MLB DFS Pitching Coach: May 15

I find one of the saddest things in life is we often only see our loved ones at weddings and funerals. Instead of visiting them on weekends like we used to in the old days, we now just check their status on Facebook. Instead of being in the photos they post we just click the “like” button. Why am I talking about this?

You see, yesterday I had to attend my grandmother’s funeral. This was the grandmother on my father’s side. They are all from here in Massachusetts. I grew up in Los Angeles and did not move here until I was almost 17. As a result, I never bonded with my grandmother. My cousins had college educations paid for by her, down payments on houses made by her, loans, apartments, cars, you name it, they got it. Myself, when I was eight I asked her for a 1954 Topps Al Kaline rookie card -- which I got (and still have) -- but that was also the last thing I ever asked for. I always felt like an outsider with my father’s side of the family. So you must be wondering why am I whining about this?

At the funeral yesterday they had a nice video with streaming photos and a giant photo board. Between the two they had countless photos of my grandmother with my aunts, uncles, cousins, second cousins, great grandkids, husbands and wives of my cousins, ex-boyfriends of cousins, current boyfriends of cousins, and I swear a few pets and a beer can. You know who was not in one photo? Me. I am not too macho to admit it really hurt my feelings, especially since I have seen a few nice photos of me with my grandmother floating around. Anyway, enough of this…let’s talk baseball.

So with a full day of MLB ahead of us I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

Top Cash Game Plays

This one is tricky today. At first glance I was all about Jon Lester at home versus the Pirates until I started my research. The Pirates are first in MLB with a .390 wOBA and wRC+ of 145 versus LHP. Ouch, why take that risk in cash games.

Next I thought Felix Hernandez, even with Mike Trout having incredible BVP versus him. Then I read the Angels have a .358 wOBA (2^nd in MLB) and a wRC+ of 119 (1^st in MLB) on the road. Even if it is a pitcher’s park in Seattle I see no need to attack that offense. Did I really just say that about the Angels?

So to both of those guys I say, “No way Jose.”

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

The thing I hate about using Jose Fernandez is my fingers always type Florida instead of Miami much like I tend to type Mike Stanton instead of Giancarlo. I just caught myself doing it again and if you check back through my articles unless my esteemed editor Zack caught them (which he probably did) you might find that mistake more than once.

Fernandez gets a great park shift today with Nationals Park being 22^nd in runs scored and 25^th in HR allowed in MLB. Even though the Nationals seem scary with the mighty Bryce Harper killing everyone he faces, as a team they are striking out 19.6 percent with a .307 wOBA, and are 25^th in wRC+ (86) versus RHP so far in 2016. Fernandez over his last two starts has 18 strikeouts over 12 innings versus the Brewers and Diamondbacks while only allowing three earned runs. He has a 12.84 K/9, keeps the ball on the ground, has a 0.98 lifetime ERA versus the Nationals, and will be the pitcher I use today on one-pitcher sites.

Danger Zone

The current Nationals have a .220 avg. with two HR (Jason Werth, Clint Robinson), seven RBI, and 30 strikeouts over 109 AB off of Fernandez. Of course Bryce Harper is the most dangerous player but even he cannot hit a HR every day.

Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics

The Tampa Bay Rays are the other team along with the San Diego Padres I make sure to use a RHP against each time they face one in DFS in some capacity. Somedays it does not pay off but more often than not it does.

Sonny Gray has looked terrible as of late. I mean bad. I believe Gray is much better than we have seen and I look for him to have a bounce back start versus the crappy Rays today. The Tampa Bay Rays much like the Padres are at the bottom of every offensive category versus RHP. They are striking out 27.1 percent (1^st in MLB), have a .288 wOBA (28^th in MLB), and wRC+ of 84 (26^th in MLB) versus righties. Wait, it gets better. The Rays also cannot hit at home in the pitcher friendly Tropicana Field (26^th in MLB in runs scored) and the .282 wOBA shows it. Can it get better than this? Yes. Over the last seven days the Rays are striking out 28.4 percent of the time and only batting .203. If Gray cannot dominate the Rays today, keeping the ball on the ground 56.3 percent of the time than he is truly done. I would have no problem running him out as my second pitcher in cash games on a two-pitcher site and would suspect his ownership to be low with so many bigger names on the board.

Danger Zone

Historically the Rays have a .186 avg. over 102 AB. The thing that makes Gray scary is regression. Each start his numbers have gotten worse. From April 16 up until now spanning five starts versus the Royals, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox he has allowed 1, 3, 4, 7, and 7 earned runs consecutively. Of course, all of these teams are much tougher than the Rays.

Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).

As always these plays are better to paired with a top option on a two-pitcher site in cash games and GPPs.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

On the other side of the Sonny Gray coin we have Matt Moore facing an Athletics team that is 26^th in MLB in wOBA at .284 and are 24^th in wRC+ at 80 versus LHP. The problem is they only strike out 18.2 percent of the time to go with it. Also, the Athletics hit a little better on the road with a .312 wOBA and have a .265 avg. over the last seven days. Moore gets the same positive park shift I spoke about with Gray pitching in Tropicana Field even though as of late he has been getting touched up a bit, allowing 12 earned runs over his last three starts versus the Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners. But, in this span he also has 17 strikeouts in 16 innings. I honestly believe he just hit a little skid up against a few teams that hit LHP well and fully expect this game to stay low scoring. Vegas also agrees with the low 7.5 expected run total. He makes a great GPP play or complimentary pitcher on two-pitcher sites.

