It's anecdotal information coming from just one league, but have you heard me tell the following story? In 2014 I was in a 12-team mixed league with all the hosts on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I did there what I always do, I loaded up on hitting early. I did take two pitchers in the first seven rounds - Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman - but I didn't draft a single starting pitcher until the 11th round of the draft. When I did take that arm - Johnny Cueto - I was criticized on the broadcast for waiting so long to take an arm and nearly laughed at when I made Cueto the first starting pitcher I selected. Where did my team finish? First place baby. "Well, you have had a great offense then" is often what I hear. Did I? Here were my first three selections: Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Shin-Soo Choo. Yeah, not so much.
The fact is that there is more starting pitching available later in drafts and on the waiver-wire than there is good hitting (an example in the draft I've just brought up is that I rostered Corey Kluber in the 20th round). You know what I'm talking about, don't you? Take a look at some of the names that were scooped up off waivers in many a league last season.
Garrett Richards, Edinson Volquez, Phil Hughes, Jake Arrieta, Tanner Roark, Collin McHugh, Matt Shoemaker, Dallas Keuchel, Alfredo Simon, Jacob deGrom, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Hutchison etc.
Now, take a look at the pitchers that crapped out because of injury (note, that pitchers are more apt to suffer a season ending injury than a player because of the nature of pitching).
Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, Cliff Lee, Matt Cain, Kris Medlen, Mat Latos, Mike Minor, Michael Wacha, Matt Garza, A.J. Griffin, Derek Holland, Jarrod Parker, Matt Moore etc.
So there are multiple reasons to avoid taking a starting pitcher early despite what most "experts" are telling you.
(1) Pitching is harder to predict than hitting.
(2) An injury to a pitcher is more likely to disable that player for an extended period of time when compared to a hitter.
(3) There are always a plethora of late round options available on the hill.
(4) There are likely to be plenty of options on the hill that become true fantasy weapons off the waiver-wire as youngsters are called up and as others are asked to fill more prominent roles in the big leagues with the injuries that occur to the top end guys.
(5) One final obvious but often overlooked point. Whereas batters can help you across all five fantasy categories starting pitchers can only help you in four (no saves). Why not build early with the multi-category hitters early and the more limited pitching options late.
Make sense?
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