Fantasy Baseball Mailbag, Week 11

Giancarlo Stanton or Zack Greinke & Carlos Gonzalez in keeper league?
@DukeDiligence

You should all know my position on Stanton by now. I said in the preseason I had no interest in Stanton given the first round cost people were paying for him. Moreover, I warned people not to count on him in Stanton’s 2016 Fantasy Value. No one listened. I had no idea he would be this bad as he’s been a monumental failure. Sure Prince Fielder and Justin Upton have stunk, but given the draft day cost of Stanton hasn’t his performance been even worse? Dude is batting .193 with a .718 OPS as he’s struck out 80 times in 55 games. He’s also missed time, of course, with injury. He’s a disaster of epic proportions right now. He’s still a tremendous talent, and it’s quite possible that he could lead baseball in homers from this point forward though, can’t dispute that. Still, there is no doubt you take the duo here, even in a keeper league. CarGo might get dealt out of Colorado which would hurt, and he is three years older than Stanton, but come on now. CarGo is the equal of Stanton offensively. He’s also destroying him in production this year. Meanwhile, Greinke is still a top-20 starting pitcher. The duo kicks Stanton’s’ butt here.

With J.D. Martinez’s shoulder injury, does Steven Moya get recalled? Is he worth a pickup?
@BMamba12

Martinez is likely to miss 4-6 weeks with a non-displaced fracture of the radial neck of his right elbow (how painful does that sound?).

Moya will indeed be recalled to take the roster spot of JDM. The Tigers also are dealing with an injured Cameron Maybin who has left quad tightness and a wrist issue. Yet again, Maybin just cannot stay on the field. Maybin will play daily when healthy, ditto Justin Upton, but right now there are two open spots out there so the team will certainly be giving Moya a lot of at-bats in the short-term. The 6’6” 230 lbs lefty is batting .281 with a .772 OPS in nine games this season with the Tigers, and he is batting .258 with no homers and a .690 OPS over 66 plate appearances over three seasons in the bigs. Moya hit 20 homers with 74 RBI in 126 games at Triple-A last season but he also struck out a massive 162 times. He’s doing much better this season at Triple-A with a .298 average, 13 homers and 46 strikeouts in 50 games showing signs of emerging. Tough to recommend taking a shot on Moya in a 10 or 12-team mixed league, and it’s likely a stretch to look at him in 15-team leagues as well, but he could, could, pull an Adam Duvall since he owns a similar skillset, but how often does production like that happen out of nowhere?

Colby Lewis flirted with a no-hitter, but what does it mean? CC Sabathia has been on a remarkable run. Aaron Nola has had consecutive bad starts, but don’t freak out. CHECK OUT THE VIDEO.

Would you drop Jose Ramirez for Cameron Maybin or Steve Pearce? I know you like Ramirez.
@btwie0412

I “like” Ramirez because of his positional flexibility (2B, 3B, SS, OF). It’s remarkable versatility actually. However, I’m not a huge fan of his changes to hit .300 or steal 25 bases. The slowdown has started to happen the last 10 as he’s hitting .143 with a .166 wOBA. Still, I would take Ramirez over Maybin who I mentioned above, the reason being three-fold. (1) Maybin can’t stay healthy and is currently hurt. (2) Maybin only qualifies in the outfield. (3) The only real fantasy skill Maybin brings are his wheels, and Ramirez can steal a bag as well.

Is Ramirez better than Pearce?

Pearce qualifies at first base, second base (in most leagues), and the outfield. That’s sweet. He’s also been killing it like a madman this season with an insane .346/.420/.585 slash line. He’s not that hitter, not close, but he was pretty impressive in 2014 lending some hope that he will be able to extend this run. A month ago he was hitting only lefties, but now his work against righties is superb as well (.330/.397/.509). Still, note the following with the 33 year old. (1) His average is .089 points above his career mark. (2) His OBP is .085 points above his norm. (3) His SLG is .138 points above his norm. (4) His .377 BABIP is .055 points above his career best and .085 points above his norm. (5) His 19.8 percent line drive rate is just a point above his norm. He’s a 33 year old who has literally only had one fantasy relevant season to date.

I’ll take a shot on Pearce who is crushing it of late, but it’s a qualified yes on him given the options.

Drop David Peralta for Trayce Thompson in a H2H league?
@timster2340

David Peralta hit .312 with 17 homers and 78 RBI last season in just 462 at-bats. He’s been hurt this season and that has slowed his production, and that has caused people to bail on him. Still, over his last 676 plate appearances he’s batting .299 with 21 homers, 93 RBI, 82 runs scored and 11 steals. What’s wrong with that? Answer – nothing. That’s borderline elite stuff from an outfielder yet folks everywhere seem to want to move on from him. Why? Compare his work in that time to the work of Thompson this season.

The only appreciable advantage that Thompson has, mind you in in 497 fewer plate appearances, is in the homer to fly ball category. Newsflash, there is no possible way that Thompson will keep his mark that high. No one does. The only player who hit the mark last season was Nelson Cruz (30.3 percent). No one did in 2014. No one did in 2013. No one did in 2012. No one did in 2011 etc. It’s just not a sustainable pace, period.

I want Peralta over Thompson for the rest of 2016. He’s more refined, has more experience, and is more likely to improve on his current pace than is Thompson.

Melvin Upton or Kevin Pillar?
@goodhopsbadhops

I spoke about Pillar in the Big 3 Video today.

Upton is a very similar player. He’s a better stolen base option than Pillar, though he’s a worse option in batting average than the younger Blue Jay.

Over the last 14 games, the month of June, Upton has seen his average dip to .232 with a .683 OPS. He’s stolen five bags and gone deep three times to maintain value, but you would have to say that a .232/.254/.429 slash line this season is terrible, though the .683 OPS mark is only just a hot couple weeks off from his .725 career mark. Over his last 154 games Upton has hit 14 homers with 24 steals, but he’s also driven in just 48 batters and scored just 52 times limiting his outlook moving forward.

If the only goal is steals go Upton. If we’re looking for average go Pillar. If looking for the best overall game I’d also, ever so slightly, lean to Pillar.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).