For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers, as pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries, and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers, there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up and down seasons, and while I agree that if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.

These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options that for one reason or another are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12 team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.

I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid to late round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks-why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.

Andrew Heaney – LHP – Los Angeles Angels

2015 Stats: 6-4, 105.2 IP, 3.49 ERA, 78 K’s, 1.20 WHIP

Current ADP

Mock Draft Army ADP: 305.4 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)

National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 251.66

FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 26th round (337th overall)

LABR Mixed Draft on February 16, 2016: Drafted 19th round (277 overall)

Availability

As the probable fourth starter in Anaheim, he is not exactly in huge demand in early drafts. He should be a secure starter for the current season, and can be snagged late in most drafts, except in larger/deeper leagues. Unless he blows up in a bad way this spring, he seems locked in for 170 IP.

Upside

He handles left-handed batters extremely well, as should be expected. He is not much of a strikeout guy, but his great control (2.38 BB/9 over 18 starts in 2015) and refusal to let the ball leave the park (0.77 HR/9) both put him in a good position to generate quality starts. Expect his FIP to adjust positively in 2016, as he has generally pitched to an excellent FIP over his career. His BABIP was a bit depressed in 2015 as well, so expect that number to get closer to league average. You should also expect that his ERA and WHIP will be positives for you if he makes it to your roster. Assuming he remains healthy in 2016, he should be good for 30 starts, albeit with only 170-175 innings.

Downside

He needs to work on generating more strikeouts from right-handed batters as his K% of 15.4 in 2015 is not going to do him any favors. As a No. 4 starter, he is probably only going to give his owners 10 wins or so, although if he can push up his inning count as expected, he could provide more value in leagues that employ quality starts to value SPs instead of victories.

Summary

Heaney does not provide a huge upside, except in his peripherals. He will not be a huge source of Ks or Ws, but the ERA and WHIP should play well in the back of your fantasy rotation. If he continues to be available at the very end of drafts, he is a tempting SP5/6 to grab that will not hurt your pitching stats and can in fact provide nice peripheral support for your pitching staff.