Second-Year Players

By Kyle Elfrink

People will sell their souls to roster rookies. However, what about second-year players that people seem to discount completely if the player is coming off a down season? We'll take a look at some under-the-radar potential plays in their second season as well as looking at some big name performers from 2014. What will they do for an encore?

* Note: There is no write-up on Jose Abreu. Ray Flowers has a Player Profile about the slugger. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE 

Dellin Betances, RP, Yankees
2014 Numbers – 5 wins, 1.40 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 1 save, 135 Ks (13.5 K/9) in 70 games covering 90 innings

Let’s assume that the Pinstripes use the newly-signed Andrew Miller outside the 9th inning. Miller will get a few saves here and there because of lefty-lefty situations, but, overall, this should be Betances’ gig. And, frankly, if we make it through the spring and the youngster is ticketed for the 9th, you’re looking at one of the first 12 closers off the board. The K numbers are legit and the peripherals are solid. There’s always the question of mental makeup with a new closer, but here’s one that you should be willing to take a gamble on.

Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
2014 Numbers - 11 HR, 66 RBI, 50 R, 2 SB, .259/.306/.394 in 148 games

There are plenty of decent, right-down-the-middle numbers to be found here. There’s just nothing beyond that. There are three numbers you won’t see up above, which are worth discussing. Castellanos whiffed in almost one of every four at-bats (24.2 percent) last year. He also had a BABIP of .324. But that number makes some sense, since he had the second-highest line drive-rate in all of MLB (28.5%). Swirl it all together and you probably have a near-repeat of his first go-around. Castellanos will continue to bat in the lower part of the Tiger lineup and that will also keep the counting numbers from jumping too much.

Brock Holt, 3B, Red Sox
2014 Numbers - .281 BA, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 68 R, 12 SB, .281/.331/.381 in 106 games

Holt handled seven different positions last year, only failing to catch or pitch an inning. The lefty-swinger also handled lefties (.293), but after a call-up surge in May, he collapsed down the stretch. Over his final 192 at-bats, Holt had one homer, drove in eight and hit a measly .212. Holt will move around the diamond as a super-utility guy and come up with a few big moments over the course of the year, but he might end up spending most of the season on your league’s waiver-wire in mixed leagues.

Collin McHugh, SP, Astros
2014 Numbers – 11 wins, 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 157 Ks (9.1 K/9) in 25 starts covering 154.2 innings

Working for his 3rd team in as many years, McHugh emerged as an absolute stud down the stretch. He didn’t lose a game after July 27th, posting seven wins alongside a 1.77 ERA. Of course, few noticed because, well, he's an Astro. Consider yourself on notice. He’s not a fastball guy, relying instead on an off-speed combo of sliders and curves. That means that the K’s could slip and you should expect similar movement on the other marks. But, don’t totally bail on McHugh. He can provide slightly above-average numbers for owners. 

Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays
2014 Numbers – 11 wins, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 174 Ks (9.3 K/9) in 31 starts covering 168 innings

Odorizzi is part of the ‘Core Four Plus More’ in the Rays rotation, joining Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Chris Archer. Surprisingly, he might be the best strikeout arm in the quartet. The much-discussed addition of a split-change pitch (at the behest of Cobb) to his arsenal pushed Odorizzi up that chart. Hitting the strike zone was a battle at times for the righty and he’s less than eager to make another push up the ladder. The ERA can come down, but getting him as a 4/5 fantasy starter should be the goal.

Danny Santana, SS/OF, Twins
2014 Numbers - 7 HR, 40 RBI, 70 R, 20 SB, .319/.353/.472 in 101 games

The early read on Santana for 2015 is that he’ll mostly handle duties at shortstop. Here’s another early read… he won’t come close to collecting his rookie season numbers. You can already list the tiny man as “Mr. BABIP regression for 2015.” His BABIP in year one was .405. Instead of boring you with the historical facts, just note that no one repeats such numbers. His minor league numbers don’t portray him as anything special, so the best mode of operation is to totally stay away from him at the draft table, at anything other than a greatly reduced cost.

