A STRUGGLING VETERAN

Player: Victor Martinez
Stats: .297-17-54-38 with a .842 OPS
Pace: .297-30-95-67 with a .842 OPS
Last 30 days: .204/.263/.367

When great hitters are performing well people just forget about them. With the amazing start of VMart this season people simply stopped worrying about him, put him in their lineup, and moved on to shore up other holes.

Alas, he’s been a bum the last 30 days, which at 37 and a half years of age should cause you some concern.

You should also be greatly concerned about his homer pace as he’s hit more than 25 homers just once in his 14 years. His 15.9 percent HR/FB rate would be his second best mark in 15 years as he’s only gone over 13.4 percent only one other time.

It’s unlikely Victor will hold on to his 23.8 percent line drive rate. That would be his best mark since 2003 and it’s well above his 21.2 percent career mark. His .309 BABIP is also just off his .311 career mark while his .297 average is just off his .302 career rate. At least this mark seems about right.

As for the counting numbers, I have concerns. Not only is he 37.5 years of age, Martinez appeared in just 120 games last season. His body is seemingly always beat up, which given all the years of catching makes sense. I’m not suggesting you run for cover if you own Martinez, but realize that his second half production simply doesn’t seem likely to match the numbers he posted in the first half.

A STRUGGLING YOUNG VETERAN

Player: Josh Harrison
Stats: .270-3-41-34-14 with a .668 OPS
Pace: .270-5-72-60-25 with a .668 OPS
Last 30 days: .179/.207/.286

Harrison has appeared 84 times at second base this season. He appeared at third base 72 times last season. He appeared in the outfield 22 times last season. He wears lots of gloves to boost his fantasy value. However…

Harrison is has just stopped hitting, completely. There’s never any power, so he needs to keep his average up while getting on base. He’s not doing either thing of late. Can’t say it’s surprising though. On the year he has a .270/.299/.368 slash line which looks rather similar to his career line of .281/.314/.408. It’s certainly closer to his career ratse, what he’s done this season, than the .315/.347/.490 slash line everyone seems to remember from 2014. He’s not that guy, even if he looked like it to start this season.

His 0.22 BB/K rate is a direct match for his 0.25 career rate.

His .668 OPS is an acceptable level for a guy with a .723 career mark.

His 36/35/29 breakdown of batted balls for pull/center/opposite is very close to his career levels (39/35/26).

After being caught 15 times the last two seasons he’s 14-for-15 in steal attempts this season giving him his first shot at a 20-steal season.

He’s versatile and steals some bags, but overall he’s just not a potent mixed league threat.

A STRUGGLING YOUNGSTER

Player: Odubel Herrera
Stats: .287-10-33-50-12 with a .789 OPS
Pace: .287-17-57-87-21 with a .789 OPS
Last 30 days: .245/.284/.412

Herrera has been great this season. After going 8/16 last season with 64 runs scored Herrera is on pace to go 17/21 with 87 runs scored. That’s a huge win if he does that. However, that pace does mask a few things that really stick out.

Herrera had a 5.2 percent walk rate as a rookie. The mark this season is double that rate at 11.5 percent. Everyone was all stoked early on with the walks that Herrera was racking up. Well, the last 30 days his walk rate is down to 5.5 percent. If we take things back to the start of June the rate is just 6.5 percent. Folks, remove the insane 22.1 percent mark he posted in April and we’re left with a guy who owns a 7.7 percent mark. That’s also why his OBP since May 1st is .338, not the absurd .462 mark from April.

Given the totality of his game I would posit that Herrera’s unlikely to reach the homer total he’s on pace for. I would also be very surprised if he were to reach the runs scored mark as well. As the walks continue to diminish there is also some concern about his ability to reach the SB mark of 21.

The time to sell on Herrera was months ago. He’s settling in as the new Melky Cabrera, not that there is anything wrong with that of course.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).