Statistical Nuances from the Nomadby Michael Pichan the Fantasy Nomad Welcome into the realm of Fantasy Football analysis where the focus is on unearthing information that will help your Fantasy Football team gain an advantage over of the competition. Each week, I will dig through the data, so you don't have to, to provide a deeper explanation of what happened, uncover why those things happened, and whether we should expect those things to continue to happen. Before I dig into the stats, I want to answer Fantasy Pros question "Who Gives the Best Fantasy Football Advice?" Well, in Week Three the answer was the Fantasy Nomad. With the help of RotoInfo.com's NFL Lineup Grid I was able to beat over 100 of the top Fantasy Experts in Fantasy Pro's weekly Expert Accuracy Rankings Competition, after finishing in the Top 10 in Week Two. I want to thank Fantasy Pro's for hosting the competition and the nice write up summarizing how I was able to earn top honors in Week Three, which you can check out here: Week 3?s Most Accurate Experts. And, if you are looking for a few Buy Low/Sell High Fantasy options you can find my suggestions, along with other experts' recommendations, in Fantasy Pros featured article Buy/Sell Them Now.   [caption id="attachment_15529" align="alignleft" width="222"]Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated Detroit Lions RB Mikel Leshoure burst on to the scene in Week 3.[/caption]Running Backs
  • Jamaal Charles, a name you will see a lot this week, lead all RB’s in snaps with 68 followed by DeMarco Murrary (61), Mikel Leshoure (the surprise of the week 60), Maurice Jones-Drew (58), then Ray Rice and Darren McFadden (57)
  • Jamaal Charles also topped all backs in carries with 33, followed at a distance by Maurice Jones-Drew (28), Mikel Leshoure (26, in his first game back), and Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson (25).
  • The top pass catching running back was, yes you guessed it, Jamaal Charles, who tied with Trent Richardson with six receptions followed by three way tie between Ryan Mathews, Ray Rice, and Jacquizz Rodgers each with five receptions.
  • The top targeted backs were Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, and Trent Richardson each with seven targets followed by Pierre Thomas (6)
  • Top targeted backs in the Red Zone (RZ) were the Lions RB Joique Bell and Jamaal Charles each with two targets in the RZ.
  • Leading RB’s in terms of total touches was Jamaal Charles with 39 touches (33 carries, 6 receptions), Mikel Leshoure (26 carries, 4 receptions) and Maurice Jones-Drew  (28 carries, 2 carries) tied for 30 total touches, Adrian Peterson had 28  (25 carries, 2 receptions), followed by Arian Foster (25 carries, 1 reception) and Marshawn Lynch  (25 carries, 1 reception) who finished week 3 with 26 touches.
 Stats that Stand Out at the RB Position:
  • Mikel Leshoure: 26 carries for 100 yds., 1 TD and 4 rec. for 34 yds. The Data= 3rd in the league in snaps, 2nd in touches, and he averaged a respectable 3.8 yards/attempt at , sixth in rushing attempts, tied for third in rushing TD's, fifth in targets, and  tied for third in receptions. What to Make of It: So much for easing a player into the lineup. I have spoken before that I felt the two game suspension for Mikel Leshoure would actually be a good thing as it would give him two extra weeks of added recovery time from the injury that he suffered last season. As exciting of a break out game this was for those of you who own Leshoure, I suggest you consider shopping him around. The Lions next eight games are mostly against teams that are in the top 10 in defending the rush (and pass), thus it may be difficult for Leshoure, or any Detroit Lion player not named Calvin Johnson, to put up consistent Fantasy points for your team going forward.
  • Bilal Powell: 10 carries for 45 yds., and 0 TD. The Data= 36 snaps and 4.5 yds/att. in week 3. What to Make of It: Powell's time on the field has steadily increased as he was on the field for only 19 snaps in week one, but 32 in week two and 36 last week. The increased time on the field for Powell suggests that Rex Ryan and the Jets coaching staff are gaining confidence in Powell as he has averaged 4.0 yds/att compared to Shonn Greene's poultry 2.8 yds/att. In addition, Powell saw just nine less rushing snaps then Greene in week three . It is still uncertain, at the moment, if Powell will significantly cut into Shonn Greene's workload, but it is a situation worth monitoring.
Wide Receivers
  • Calvin Johnson led all wide receivers in snaps (96), Dwayne Bowe (91), Titus Young (89), Nate Burleson (86), followed by a three way tie for 5th between Eric Decker, Donnie Avery, and another top five finish from Demaryius Thomas all saw 79 snaps.
