Manning, RG3 actually finished as the top Fantasy point getter amongst quarterbacks in week two. Griffin appears primed to be a consistent top five to ten Fantasy quarter back each week because he is showing he can function in the pocket, as well as his ability to rack up rushing yards and touchdowns.
- Christian Ponder- 37 for 35, 245 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT The Data= Career best 77.1% completion rate, fourth most completions, and a top 10 NFL Passer Rating of 114.6. What to Make of It:Â Ponder is on pace for a 75.8 completion percentage (expect some regression) and over 4,000 yards passing, this after he had completed just under 55% of his passes per game last season (34th worst in the NFL last season) for only 1,853 yards in 11 games. In two games this season, Ponder has completed over 74% of his passes, whereas last year his best completion percentage in a game was a 68%. Also, last season Ponder completed less than 60% of his passes in seven of the eleven games he played in. I believe that Ponder's improved success, this season, is most likely to continue as he was limited in his time to prepare for last season due to the lockout, the Vikings offensive line has improved slightly, he is showing a good report with WR Percy Harvin and TE Kyle Rudolph (see below), and the addition of WR Jerome Simpson next week gives him an added weapon, which could propel Ponder into becoming a low-end QB1 in Fantasy.
- LeSean McCoy lead all RB’s again in snaps with 69 followed by Ray Rice (70), Arian Foster (58), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (54), then Willis McGahee and Andre Brown (53)
- Arian Foster topped all backs in carries with 28, right behind him was Reggie Bush and Marshawn Lynch (26), LeSean McCoy (25), then Willis McGahee (22)
- The top pass catching running back, again was a Darren, but this time it was Darren Sproles (13), followed by Arian Foster, Ray Rice and Browns RB Chris Ogbonnaya (6) with nine RB's tied for fifth with four receptions.
- Darren Sproles also led all running backs in targets (14) followed by Ray Rice (9), Arian Foster (7), Chris Ogbonnaya (6), and three RB's tied for fifth with five targets apiece.
- Andre Brown: 13 carries for 71 yds., 1 TD and 2 rec. for 19 yds. The Data= 53 snaps, 14 rushing, and 27 passing plays (compared to David Wilson's six snaps). What to Make of It: With Ahmad Bradshaw out for Thursday's game it appears that Andre Brown should be the primary back and would make, at minimum, a good FLEX play this week versus a Panthers defense that has allowed the fifth most rushing yards of any team in the NFL.
- Reggie Bush: 26 carries for 172 yds., 2 TD and 3 rec. for 25 yds, and 0 TD. The Data= 2nd in the league in yards/game, sixth in rushing attempts, tied for third in rushing TD's, fifth in targets, and tied for third in receptions. What to Make of It: Reggie Bush is the focal point of the Dolphins offensive attack both, on the ground, and through the air. So long as Bush stays healthy, (he only missed one game last year after missing eight in 2010), he could end up as a top overall RB and one of the biggest steals of the draft. (Bush's preseason Yahoo! projected ADP was 43. He currently sits as the 2nd OVERALL rated player, in most league formats).
- Alfred Morris: 16 carries for 89 yds., 0 TD. The Data= 34 snaps, 16 rushing plays. What to Make of It: At first glance, it may appear like some of the shine, from week one , came off of Alfred Morris in week two. I caution you not to take that outlook, as Morris almost dropped a hundred yards again in week two after coming up just four yards short of 100 in week one. You can use, what seems to be the main stream perception, that Alfred Morris may have just been a flash in the pan, as an opportunity to try and buy low on him, especially in standard leagues. (Side Note: Evan Royster was on the field for nine more snaps then Roy Helu in week two after Helu played 16 more snaps in week one).
- Giants TE Martellus Bennett led all TE’s in snaps with (83) followed by Rob Gronkowski (81), Brent Celek (76, who was first last week), Kyle Rudolph (70), then Jermaine Gresham (68).
- Ravens TE Dennis Pitta lead all TE’s with 15 targets, Jimmy Graham (12, 2 DP's), Celek and Jason Witten tied for third (11, Witten led all TE's in drops with three), then Martellus Bennett and Tony Gonzalez tied for fifth (10).
- Dennis Pitta and Brent Celek led all TE’s in receptions (8), Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez tied for second (7), followed by a three way tie for fifth Rob Gronkowski, Owen Daniels, and Raiders TE Brandon Meyers (6).
- Martellus Bennett led all TE's in Red Zone Targets (RZ) with four, followed by Chargers TE Dante Rosario who cashed in on all three of his RZ targets
- 14 different tight ends caught a touchdown in the first game of the 2012 season. In week two 17 different tight ends caught a touchdown pass.
- Â Dennis Pitta: 8 rec., 65 yds., and 0 TD. The Data= 15 targets (22 on the season), 8 receptions (13), he was on the field for 10 more passing plays in week two, and caught 29% of the Ravens passes. What to Make of It: Pitta's time on the field, especially in terms of passing plays, coupled with increased targets suggest that his pattern of production will continue., which make him a more viable TE option then the likes of Fred Davis, Marcedes Lewis, Tony Moeaki, or Greg Olsen
- Martellus Bennett: 5 rec., 72 yds, and 1 TD. The Data= Bennett was on the field for 83 of the 84 snaps, and 48 of the 54 passing plays. What to Make of It: Bennett was only on the field for 28 of the Giants 36 pass plays in week one and he was targeted four more times in Week Two. Bennett isn't the surest handed pass catching tight end, but his involvement in the offense should continue to increase, especially with Hakeem Nicks being in and out of the lineup. It appears that Eli likes to look for Bennett in the RZ (see above), thus I would recommend Bennett slightly ahead of Pitta going forward.
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