Chris Archer has tossed a quality start each of his last four outings as he, finally, starts to round into form. Archer has walked just four batters the last three games while allowing two homers in four contests. Cannot fully trust him like you were hoping to back in March, but he’s pitching much better now than he was in the early going. Check out the numbers his last seven starts since the calendar flipped to July: 3.18 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.13 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 and 0.99 HR/9. Finally.
Jake Arrieta has a 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.04 K/9, an elite series of numbers. However, he hasn’t been overly sharp of late, not in the least. Over his last eight starts he has a 4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, a mere 7.66 K/9 and a poor walk rate of 3.47. Still, he looked great against the Athletics Saturday with eight shutout innings, and in three of four outings he’s allowed one, two and zero runs. Sounds like he’s almost “back” – that is until you notice that he has 14 strikeouts his last four games including 2-straight with just four. Hard to think expecting greatness the rest of the way is going to be rewarded.
Homer Bailey has made two starts since his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s lasted 8.2 innings with a 7.27 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Can’t make any determination from two starts of course, but over and over again the data keeps coming in to be wary of guys when they first return from TJ surgery.
Jose Berrios has made six starts with 29 punchouts in 26 innings for the Twins. His two starts, since being recalled, were a quality start (3 ER in 6 IP) and a disappointing effort Saturday (4 ER, 5 IP). Great arm, bright future, but he still can’t seem to find “it” at the big league level. His 4.50 BB/9 rate is double the type of stuff we saw from him in the minors in years past (it was elevated at 3.05 this season at Triple-A) and the homers are a flyin’. Berrios has “heavy” pitches with sink, and over the course of 543.2 minor league innings he allowed 0.51 homers per nine. Over six starts this season with the Twins he’s allowed seven homers leading to a 2.42 HR/9 mark. When that number recedes, and it obviously will substantially, the success should follow.
Andrew Cashner made a foursome of strong starts and everyone seemed to immediately forget that… he’s still Andrew Cashner. Here are his numbers his last six outings after his beat down at Coors over the weekend: 6.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.57 BB/9, 2.30 HR/9. I’m a fan of the skills, always have been, but he’s never learned how to consistently get batters out from start-to-start. Just hasn’t.
Doug Fister has allowed one or no runs in three of four starts. The other time out it was six in 4.2 innings against the Yanks. He’s only won two of his last eight decisions but the Astros aren’t going to complain about Doug’s 10-7 record, 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. You shouldn’t complain either. That’s all he is – an ideal streaming option in mixed leagues.
Matt Garza, and I can’t remember writing about him in forever, has won his last two outings. He’s also allowed three, two and three runs his last three starts. Still has a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through 10 starts though, and that K/BB ratio of 1.68 doesn’t inspire an ounce of confidence. League specific option, nothing more.
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Corey Kluber has been nails since a bad start on July 3rd. Since then he’s allowed one run, no runs, three runs, no runs and two runs. He’s also thrown at least seven innings in 5-straight games and seven of eight outings. His last four trips to the hill have resulted in eight, eight, seven and eight strikeouts. His ERA sits at 3.22 on the year, he has more than a strikeout an inning (153 in 151 frames), and his 1.01 WHIP would be a career best. He’s really, really good.
Carlos Martinez had a rough go Saturday allowing seven runs, six earned over five innings. The previous start he allowed four runs over seven innings. That’s 11 runs, 10 earned, over 12 innings his last two times out. Martinez has also walked 10 batters his last three starts, and in three of five outings he’s allowed four walks. He’s also allowed four homers his last four starts. Now the strikeouts. He’s failed to eclipse five strikeouts in 4-straight outings and his 7.40 K/9 mark is a full batter off his career rate. Add that all up and we’re talking about a guy who is fighting it at the moment.
Carlos Rodon is 2-8 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in a terribly disappointing season. Some pluses though. He’s gone six innings in each of his two starts since returning from the DL and looked sharp over the weekend with two walks, seven strikeouts and two runs (one earned) allowed. Seeds are here for success. He has 105 strikeouts over 104.1 innings. He’s cut his walk rate from 4.59 last year per nine down to 3.11 this season. That’s what I like to see. I don’t think he will continue to be beaten by the big fly so much, his 15.2 percent HR/FB is elevated, and his .348 BABIP will certainly come down over time as well.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 8 PM EDT, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
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