Tyler Chatwood has a 3.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. That’s about the best you can expect from a Rockies hurler (he’s also 11-9). You know the story by now, don’t you? Chatwood has been a disaster at home with a 5.67 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .298 BAA. He’s been masterful on the road going 7-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .192 BAA. Yep, A Tale of Two Cities.

Marco Estrada has seen his stupendous season predictably slow as the innings have piled up. He has an 8.25 K/9 ratio and a 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers play in every league. However, the negatives are piling up. (1) His 3.26 BB/9 ratio is a 6-year high and well above his 2.64 career rate. Over his last six outings the mark is 4.13. (2) His HR/9 is up to 1.25 which is still below his career mark of 1.34. However, the number is quickly rising as it’s 2.22 per nine over his last six. (4) Estrada’s ERA is up to 3.68 on the season. The mark his last six games is 6.99. (5) Estrada’s BABIP continues to climb. The mark is still just .241, below his .257 career mark. Since returning from injury nine starts ago his BABIP is .324. The last six the mark is .356. I have a hard time thinking he stems this tide.

Kevin Gausman was a player I pleaded with you all to keep the faith in back on June 21st in Patience Please when you all said he stunk and was a waste of a roster spot. Let’s see how he has performed since then. Over his last 14 starts Gausman has a 3.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and has gone 7-5. He’s also struck out more than a batter per inning, 9.96 per nine, while keeping the walks in check (2.57 per nine). I’m not always right, admittedly, but I really hope you read P.P. and took it to heart.

Robert Gsellman has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts. Check out the 4.76 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in three starts. Ho hum.

Hisashi Iwakuma has tied his career best with 15 victories for the Mariners. The 35 year old righty isn’t a star, never has been, but he remains a stable source of production. Only once in eight starts has he allowed more than three runs and in that time he’s the owner of a 3.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 4.86 K/BB ratio. Vintage Iwakuma.

Few are pithing better than Jon Lester right now. Over his last eight starts he’s gone 6-0 with a 1.17 ERA with a 0.88  WHIP, a 1.84 BB/9 mark and 53 strikeouts over 53.2 innings. Hard to pitch much better over eight starts than that, no matter what the name on the back of your jersey says.

Joe Musgrove has made seven starts for the Astros going 2-4. He’s pitched really well four times. He’s also been bombed three times. The result is a 5.31 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. You don’t want that anywhere near your team. The biggest issue has been the big fly as he’s allowed eight in seven starts, including three his last two games, leading to a 1.85 HR/9 mark. Everyone wants to steam him. I would hesitate, especially when he’s on the road (8.71 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, massive 3.05 HR/9… even if it’s only over 20.2 innings).

Tanner Roark, my hat’s off to ya. I didn’t think you had this in you. The righty went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2014. Last season he was limited to only 12 starts and 28 appearances out of the bullpen as the Nationals thought they had five better starters for most of the season. Thrust back into the rotation this season, Roark has made 29 starts and one relief appearance for the Nats. He’s now 14-8 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s been pretty much the same pitcher as he was in 2014 actually with a few minor tweaks. Roark has seen his K/9 rate improve by exactly a batter up to 7.25 per nine this season. Alas, the increased strikeout rate has been accompanied by an increase in his walk rate. In ’14 the mark was 1.77 per nine and this season it’s way up at 2.95 per nine. Offsetting that increase is a huge improvement in his ground ball rate which has improved from 41.4 percent to 49.2 percent. Good work Mr. Roark.

Carlos Rodon is a rollin’ right now. Hard core. Over his last seven starts he’s allowed more than two runs just a single time. Over his last seven starts he’s posted seven quality starts. He’s the owner of a 1.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.24 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 rate in that time. Dude is ballin’. Did I already say that? You heard it here first – he’s going to be on everyone’s breakout list next year and they will all be quoting this tremendous run to the finish line as the reason.

Blake Snell is going in the exact opposite direction than Rodon as he’s limping miserably to the finish line. The good news is that he owns 82 strikeouts over 77 frames. He’s also allowed a mere 0.58 HR/9 mark as he’s really minimized the long ball. Beyond that it all falls apart. His 1.04 GB/FB ratio is league average. His 1.64 WHIP is hideous. His 5.62 BB/9 mark is ghastly. Over his last six starts he’s been even worse with a 5.32 ERA, 2.23 WHIP, a 7.36 BB/9 rate and 17 runs allowed over 22 innings. He’s also failed to go four innings in four of those six outings. Just awful.

Yordano Ventura has a great arm and a 10 cent head. The story has been written many times. He went 13-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 156 Ks last season over 163.1 innings. This season he’s 10-10 with a 4.26 ERA and 120 Ks in 162.2 innings. Where have the strikeouts gone as his K/9 rate has fallen two full batters? He’s also seen his 10.4 swinging strike rate the last two seasons fall to just 8.9 percent this season. He’s been better since the break, but still not great. At least he’s not getting blown up as he’s posted a 3.03 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP over 11 starts, only allowing more than three runs twice, though both of those efforts have come in his last three outings.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).