Let me quote what I wrote about Billy Hamilton in the 2015 Draft Guide written last January. Every one of the following lines in quotes was from that article.

Billy Hamilton cannot hit, not a lick.

Billy Hamilton cannot hit.

Hamilton cannot hit. 

#Awful

#Pathetic

Billy Hamilton cannot hit, at all.

Hamilton can't get on base.

I feel like I'm belaboring the point, so hopefully it's sunk in. Hamilton cannot hit. 

Yes, I really did repeat myself over and over in the piece, and guess what, Billy Hamilton went out last season and – he didn’t hit, at all. Hamilton hit .226 last season with a .274 OBP, two absolutely pathetic numbers, in 2015. In fact, there were only four men in baseball who hit .230 or less with an OBP under .275 in 450 or more plate appearances: Chris Owings, Omar Infante, Wilson Ramos and Hamilton. You don’t want to be part of that group.

Through 1,087 big league plate appearances Hamilton has run like crazy with 126 steals, but he’s also been a comically poor batter who owns an embarrassing slash line of .242/.287/.330. It’s worse than embarrassing actually – he’s been atrocious with a bat in his hands.

Hamilton had shoulder surgery at the end of September last season and was given a 4-6 week timetable for recovery. "That's a great timetable, realistically," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "A couple of weeks in a sling and then some more strenuous rehab, I'm sure, then getting back and doing some baseball-related stuff." That timeline meant that Hamilton should have been fine by December. As recently as March – yeah right now – he was still dealing with lingering issues with his wing, but everyone still anticipates that he will be good to go in April perhaps even for Opening Day as he’s slated to play in the field for the first time Friday. “I don’t think he’s where he was in mid-season as far as throwing goes, but I think he’s well on his way in that regard,” Price said. “It will be something he’s going to be working on, continuing to gain strength in his arm.”

Terrible bat.

Bad wing.

And now this… it sounds like the Reds plan on hitting Hamilton at the bottom of the order, not in the leadoff spot. More from Price.

“I told him I wanted him at the top of the order but he has to be swinging the bat and getting on base at a higher percentage. It’s not a shot across the bow. It’s the reality. You have to have the efficiency to get all those at-bats. He’ll continue to work on things like keeping the ball out of the air, getting his bunts down, commanding the strike zone. He still gives us things we are excited about — setting the table on the other side of the lineup. He’s a prototype of a leadoff hitter, from a speed prospective. We just have to get him on base.”

Price is correct. You need your leadoff man to get on base. As I’ve noted. Hamilton doesn’t get on base. Ever. He’s terrible at it. He shouldn’t be in the leadoff spot merely because he is fast. It’s not 1962. We know better now. The job of the leadoff man is to get on base (and to score runs). Period. Hamilton cannot do that. Therefore, dropping him down in the order makes sense. Note that dropping Hamilton does ding his value. A player loses about 15-20 plate appearance per spot in the batting order he drops over the course of the season. That means if he moves from leadoff to 8th in the Reds order he loses seven spots in the order which means he could lose 105 to 140 plate appearances over the course of 162 games. That’s huge.

So the Reds are doing the correct thing… or are they?

Price made the statement that Hamilton “he has to be swinging the bat and getting on base at a higher percentage.” So the Reds are considering putting Joey Votto in the leadoff spot? Nah, they are thinking about going with… Zack Cozart. “There is a good shot that he’ll be hitting leadoff,” Price said. I mean no disrespect but Mr. Price, you’re bonkers. You just noted that Hamilton and his .287 OBP is no good for the leadoff spot so your turning the top spot in the order to Cozart who has a career on-base percentage of… wait for it… .284! I ever use exclamation points, but it’s warranted here don’t ya think? Price and the Reds are moving to THE WORST OPTION IN THEIR STARTING LINEUP to take over the leadoff spot. Let me say it thusly. Billy Hamilton cannot hit, at all, but his ability to hit is still better than the decision making process of Mr. Price.

Just remarkable.

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Hamilton’s value does go down a bit with this news. It really doesn’t matter where he hits in the order though, his game won’t change. He won’t hit homers, he won’t drive runners in, he won’t produce in batting average and he won’t get on base. He will run and is as good a bet as anyone to swipe 50-bases, even with losing plate appearances if he sticks in the bottom third of the order.

Cozart gains value as his move up in the order will allow him to hit in front of the Reds big boppers. Cozart can’t hit either, he’s long been one of my favorite whipping boys, and please don’t send me a note saying that Cozart figured “it” out last season and that his pace for 25 homers, 70 runs and 70 RBI last season means he will get to those numbers if he appears in 153 and not the 53 that injury limited him to last year (he had knee surgery). Cozart sees an increase in his outlook in NL-only leagues for sure but I’m still not touching him at all in mixed leagues.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).