This article was fostered when I received the following tweet from @BaltimoreJay1:

Is it just me or is someone trying to trade me Starling Marte for Paul Goldschmidt the dumbest offer?

According to NFBC ADP data, Goldschmidt has an ADP of 2.3 while Marte is down at 23.6. Clearly the person getting Marte here is getting ripped off. Is that always true though? Let’s dig into it.

The first thing to consider is the context.

What if the Goldy owner also rostered Joey Votto in the third round. She could then afford to deal one of her first baseman, could she not?

What if the deal was in a league with three starting outfielders? Then getting Marte here is blah. But what if the league starts five outfielders? In a 5-OF starting setup Marte is a much more valuable piece. Conversely, what if the league starts first and third base but doesn’t utilize a corner infield spot? That takes some value away from first and third basemen, does it not?

What if the goal of Team Marte is steals? Goldy is an impressive stolen base threat for a first baseman having gone over 15 steals in three of four seasons, but check out the differences between the two. Over the course of 162 games, for their careers, Goldschmidt averages 17 steals, Marte 39. That’s a massive difference if one needs to add steals.

What if the league is a points league versus a 5x5 league? What if that league gives the standard of four points for homers but awards three points per steal and not the standard of two? That would give a bonus to Marte that he normally wouldn’t receive and would close the gap between the two. The scoring system matters.

I’m not going to sit here and say that I have Marte listed ahead of Goldschmidt in the Fantasy Alarm Rankings. I do not.

I’m not going to sit here and say I would take Marte ahead of Goldy in a snake draft. I would not.

However, the piece that is missing in most cases when it comes to trades is context. As I tried to point out above, it’s not always about ‘is Player A better than Player B?’ Why? Let me draw a football parallel.

In fantasy football you start six positions, though kicker and defense are basically throw aways, so you basically have four spots that matter in QB, RB, WR and TE. In baseball there are eight positions that matter (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, RP, SP). That’s obviously twice as many.

In fantasy football your starting lineup consists of 10 spots (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF). In fantasy football the standard is 23 spots (14 hitters, 9 pitchers). Yeah, way more to consider in fantasy baseball.

In fantasy football all players record points on one continuum. It doesn’t matter if you run for 87 yards or catch 87 yards of passes, you get the same point total of 8.7 (1 point for 10 yards). It doesn’t matter if you throw passes. You still receive points in the same point system as runners and receivers. Things are totally different in fantasy baseball. In a standard roto fantasy baseball league there are 10 categories you need to record points. You need power, speed, strikeouts, saves etc. It’s totally different (a points league in baseball matches much more closely to the football setup). When dealing with five offensive categories for baseball, versus just one category in football, you can see that it’s more difficult to fill five categories in baseball than it is one in football.

Please remember all of this once the seasons starts. You don’t want to “lose” a trade, but at the same time what your team needs is what matters most. If you’re winning homers by 48 but losing steals by eight you might be able to deal a Goldschmidt for a Marte. You don’t get bonus points for leading a category by a huge margin in roto, you merely have to lead it (i.e. whether you lead a spot by 48 or 4 – you still record the same point total in the standings). It’s not always about “winning” the trade. Really, it’s not.

Context matters in every decision.

Nothing is done in a vacuum.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).