KNOWN VS. UNKNOWN

Would a season of 31 homers, 94 RBI and 85 runs scored be a good one? I’m asking because I posed the following question on Twitter, and predictably, was called out for it.

What has Kyle Schwarber done? How is he worth more than Jay Bruce to you?
@baseballguys

How dare I suggest that an All-Star, a guy who has hit 30-homers four times and driven in 85 runners five times, is as good a bet in 2017 as young player, coming off a torn ACL, who doesn’t have a half season of at-bats in the big leagues yet? How dare I?

I will posit that Schwarber is a better OBP option.
I will also posit that Schwarber has more talent.
That doesn’t mean he will be more productive in 2017.

Schwarber has a .242 batting average in 71 career games. Hate to tell ya, but Bruce has a .248 career mark. And before you throw at me that Bruce doesn’t hit lefties well, note that Schwarber was embarrassingly bad against lefties during his rookie season with a .143/.213/.268 slash line. Jay Bruce has been way better than that against lefties (.226/.292/.419).

Schwarber won’t be stealing bases as he has little base stealing speed, and is coming back from ACL surgery. Bruce can steal a base, at least a little, and has averaged eight thefts per 162 games.

As for the power... it will be close. I would point out that even with his lightning tower power, Schwarber will have a difficult time maintaining the 24.2 percent HR/FB ratio he posted as a rookie. It’s a really big number. Oh, and it deserves to be mentioned... Schwarber appeared in two regular season games last season. Projecting his 2017 performance based on his 69 games 2015 results seems a bit of a stretch for me.

Don’t forget that Schwarber won’t be catcher eligible in the vast majority of leagues.

Oh, by the way, per 162 games for his career Jay Bruce has averaged 31 homers, 94 RBI and 85 runs scored. Good luck hitting all three of those numbers in 2017 Kyle Schwarber.

THE UNKNOWN

I participated in the Rotoworld magazine 12-team mixed league draft last night. You will have to check with the mag when it comes out for the results but I would list two things. (1) Trea Turner was taken 13th overall. (2) Trevor Story went 25th overall. I knew there would be love for the two guys, but two top-25 selections for guys who have 415 plate appearances (Story) and 368 (Turner)? I love talent as much as the next fella, but that folks, is simply way too rich for my blood. Turner isn’t going to repeat his .388 BABIP or 16.7 HR/FB rate, while Story was on a 217 strikeout pace last year. Way too risky for me and that cost.

HEALTH WOES FOR HURLERS

Jaime Garcia says he will pitch for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. Can’t think anyone with the Braves is happy to hear that, at all. Garcia, one of the most injury prone pitchers in baseball, is quite frankly being selfish. If he wants to pitch for his country, fine, but he man enough to sign a contract that pays you per start in the majors or something like that. Oh wait, you didn’t do that? You didn’t sign a contract that doesn’t pay you if you get hurt? Shocker. Garcia hasn’t thrown 180-innings since 2011, and though he threw 171.2 innings last season he finished with a 4.67 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, his worst effort pretty much ever. So go pitch some extra innings in meaningless game. Good thinking Mr. Garcia.

Eduardo Rodriguez tweaked his knee in Winter Ball. Consider me shocked. This guy doesn’t seem capable of taking the ball every five games. He’s always seemingly dealing with some health issue, and that’s a big concern for a young player whose body already seems unsteady. E-Rod has a 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, with a 13-13 record, over two seasons and 228.2 innings. Talented? Sure he is. Ready to take the next step? Simply don’t see that.

 

 Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).