PITCHING TARGETS

People ask me all the time, “How did you get so smart about this stuff?” I'm gifted. That's the answer you usually get from me (ask around). The truth, though, is much deeper than that. (1) I played and coached the game of baseball. (2) I've literally studied it since I was five years old. (3) I continue to grow as an analyst (I'm one of the few people in the business who has been covering fantasy sports full-time for 15 years). I don't know everything, but I'll liberally borrow from others that are smarter than me, throw it in the hopper with what I do know and hopefully come up with something that is not only worthy of discussion but something that is understandable and accurate. In what follows, I've tried to do something simple for you by laying out the baselines to look for with pitchers. 

Consider the following hurlers who failed to live up to preseason expectations last year, either because of injury or flat-out poor performance. 

Yu Darvish, Jose Fernandez, Cliff Lee, Kris Medlen, Justin Verlander, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Tony Cingrani, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha

Here are a few hurlers who rose from the depths of the late rounds or the waiver-wire to impress mightily in 2014:

Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Garrett Richards, Henderson Alvarez, Tanner Roark, Dallas Keuchel, Phil Hughes, Jason Hammel, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young, Wily Peralta, Alfredo Simon, Josh Collmenter, Edinson Volquez

Pitching is extremely variable and predicting future success or failure is exceedingly difficult when we're talking about the men who make a living chucking the ball. One of the best ways to address the uncertainty of pitching is to set baselines to give you an idea of which pitchers you should be targeting. There are pitchers that will fall outside of the targets mentioned below that will have success—it happens every year. To be clear, I'm not saying that (A) you should avoid any hurler not on this list or (B) if a pitcher is on the list, he has no chance of failing in 2015. Clearly, both of those statements aren't completely accurate. I would argue that your odds of finding success in the coming season are enhanced if you follow the recommendations that are laid out in this piece, even if there is admittedly no guarantee. 

THE STRIKEOUT

Starters: At least a K/9 of 6.50
Relievers: At least a K/9 of 7.75
2014 Major League average: 7.73

The strikeout is a sign of a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters. It's also one of the main categories in fantasy leagues. The fewer balls that are put in play, the less likely a batter is to get on base—hence the power of the strikeout. Note that in most instances I'm still rather unlikely to roster a starter with a K/9 mark under 7.00 or a reliever with a mark under 8.00.

THE WALK

Starters: A BB/9 mark below 3.20
Relievers: A BB/9 mark below 2.90
2014 Major League average: 2.89

I have no time for hurlers who can't seem to locate their pitches and neither should you. Free passes lead to runs and you want no part of that. When a pitcher cannot locate his pitches, all manner of problems result. 

K/BB SUCCESS

Starters: A K/BB mark above 2.30
Relievers: A K/BB mark above 2.65
2014 Major League average: 2.67

Some big power arms, take the case of Francisco Liriano, impress the hell out of you with their K/9 marks (9.70). However, Liriano often finds strike throwing a foreign concept, as he issued 4.49 walks per nine innings in 2014. The result was a poor 2.16 K/BB ratio, a half batter below the league average. The “stuff” for Liriano is elite, but when I see a guy posting a K/BB mark barely above two, I'm apprehensive about adding him to my fantasy team.

Note: The K/BB is below the league average to include pitchers that don't rely on the punchout heavily. Personally, I'm targeting guys over the league average whenever possible.

GROUND BALL / FLY BALL RATIOS

Starters: A GB/FB mark better than 1.25
Relievers: A GB/FB mark better than 1.50 2014 Major League average: 1.35

If a reliever gives up two hits, a single up the middle and a chopper over the third baseman's head, you likely won't get too nervous. However, if he gives up two hits and they are a homer and a double off the wall, that's going to lead to a lot of runners crossing home plate. A starter can overcome a run here and there with scoreless innings before and after the runs scoring, whereas relievers obviously don't have that luxury, so the more ground balls they can generate the better. 

