A few weeks ago I was in Arizona for the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR). After drafting a solid quad in the AL-only league, my life went in the dumpster. You likely have heard by now but Jeff Mans and I both came down with a hellacious illness. Before you go thinking that something funny was going on, realize that Lawr Michaels and Lenny Melnick also came down with infirmities. Arizona doesn’t like us. I’ll still go back next March though.

I’m feeling better as I write this. I’m not great by any means, but I’ve been taking vitamins like they were going out of style as I’m trying to do everything I can in order to avoid getting sick again. Hopefully my immune system is kicking now that I’m off to New York for Tout Wars. While I’ve done well in LABR finishing 2nd and 3rd in the last three years, I’ve yet to have any success in Tout Wars. That’s going to change this season. I can feel it.

Some thoughts as I head to the draft.

ON-BASE PERCENTAGE

This is an on-base percentage league (we remove batting average). All other nine traditional fantasy categories are used. An OBP league obviously boosts fellas like Bryce Harper (.460) and Joey Votto (.459) substantially up the charts. Which other OBP options do you need to know about?

There were only six full-time players who posted a mark of .400 last season: Harper, Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. Only one other player was over .380: Anthony Rizzo.

Only 46 players out of the 141 who had at least 502 plate appearances last season posted an OBP of at least .350.

If we lower the qualification to 300 plate appearances, the follow batters deserve a second look due to posting an OBP over .350.

Miguel Sano (.385)
Joe Panik (.378)
Alex Gordon (.377)
Freddie Freeman (.370)
George Springer (.367)
Andre Ethier (.366)
Yonder Alonso (.361)
Dustin Pedroia (.356)
Yasmani Grandal (.353)

This format crushes the following hitters: Salvador Perez (.280), Ian Desmond (.290), Alcides Escobar (.293), Jay Bruce (.294) and Brett Lawrie (.299).

TRAVEL

I’m sorry to those of you that live on the right coast, but New York is a dirty city – and not the kind of dirty I like either (bow, chica bow wow). It’s massive too. Makes San Francisco look quaint, and that’s hard to do. It’s also got an undeniable energy too it. If you’ve never been you have to go at some point, even if I don’t get the piling of the junk on the street or the thin crust pizza. Sorry, I’m a deep dish man.

Oh, and one other thing, a free plug. Don’t know which airline you fly on but check out Virgin America. Best airline going if you ask this guy. Seats are comfy, a bit extra leg room (important when you stand nearly 6’4”) and free access to a music catalogue. Can’t beat it.

Follow this link to check out the entire Player Profile Series.

TOUT WARS PLAN

Been thinking about this a lot, and here’s what I’ve come up with.

I’m often a bit too passive at the draft looking for bargains at the auction. That can work if the draft comes to you and the result can be an absolutely killer squad. However, in leagues with other experts, bargain shopping really doesn’t work unless you are very, very lucky. The other 14 folks in my 15-team mixed league auction are going to know the player pool. They are going to have plans. They aren’t going to make mistakes. If I go into that room with the approach of bargain shopping – well – we’ve seen the results the last few years and it hasn’t been impressive.

So this season I’m going to step out of my comfort zone a bit. I’m not going full Stars and Scrubs, but I’m also not going to be afraid to be bullish on my guys. If I have to pay $2 above my cost for a guy, why not do it? If I end up with three big ticket players instead of my customary two, that’s OK. I won’t be timid early just for the sake of looking for a bargain.

I also won’t be afraid to target rookies. I’m not going to overpay for guys like J.P. Crawford or Orlando Arica that have already been demoted, but I’m also not going to completely shy away from them if the bidding is reasonable. As we’ve seen of late, teams are more willing to grant young players a shot at playing time much quicker than they used to be. If the player is ready, and his talent is elite, teams seem to have little problem calling up said player if he can help the big league club right now. Gotta give those rookies a chance if the fit is correct.

I always feel like I’m capable of putting together a solid pitching staff regardless of how much I spend on the arms. I’m going to believe in that. Trusting myself to be good in this zone should also allow me a bit more freedom to spend on the offensive side of things if need be (folks seem to be worried about pitching depth, something I don’t quite get given that there is more pitching depth than ever before).

So, I’m going to be aggressive. I won’t be afraid to pay full price on players. I won’t dismiss minor leaguers / rookies. Let’s see how it goes.

Here I come New York.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).