Player Profile: R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey had a magical 2012 season going 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 230 strikeouts. So magical in fact that it's appropriate that I write about him as we approach the most magical time of the year with the winter holidays upon us. However, as I suggested in the 2013 BaseballGuys Draft Guide before the season, Dickey was doomed to fail if the expectation was a repeat of his 2012 effort in 2013. In fact, I wrote an 1,800 word critique on Dickey before the 2013 season began in the Draft Guide in which I detailed the reasons to be worried about Dickey's outlook in 2013. Was I correct in my assumption that a fall was ahead? If you watched the 2013 season you know I was, but let's dig into things a bit with the knuckleballer.

As I pointed out in the original piece, I was exceedingly concerned about Dickey's strikeout rate. From 2010-12 Dickey's K/9 mark was 6.83. Somehow that mark rose to 8.86 in 2013. As I noted, from 2004-11 Dickey never struck out six batters per nine innings. How was he going to repeat an 8.86 mark? Answer? He was never going to. His K/9 rate fell to 7.09 last season, a massive dip, but it was still his second best mark since 2004.

Point number two of my concern with the knuckleballer was his walk rate. From 2010-12 Dickey had a 2.19 BB/9 mark, an exceedingly low total for any hurler let alone a guy who who really only throws one pitch. Guess what happened in 2013? His walk rate went up. What a shock. Dickey still had a solid 2.84 mark last season, but it was also a four year high.

Put the strikeouts and walks together and there's another level of concern. As I noted in the first article, “Dickey had never posted a K/BB ratio over 2.48 in his career before last season when that mark jumped to an elite 4.26.” Look at the number he posted last season – 2.49. And this number highlights another fact. Dickey's mark on pitches thrown inside the strike zone was 48.7 percent of all pitches in 2013. That was a career worst mark. The fact is that he had a hard time locating his pitches, a hard time throwing strikes, and that's what burned him especially when the ball was put in the air.

Another issue with Dickey in 2013 was the loss of the ground ball. Dickey posted a 1.00 GB/FB ratio, a poor mark for a hurler who owns a career rate of 1.33. Moreover, Dickey had reached his career average each season from 2009-12 before last year's nosedive. Unfortunately for Dickey, the loss of grounders was accompanied by an increased fly ball rate (his line drive rate was only one tenth off his career mark). Dickey sported a 40.5 percent fly ball rate, the only time in his career in a season of 10 innings pitched that the mark was over 38 percent. This is key for a knuckler. When a knuckleball is down in the zone it moves like crazy and batters have little shot of making solid contact. When a knuckler floats to the dish and is up in the zone it gets hammered. Dickey's ball was up in the zone in 2013. He got hammered. After 3-straight years with a HR/9 mark under 0.95, Dickey's HR/9 rate exploded to 1.40, the highest it had been since 2004. That increase in his fly ball and homer rate led to his ERA moving upward from a career best 2.73 to 4.21, his worst mark since 2009. The move to the AL is partly to blame, as is a return to “normal.” After all, Dickey does own a 4.02 career ERA. And before you chalk it up to him being unlucky remember this. Not only was his line drive rate only a tenth off normal, but his BABIP was .265 which was a career best in a season of 25 innings.

Two positive notes for Dickey's 2013 effort.

Dickey posted a solid 1.24 WHIP, though that mark was also a four year high. It was pretty standard fair though for a guy with a 1.31 career mark.

Dickey threw 224.2 innings. That's 3-straight years of 200 innings pitched. Only 11 other men can make that claim.

Look, Dickey is a solid hurler but you have to keep things real. Knuckleballers are up and down, just like their ball, from start to start, month to month, and year to year. They don't offer consistency despite what Dickey did in 2012. Except it – his effort that season was an outlier. Just the way it is. If we fold that effort into a four year look at Dickey's, from 2010-13, this is the type of hurler we are looking at.

53-41, 3.28 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.90 K/9, 2.92 K/BB ratio

Those are still solid numbers, even if they are well below his 2012 effort. Unfortunately I fear it will be extremely difficult for him to return to those levels in the coming season. Pitching in the AL East doesn't help. Pitching in a ball park that favors batters doesn't help. Throwing just one pitch doesn't help (he threw his knuckleball 87 percent of the time last season). The fact is that Dickey had a career best effort in 2012. Put it out of your mind. Draft Dickey as a 4/5 starter type in mixed leagues if you're interested. For those wondering, Dickey won't end up on any one of my clubs in 2014. Not one of them. I'm not one of the group of those that are interested in this one-trick pony.

By Ray Flowers