Late Round Pitching: House, Heaney & More

No middle relievers this week, two consecutive weeks was enough of a departure from my typical source material of starting pitchers. Not that I denigrate middle relievers; quite the contrary, as I spend my late rounds in drafts accumulating those who I like for their peripherals and high innings pitched totals (presumably, as more and more pitchers go down with tendonitis, torn ulnar ligaments, etc.). This week, however, we have four more starting pitchers that are worth examining, if not actively adding to your fantasy roster.

To spell out some guidelines, this series of articles is going to profile starting pitchers that have an ADP of 200 or better (meaning taken later than pick 200). In a 10 team league, those pitchers would be going in round 21 or later (it would be mid-way through round 16 in a 12 team league). By that point in your draft, you have more than likely filled out your starting offense and picked up an ace and closer, perhaps a couple more pitchers. Your mileage may vary depending on your actual league settings, but you get the general idea.

Please note that the projections for each of the pitchers below are my own, that I create after comparing various sources and adjusting for expected playing time, specifically, innings pitched for starting pitchers. As for the ADP numbers, I am looking at the ADP results our very own Howard Bender is compiling with his Mock Draft Army mocks.

T.J. House CLE ADP: 341.1

House is poised to make the Indian rotation out of spring, and is coming off a stellar second half of 2014 where he posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 10 starts. He does feature a low 90s fastball that can reach 94-95 MPH on occasion, but the problem with that is that right-handed hitters found it with their bats and drove it hard far too often. A slider and change up that were able to fool the righties at the plate led to his improvement, together with an exceptional 3.92 GB/FB ratio. He has good control (1.94 BB/9) that leads to good command, despite a weak 7.06 K/9 in 2014. His peripherals are not going to bowl you over, and the lack of Ks is an issue, but if he can pitch close to 200 innings, a feat I am not banking on (see my projections about a quarter inch below), he could be useful as a SP6/7 or a streaming option.

2015 Projections: 7 Wins/115 K/3.97 ERA/1.28 WHIP over 145 innings

Andrew Heaney LAA ADP: 344.2

Heaney will probably make the Angel rotation out of spring, but is coming off a bad performance against the Dodgers where he gave up six runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings pitched. Still, the Angels are pitching his primary competitor, Nick Tropeano in the “B” games lately, which does indicate a preference towards Mr. Heaney as the starter to make the rotation when the team heads out of Arizona to begin the season. Heaney has good control and generates ground balls (2.15 BB/9 and 1.59 GB/FB ratio for Miami in 2014 over 29.1 innings). Heaney may turn out to be a great SP, but I am not buying in this season. Let someone else your draft go for the hype, such as it is. Just because a pitcher makes the rotation does not necessarily mean he is a good fantasy option.

2015 Projections: 10 Wins/105 K/3.85 ERA/1.29 WHIP over 120 innings

Tom Koehler MIA ADP: 346.1

I like the Miami team this year, albeit with limited expectations. Koehler apparently had locked down a rotation spot even before spring training began, if you listen to his manager, Mike Redmond. That is not a ringing endorsement, as both David Phelps and Brad Hand have pitched well in camp and in the games, but are destined for the pen to start the season. What does Koehler offer that makes him worth drafting? He has a 93 MPH fastball, keeps the ball in the park and has moderate ground ball tendencies. Not a guy I want to roster. Look elsewhere, and let those that have been selecting him as a late, late, late round SP continue to make a mistake.

2015 Projections: 10 Wins/130 K/3.99 ERA/1/39 WHIP over 170 innings

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Kyle Kendrick COL ADP: 702

Kendrick has been tabbed as the Rockies’ 2015 Opening Day starting pitcher, due in part to Jorge de la Rosa suffering a groin injury, and also on the basis of a strong spring showing. He is shutting down the opposition to the tune of a 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 spring game innings. He is a decent ground ball inducer 1.41 GB/FB ratio in 2014), which should help his success pitching at Coors Field. Of course, the other side of that coin is his awful 5.47 K/9 rate from last season, and despite the ground ball tendencies, a 1.1 HR/9 rate in 2014. A 4.64 FIP compared to his 4.61 ERA last year says that he was not unlucky, just not all that good. He features a high 80s sinking fastball and while he throws four pitches, none are considered plus offerings. Thus, I would strongly recommend you avoid adding him to your roster this draft season.

2015 Projections: 7 Wins/100 K/4.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP over 155 innings

Continue to peruse these articles as we try to uncover some late round gems for you to target in your drafts, and allow you to build a formidable starting rotation without sacrificing offense to do so. Also, if there is interest in later round middle relievers, I would be glad to include those pitchers in future articles as well. If you have any questions about starting pitching or fantasy baseball, feel free to contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com.