GIANTS SIGN CUETO

The Giants seemingly took themselves out of the Alex Gordon sweepstakes but it’s not because they are cheap. They chose, as they often do, to pay for pitching and not hitting (they already awarded Jeff Samardzija with a 5-year, $90 million deal this offseason). The Giants awarded right-handed starting pitcher Johnny Cueto a six year, $130 million contract to slot into their second starting rotation spot to give them as good a lefty/righty duo as there is in baseball (Madison Bumgarner is obviously the lefty). What did the Giants buy with their $130 million?

*Note: Cueto’s contract is for $46 million the first two seasons with a player option following the 2017 campaign when he will be 31 years old. There is also a team option for a seventh season at the end of the deal.

 

Since 2011…

Cueto is second in baseball with a 2.71 ERA.

Cueto is third in baseball allowing 7.46 hits per nine.

Cueto is fourth in baseball with a 1.08 WHIP.

In three of the last four seasons he’s thrown at least 210 innings.

From 2011-14 Cueto had an ERA each year under 2.85. Last year the mark surged to 3.44 and that includes some terribly poor work with the Royals: 4-7, 4.76 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 81.1 innings. With that slowdown everyone seemed to forget that the previous four seasons Cueto was one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball. Let me bring some perspective.

Cueto had a 7.47 K/9 last season.
His career mark is 7.42.

Cueto walked 1.95 batters per nine last year.
That was the best mark of his career.

He had a 1.13 WHP in 2015.
His career mark is 1.18.

He allowed 0.89 homers per nine last season.
His career mark is 0.92.

He had a 1.19 GB/FB ratio in 2015.
His career mark is 1.28.

His BABIP was .281 last campaign.
His career mark is .276.

His left on base percentage was 73.7 in 2015.
His career mark is 76.4.

His xFIP was 3.78 last year.
His career mark is 3.85.

The crash and burn is a concern, as is the lowest ground ball rate in five years at 42.5 percent (the mark was at least 46.2 percent the previous four years). Still, the totality of his work pretty much suggests that Cueto should be good to go in 2016, especially since he will be back in the NL throwing his pitches in a solid environment in San Francisco. He shouldn’t be overlooked in mixed leagues as I’ve heard some suggest they they don't have much confidence in him at the moment.

That leaves the Giants with one of the better rotations in baseball. Check it out: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Cain & Jake Peavy. Chris Heston (12 wins, 3.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 177.2 innings) becomes the Giants Tanner Roark, a guy that offers solid depth if need be. 

CISHEK TO CLOSE?

The Mariners added aging but dominating righty reliever Joaquin Benoit in November (see Reliever Roulette). Flash forward to December and the bullpen addition was Steve Cishek (you can read about all the signings in the 2016 MLB Free Agent Tracker). I thought, as I assume most did, that Benoit would be in the lead for 9th inning work. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case, not according to GM Jerry Dipoto. Cishek was also quoted saying “"When I heard they were interested in me being closer, I was all in." Huh.

Cishek saved 34 games in 2013 and followed it up with 39 saves in 2014. Then 2015 happened. He saved four games, blew five chances, was demoted at one point, and in the end the numbers were pretty darn poor: 3.58 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.81 K/9 and 4.39 BB/9. All those numbers are well off his career norms: 2.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.55 K/9, 3.42 BB/9. He was much better later in the year, and it certainly sounds like he will get first shot at the ninth inning, and the same way as it seems to be year after year, Joaquin Benoit will have to bide his time in anticipation of working the final frame. 

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Thursday at 8 PM EDT and Friday at 10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).