Matt Shoemaker, SP, Angels
2014 Numbers – 16 wins, 3.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 124 Ks (8.2/9) in 27 games covering 136 innings

Caveat emptor. Don’t bother with the encyclopedia on that one. Just know, that you shouldn’t be expecting anything resembling a repeat of Shoemaker’s astounding 2014. Entering the year, no one considered Shoemaker to be anything more than “a filler” or “an emergency option” for the Angels. The emergency came last year and, to his credit, he answered the bell. He worked the strike zone as well as anyone in baseball and kept hitters guessing throughout much of the summer. When you look at his arsenal, there’s nothing close to elite. Don’t buy into the numbers and be wary of his comeback from knee surgery.

George Springer, OF, Astros
2014 Numbers - 20 HR, 51 RBI, 45 R, 5 SB, .231/.336/.468 in 78 games

Springer’s power and skill set are both 100 percent legit. He’s a cornerstone of the expected Astros' resurgence. But, like so many freshmen, Springer has a lot of ground to still cover. Let’s start with 114 strikeouts in 295 at-bats. That’s alarmingly high. A nagging leg issue didn’t help matters and probably kept him from 30 fence jumpers. Give him that number for 2015. The RBIs will jump, the runs will be better and the average can sniff .250. Many drafters will be willing to strike earlier than warranted, so if you have interest in Springer, you will need to grab him a round or two earlier than his profile suggests.

Marcus Stroman, SP, Jays
2014 Numbers – 11 wins, 3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1 save, 111 Ks (7.6/9) in 26 games covering 130.2 innings

After spending most of May coming out of the Blue Jay ’pen, Stroman proved the future was now over the final four months of his rookie season. The 5’9” righty allowed two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 20 starts. He’s the one guy in the Blue Jay rotation that profiles as a possible ace and he sports the bulldog mentality that all managers like to see in their top man. His 2.84 FIP was one of the best in the league and he shows extraordinary control (1.9 BB/9) for a hurler in his early 20s. Stroman can equal last year’s marks, if not exceed them, across the board.

, SP, Royals
2014 Numbers – 14 wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 159 Ks (7.8 K/9) in 30 starts covering 183 innings

Ventura pulled off 30 starts in his initial season. First off, you just don’t see that from rookies. Second, this was a rookie who dealt with an elbow issue in May. A shoulder issue followed in October, reminding all of us that Ventura’s slight frame, slinging motion and hard-throwing ways that could lead to stability concerns. He eventually was forced to stop trying to hit 100 mph on every pitch and that caused his K-rate to dip. There’s plenty of talent—and danger—here. If you go in his direction, make sure you eyeball plenty of support behind him in your fantasy rotation.

NATIONAL LEAGUE 

Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets
2014 Numbers – 9 wins, 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 144 Ks (9.2 K/9) in 22 starts covering 140.1 innings

At the advanced rookie age of 26, deGrom piled up 11 starts with one or fewer runs allowed. So, where did this come from? After all, his career minor league ERA was over 3.50 and his K-rate was under 20 percent. deGrom pounded the strike zone (66 percent of his offerings) with a full-set of five pitches and he was a ground ball engineer in the minors. There is likely to be some regression here—he has no overpowering pitch and was operating beyond his established levels—and there should be some consideration about how he will fair if throwing 200 innings, but deGrom can survive as a low double-digit winner with an ERA in the mid 3’s and a K-rate near eight.

Ken Giles, RP, Phillies
2014 Numbers - 3 wins, 1.18 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 1 save, 64 Ks (12.4 K/9) in 44 games covering 45.2 innings

With Jonathan Papelbon still hanging out in Philly, Giles initial value is capped. Looking at his first rodeo in the bigs, there was little that Giles didn’t do. His lone loss of the season occurred on August 23rd when he served up three walks (a minor-league issue for him) in an inning-and-a-third versus St. Louis. From that spot through the end of the season, Giles walked a pair, whiffed 20, allowed just four hits, one earned run, grabbed a win, a save and five holds … in 14 innings. Giles profiles as a solid, third fantasy reliever with a holds total that will add up, exciting K numbers and a chance to become 2015’s version of Cody Allen.

, OF, Reds
2014 Numbers - 6 HR, 48 RBI, 72 R, 56 SB, .250/.292/.355 in 152 games

Two of the nine numbers above stand out - stolen bases and games played. Everything else—seven of them—are nothing to get excited about. Still, those 56 stolen bases are still 56 stolen bases, right? Let’s raise them up to 65 this year (while recalling that he was thrown out on the base paths more than any other player in baseball—23 times). Meanwhile, you shouldn’t be confident in growth on the other marks. The .250 average could slip into the .230s (Hamilton hit a measly .200 in 230 at-bats in the 2nd half), his plate discipline is terrible (34 walks vs. 117 whiffs) and the HR/RBI totals could be a high-water mark for his career. He’s obviously someone who can make a difference in the steals category, but if you go in his direction, you need to go extra hard for average, homers and RBIs throughout the rest of your draft.

Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs
2014 Numbers – 7 wins, 2.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 47 Ks (5.3 K/9) in 13 games covering 80.1 innings

Do you ever have one of those days where everything goes right? Well, Hendricks had one of those summers where everything went right. His holy trinity of success was advanced control, flip-flop speeds and using his sinker on half his pitches. Overall, Hendricks made sure the ball found every mitt that backed him up on the diamond and there are few guys who can repeat that over-and-over for a full season of 200 innings. He’ll break in as a Cubs’ starter for the beginning of the year, but shouldn’t be grabbed in mixed leagues with the expectation that you will be starting him 30 times in 2015.

Ender Inciarte, OF, Diamondbacks
2014 Numbers - 4 HR, 27 RBI, 54 R, 19 SB, .278/.318/.359 in 118 games

Inciarte made his MLB debut in May and he did nothing to earn the attention of fantasy players over his first few months, sporting a slash of .244/.277/.294. But, August and September were a much different story as Inciarte powered up for a .308/.354/.416 slash over his final 237 plate appearances. Even with that run, he is not assured of a full-time gig this year, but the left-handed hitter could be the strong side of a platoon. Playing time and a so-so hitting profile are threats for Inciarte, but the ability to sniff 30 steals would make him an attractive late-round option.

Joe Panik, 2B, Giants
2014 Numbers - 1 HR, 18 RBI, 31 R, 0 SB, .305/.343/.368 in 73 games

After the crash-and-burn, Hindenburg-like experiment with Dan Uggla, the eventual World Champions turned to Panik. He’s never been anything special (despite being selected in the first round of 2011 draft), so the infielder gets knocked with the usual platitudes about “makeup,” “good glove,” “positioning,” “makes contact,” etc. Assuming he’s planted down in the batting order, he’s purely an NL-only option that might net you a decent average. Fantasy-wise, Panik is just like a Melissa McCarthy movie… there’s nothing to promote here.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates
2014 Numbers - 7 HR, 33 RBI, 50 R, 14 SB, .235/.307/.343/.650 in 89 games

You’ve heard about “The Book.” Last year we got to see what “The Book” looked like when it “got out,” and the victim of its relentless attack was Polanco. He streaked flames to start his Bucs career, posting a .306 average alongside three homers, 12 RBIs and 17 runs in his first 21 games. Then, “The Book” struck. Polanco crawled to the finish line with an average of .203, just four shots, 21 RBIs and 33 runs in his final 68 games. The talent is absolutely there, though. Polanco’s biggest hurdle will be understanding pitch sequencing and much of that will come courtesy of experience. You can bet that ’15 will be littered with runs of stardom and fits of struggles. In the end, Polanco should produce solidly in four of five categories while hoping to lift the average to league-average. He’s still a wonderful dynasty prospect.

Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs
2014 Numbers - 5 HR, 20 RBI, 11 R, 1 SB, .292/.330/.573/.903 in 24 games

The pro-rated totals from last year will make you take note. Soler’s September call-up showing works out to over 30 homers and more than 120 RBI with a run of 600 plate appearances. Although not to that level, there is plenty to be interested in here. Nearly everyone makes a comparison between Soler and his fellow countryman, Yasiel Puig. Certainly both bring electric ability, a few maturity concerns, and fear of ongoing injury issues (it’s the leg for Soler). Soler is likely a shade below the “best of Puig,” but with a starting job assured going into the season, Soler could pounce for 20/10 and an average near .270. With all that in mind, we’re looking at a top 40 outfielder going into drafts.

Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals
2014 Numbers - 12 HR, 42 RBI, 52 R, 20 SB, .249/.292/.398 in 113 games

Some of Wong’s power might be legit. His swing is built to lift a few balls over the right-field wall every once in a while and there could be a lift to mid-teens this year. Average-wise, expect steady improvement that may have him sniffing .270, and the thefts are due a slight boost. He’ll have to show more patience at the dish, but overall, you’ve got a middle infielder that has a fighter’s chance at solid to above-average marks in all five categories.