Danger Zone

Not a lot I see here to worry about. We have minimal BVP and it is all positive. In the small sample size, the current Athletics have a .227 avg. versus Moore with no HR.

Joe Ross, Washington Nationals

The last Ross to be this famous in Washington went by the name of Betsy. We all knew Joe Ross was going to be good but no one thought he was going to be this good. As a matter of fact, the Washington Nationals rotation holding its own, even if Tanner Roark got blown up in his last start. Well, as you can already see I believe the best options for SP are in the Marlins-Nationals and Athletics-Rays games.

The Miami Marlins are striking out a measly 18.3 percent of the time and have a decent .332 wOBA versus RHP on the season. They also are ninth in MLB in road wOBA at .343 and are batting .263 over the last seven days. I know all this seems ugly but Ross benefits from the same great pitcher’s park in Washington that Fernandez does even if his home ERA is higher than his road ERA at 4.15. This is where you have to look a little deeper or you would pass right by him. Most of this home ERA was caused in his last start at home versus the Tigers where he allowed five earned runs over six innings. His only other home start was versus the same Marlins on April 10 where he allowed one earned over seven innings while striking out five. I believe by days end the Marlins will get the better of Washington today in a low-scoring affair but I would not hesitate to use Ross in a GPP on FanDuel or as a second pitcher on a two-pitcher site.

Danger Zone

Once again we have very little to go by other than the one start this season. The Marlins lifetime have a .250 avg. over 32 AB with no HR off of Ross. Obviously we have a few hot bats to be concerned about like Christian Yelich, Marcel Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton but he should navigate around them just fine in my opinion. I find the Yelich the most dangerous of the bunch with the platoon advantage.

Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians

He’s back so strap yourself in and get ready for the wild ride that ensues when you use Trevor Bauer in DFS. To be honest, Bauer will cause you to chew all your fingernails to nubs by night's end. He has the tendency to surrender four runs, 10 hits, and walk five batters while striking out 10 leaving you on edge. Due to his propensity to give up hits and walks he is a much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings.

Bauer is at home today facing a Twins team that is striking out 22.5 percent of the time with a decent .323 wOBA versus RHP. Although he does not get a positive park shift with Progressive Field being fifth in MLB in runs scored, this game does, however, have a low 7.5 expected run total with Bauer being the -139 favorite. The Twins also struggle on the road and the .308 wOBA shows it. Over the last seven days they have a low .234 avg. facing a pitcher in Bauer who in his last start has seven strikeouts in seven innings while allowing no earned runs versus the Astros on the road. Bauer can be extremely wild and he is my least favorite of the three in this section but he certainly deserves consideration today.

Danger Zone

Walks, hits, runs, anxiety. Bauer has a 5.23 ERA lifetime versus the Twins with the most dangerous being Oswaldo Arcia who has four HR in 10 AB versus Bauer. You smell a BVP play there?

GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.

Of course, any time you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers

OK, you hear time and time again that in DFS it is a good idea to pick on Zach Davies. But is it? The truth is Davies in Triple-A had decent numbers with an average K/9. It is taking the youngster a little while to catch on and it does not help pitching in the hitter friendly Miller Park that is 11^th in runs scored in MLB. But he is doing the one thing I look for in a young pitcher, getting better. Not only is he getting better, but he is facing the team I use now as a standard for who belongs in the minors and who doesn’t in the San Diego Padres.

The Padres are striking out 25.6 percent (2^nd in MLB), have a low 6.7 percent walk rate, .283 wOBA (29^th in MLB), and are 29^th in wRC+ at 75 versus RHP. This is bad, bad, and more bad. The Padres do not get better on the road coming in at 26^th in wOBA at .295 and 27^th in wRC+ at 78 and are only batting .216 over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Davies is showing improvement. In his last five games he has an ERA of 6.29 while over his last two starts versus the Angels at home (who hit well on the road) and Marlins on the road he has only allowed four earned runs over 11 innings for a 3.17 ERA. His lack of strikeouts concerns me but in a large field GPP for a few bucks, I can tell you now I always take a shot with a RHP versus the Padres at least once.

Danger Zone

The Padres suck but I do like Matt Kemp and Wil Myers again today like yesterday. This is more of a battle of who is worse, the pitcher or the Padres. We will know soon enough.

Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins

I do not think I have ever liked six pitchers in three games before as my favorite plays. But the truth is Tyler Duffey is intriguing. He is a groundball pitcher with an 8.83 K/9 facing a Cleveland team that strikes out 23 percent of the time versus RHP with a mildly scary .322 wOBA. At home the wOBA drops to .319 and they are ice cold over the last seven days with a .218 batting avg. Duffey over his last two starts has 16 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings versus the Tigers and White Sox with a 2.70 ERA. His price is low and I can tell you now he will make a GPP lineup today for sure.

Danger Zone

Duffey has dominated the Indians in the limited sample size we have. They have a .158 avg. with one HR and two RBI over 38 AB.

Good luck today and as always make sure your players are playing. I find the contest selection for single entry on FanDuel deplorable on weekends for the early and late slate so I tend to avoid them. If you are playing on the late slate, you will have little choice tonight between King Felix and Hector Santiago with all the other games being possible shootouts.

Go Dodgers!

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com