MLB Fantasy: ADP Risers and Fallers

Well, it’s Sunday, so it’s time to take a look at some risers and fallers. Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army is in full force and he continues to do great work compiling all of the data. If you want to join a mock draft, send Howard an email at mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com. NFBC also compiles a list of average draft positions for players, which can be found on their website.

Players will continue to fluctuate and just a reminder, these aren’t the rules by which you must abide. If a player has an ADP of 33 and you pick at 34, don’t take him just because he is past his ADP. It’s a rough idea for us fantasy owners to see where, on average, that particular player has been going in drafts. For example, David Price’s ADP is right around 36, according to the NFBC and the Mock Draft Army, but the NFBC illustrates that Joey Votto has been selected as high as the 15^th pick and as low as the 59^th.

Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

David Price, SP BOS (+9.2%) — The price was right in 2015 and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be in 2016. He compiled an impressive 18-5 record last season, alongside a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Price continues to strike batters out—a K/9 above 9.1 each of the last two seasons—and issue very few walks. His K/BB ratio was 4.79 last season and 7.13 in 2014, and his career 3.70 mark shows that this isn’t going to change in 2016. Boston decided to become the third team in the AL East to roster Price, inking him to a seven year deal for a whopping $217 million. For his career, Price has a 1.95 ERA at Fenway Park, so can you really blame him for signing with Boston? His ADP in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army has jumped up to a late-third round pick in a 12-team league, which is similar to that of NFBC. Expect Price to be one of the first five pitchers off the board in your draft and his ADP could continue to slowly creep up in the next week or two.

Dexter Fowler, OF CHC (+10.5%) — Fowler was a very valuable fantasy asset last season as an everyday player for the Cubbies. Despite hitting for his lowest batting average since 2008 (only played in 13 games), Fowler set career highs in home runs (17), runs scored (102) and walks (84). Fowler’s ADP was set to rise, seeing as fantasy owners know where he’ll be playing in 2016. He was a free agent for a long time, but there are concerns for Fowler in 2016. Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Jorge Soler are set to get plenty of at-bats in the Chicago outfield, but manager Joe Madden has already said that Fowler will get his plate appearances as well. Even better for fantasy owners, and DFS players, when Fowler plays, he will likely lead off. Since he won’t see the volume of work he did in 2015, temper your expectations in 2016, but a chance at double-digit homers and steals is rather tough to find in the middle of the 15^th round.

Byung-ho Park, 1B MIN (+8.4%) — The 29-year-old is showcasing some nice skills this spring training, easing the qualms many fantasy owners had with the former Korean League star. Through 19 at-bats this spring, Park is hitting .316 with three home runs and seven RBI. However, he has struck out six times and yet to walk. It’s a nice start to his spring, but you’d be pretty foolish to believe that Park can produce in the MLB like he did in the KBO. Two years ago he hit .303 with 52 home runs and 124 RBI. Park followed that up by hitting .343 with 53 round trippers and 146 RBI. The guy has got plenty of power, but he is going to need time to adjust to pitching here. However, with an average draft position in the 15^th (NFBC) or 16^th (Mock Draft Army) round in a 12-team league, a shot at 25-30 homers with a decent average is something you just can’t pass up. If he continues to stay hot throughout the spring, he will continue to creep up the boards. The Twins could have a pretty powerful offense this season, and if that ends up being the case, Park should be worth the money.

Stephen Piscotty, OF STL (+10.6%) – If you’ve been keeping close tabs on St. Louis spring training games, you will know that Piscotty has been playing really good baseball. He’s hitting .429 through six games, with three RBI and three stolen bases. He’s never been a big threat on the bases, but perhaps his early success in the spring will lead to some extra attempts during the regular season. He’s going to hit first or second in the Cardinals lineup, which should be very good for his run, and possibly stolen base totals. A guaranteed everyday gig may not be in the cards right away, but he will get plenty of chances near the top of the order. Best case scenario for Piscotty would be something along the lines of an average near .300 with double-digit homers and steals. Based on NFBC and Mock Draft Army data, Piscotty will likely go between rounds 16-18 of your draft, which should provide a solid return on investment.

Fallers

Anthony Rendon, 2B WAS (-7.2%) — If you drafted Rendon in the first or second round last year, you were extremely disappointed. Yes, he was a huge bust, but successful fantasy owners have short memories. Forgive and forget, right? Well, in 2016, you can get Rendon in the 7^th or 8^th round of a 12-team league, which gives him an opportunity to be worthy of that pick. He is a prime bounce-back candidate and even though he screwed me last year, I’m a big fan of him this year. In 2014, he hit .287 with 21 homers, 83 RBI, 111 runs scored and 17 stolen bases. Will he reach those numbers in 2016? Probably not, but he will be much closer to those numbers than what 2015 had to show. Rendon will likely hit in the two hole, in front of Bryce Harper, so Rendon should be able to score plenty of runs. In a bounce-back year, a .280 average with 18-20 homers, 70 RBI, 90 runs scored and 10-12 stolen bases is attainable for the 26-year old. Oh yeah, in most formats, he qualifies at second and third base, adding some flexibility when setting your lineup on a daily basis.

Hanley Ramirez, OF BOS (-18.5%) — Ramirez continues to slip in many rankings, which is a good thing for fantasy owners. The more he slips, the better chance there is that he produces equivalent, or better, than where he was drafted. He is hitting .333 this spring and as long as he is healthy and producing from an offensive standpoint, he is going to be in the team’s lineup day in and day out. No one, the Red Sox included, think he is going to win a gold glove at first base, but the team is hoping for at least average defense. Ramirez opened up the season like a bat out of hell, hitting 10 home runs through his first 25 games as a member of the Boston Red Sox. Well, he ended the season with a .249 average and 19 homers. It was a downward spiral for Ramirez, but the chance for a bounce-back is in the cards for the former shortstop and outfielder. Ramirez has been unhealthy in recent years, failing to play more than 130 games in a season since 2012. The 32-year-old isn’t a major threat on the bases anymore, so he will need to produce in other categories for his owners. If he stays healthy for the entire season, he could hit 20 homers with a batting average right around .270.

Yu Darvish, SP TEX (-12.8%) — After missing all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Darvish is poised to return to the Texas rotation in mid-May. As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks during his rehab program and comes back completely healthy, he can be one of the game’s filthiest pitchers. He has a career K/9 of 11.22 and the guy has close to eight pitches. His arsenal is dirty and he has a great ability to keep batters off balance, but the biggest concern for Darvish is that right elbow. He obviously won’t get a full workload this year, but even in a limited fashion, the guy can pay big dividends. There is plenty of risk in taking anyone coming off Tommy John surgery, but the potential reward of getting an ace between rounds 10-12 of a 12-team league is extremely tantalizing. Owners who draft him know they’ll have to wait, but the thought of getting a potential ace in the middle rounds is exceptionally hard to pass on.

Daniel Murphy, 2B WAS (-9.8%) — Let’s make this clear; Do NOT draft Murphy with the expectations that the 2016 Daniel Murphy will be the player we saw in the 2015 playoffs. Murphy hit seven home runs in 14 postseason games, which was a spectacular run. I don’t want to take away from what Murphy did in the postseason, but you’d be foolish to expect that kind of power this season. By seasons end, he’ll have a .285 average with 14-16 home runs. He should definitely steal more than two bases in 2016, especially with the aggressive Dusty Baker as his new skipper. Murphy is likely slipping due to a limited upside, but he is a consistent guy who is going to give you a solid batting average and double-digit home runs.

If you have any questions, the easiest way to reach me is via twitter (@colbyrconway). Best of luck in your preparation.