PITCHERS TO TARGET

What you will find in this section will be four lists of hurlers that you should be looking to target on draft day 2015, because they meet the baselines I've just laid out. While these are targets to look at, I'm not saying you completely eschew hurlers who aren't on the following lists, or for that matter just blindly draft the hurlers on this list without further study. I'm just listing for you the arms that impressed in three or four categories last year that should, health permitting, lead to more success in 2015.

Starters: 6.50 K/9 or better, 3.20 BB/9 or lower, 2.30 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP)

There were 51 men who hit the above baseline marks (listed by batters faced). 

Let's whittle this list down further.

Starters: 6.50 K/9 or better, 3.20 BB/9 or lower, 2.30 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP) PLUS 1.25 or better GB/FB. the list shrinks considerably when we add in the batted ball rate. Only 24 men qualify for this exclusive list.

Other than Mr. Buchholz, who I cannot stand, this is a list of performers who, at least on the surface, possesses skills that should interest you for 2015. 

Let's move on to bullpen arms. 

Relievers: 7.50 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.50 K/BB or better (minimum 40 games pitched)

*Note – there are a couple of starters on this list who also spent time working out of the bullpen.

There were 54 qualifiers (listed by games pitched).

Relievers: 7.50 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.50 K/BB or better (minimum 40 games pitched) PLUS 1.50 or better GB/FB (in some cases, these are the cheap late-round adds that can make a huge difference for you in league specific setups). 

Add in some grounders, and let's see what we are left with 11 men. 

PITCHER STRAND RATES

The big league average for strand rates, more commonly called Left On Base Percentage, is roughly 70 percent. When a pitcher is substantially below that number in one year there is a reasonable expectation the number, and the pitchers performance, will rebound in the following year. Conversely, when a pitcher greatly exceeds that level, he's more apt to see his production decrease in the following campaign. Note that certain pitchers, because of their tremendous skills or lack thereof, may repeat their 2014 efforts even if the number is high (this measure is kind of like BABIP in that certain players can establish a higher than average rate and stay at that level).

Eight men were over 80 percent, a number that is virtually impossible to repeat.

83.1 - Doug Fister
82.5 - Johnny Cueto
81.9 - Cole Hamels
81.6 - Clayton Kershaw
81.5 - Chris Sale
80.2 - Chris Young, Alex Wood

None of those hurlers, other than Clayton Kershaw (80.6) also had an 80 percent rate in 2013. Roughly 5-10 men a year are able to post a number that reaches 80.

No pitcher who qualified for the ERA title (162 innings) had a mark that was 10 points off the baseline of 70. Makes all the sense in the world, if you think about it. If you're that bad, why would a team allow you to make enough starts to get 162 innings? Here are the 11 men who threw at least 162 innings and failed to record a mark of 70 percent.

62.1 - Clay Buchholz
65.5 - Nathan Eovaldi
65.7 - Dan Haren
66.3 - Kyle Gibson
66.5 - Travis Wood
66.6 - Matt Garza
66.8 - Justin Verlander
67.5 - A.J. Burnett
69.0 - Colby Lewis
69.2 - Jose Quintana
69.3 - Hiroki Kuroda

WHEN SHOULD YOU PANIC?

We tend to panic a bit when our players start slowly and the desire to make roster moves is probably higher with hurlers than batters. So how many starts would I give a pitcher before bailing on him? I would suggest 10 starts, though of course that depends on the format and size of the league you are in (it might be five starts in a 10-team league or a H2H setup - if the pitcher isn't one of the first couple that you drafted). It should be noted, though that when a pitcher starts off terribly—not poorly, but really, really badly—he has a long road to climb back to fantasy studliness. Here are the pitchers who had an ERA above 6.00 through the end of April 2014 (unless that ERA is the result of an eight-run, 2.1-inning outing, you should be wary). Were any of these arms strong performers by the time the season ended? The answer is none.

Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez

What about hurlers who had an ERA over 5.50? Any of these guys really round into shape?

Robbie Erlin, Roberto Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer, Brandon McCarthy and Jarred Cosart

Of those eight arms, only the last two, McCarthy and Cosart, rebounded from the rough start to have decent seasons. A slow start can portend a down season for a starting pitcher. For a more detailed review check out the article titled How Much Patience Should One Have.