  • Target leaders: Dwayne Bowe (15), Reggie Wayne and Santonio Holmes (14), followed by a three way tie at 12 targets between Brandon Lloyd and two Lions Nate Burelson and Calvin Johnson.
  • Reception leaders: Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson (10), followed by a six way tie for second with nine receptions were Brandon Lloyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin, Santonio Holmes, AJ Green, and Ramses Barden.
  • Top Red Zone Targets were Julian Edelman, Stevie Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Nate Burelson, and Denarius Moore each having three targets apiece in the Red Zone.
  • Yardage leaders: AJ Green (183), Calvin Johnson (164), Santonio Holmes (147), Wes Welker (142), then Ramses Barden (138).
  • YAC'em, top receivers in Yards After the Catch (YAC): Percy Harvin (third straight top five finish with 71 YAC),  Antonio Brown and Wes Welker (65), AJ Green (61), and Jeremy Kerley (59).
Stats that Stand Out at the WR Position:
  • Nate Burleson: 10 rec., 69 yds, and a TD. The Data= 12 targets What to Make of It: Burleson tied Calvin Johnson for a team high 12 targets in Week Three after coming off a week where he only saw 2 targets. I would chalk up the low Week Two target totals as a result of a tough match up versus one of the top defensive teams in the league in the Niners, as Burleson saw eight targets in Week One. Many thought this may be the season that Titus Young surpassed Nate Burleson in playing time and production, but old man Burleson isn't ready to relinquish his role to anyone as he has about 30 more snaps, 10 more targets, and nine more receptions then Titus Young this season. At this point Burleson is ownable in most leagues, especially over Titus Young, but I would only consider Burleson a match up play from week to week due to the Lions difficult schedule going forward.
  • Michael Crabtree 6 rec., 40 yds, and 0 TD The Data= Third straight week of seven or more targets and six or more receptions to go along with a 82.6% reception rate. What to Make of It: Michael Crabtree has led the Niners, or tied for the lead, in targets each of the first three weeks of the 2012 season. In addition, Crabtree is healthy and has improved his reception percentage by about 20 percentage points from last seasons 64.7%. Unfortunately, Michael Crabtree has yet to reap the fruits of a touchdown this season, and of his 12 career touchdowns, five of them have come against the Rams, a team the Niners will play twice after their Week Nine bye. In the meantime, Crabtree has climbed his way into being a weekly option in most PPR leagues, but not yet standard leagues.
Quarterbacks
  • Another Manning led all QB's in drop backs, but this week it was Peyton with 52, followed Ben Roethlisberger (49), the rookie Andrew Luck (46), Aaron Rodgers (39), then a three way tie for fifth between what may seem like some unlikely names including, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and Brandon Weeden (Cassel and Weeden are in the top 10 in drop backs after three weeks of play).
  • Matthew Stafford had the highest Week 3 completion percentage at 78.6%, Eli Manning 77.1% came in second, followed by Matt Ryan (75%), Ben Roethlisberger (73.5%), and Joe Flacco (71.8%)
  • Passing Touchdown leaders: Ben Rotethlisberger, and Matt Schaub each with four TD's
  • Total Passing Yards: Ben Roethlisberger (384), Joe Flacco (382), Jake Locker (378), Tom Brady (335), and the Red Rifle Andy Dalton (328)
  • Completions of 20 yards or more: Joe Flacco (5), Peyton Manning (4), and four QB's tied with three completions of 20 yards or more, two rookies Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and two veterans Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.
  • Total Dropped Passes by receivers Peyton Mannin (7), Tom Brady, Brandon Weeden, and Ryan Tannehill (5)
  • NFL Passer Rating Leaders were Andy Dalton (132.9), Kevin Kolb (127.4), Ben Roethlisberger (123.2), Joe Flacco (117.7), then Matt Schaub (115.3)
  • Sacked the most in week three were Aaron Rodgers (8), Sam Bradford (6, who I expect to see on this list week in and week out), Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick (5), then Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, and Drew Brees (4)
Stats that Stand Out at the QB Position:
  • Kevin Kolb- 26 for 37 322 yds., 2 TD, and 0 INT The Data= 3 wins, third best NFL Passer Rating, and has had the fewest dropped passes, (tied with Joe Flacco), on the season. What to Make of It: Kevin Kolb has more wins this season than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning combined and to paraphrase Ross Miles The Cardinals have won 9 of their last 11 with S(u)k-olb at QB & not much at RB, due to one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The NFL may be a passing league now  as there has been 26 300-yard passing games through the first 3 weeks, but the three remaining unbeaten teams, including Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals, have yet to have a QB throw for over 300 yards. As well as Kolb has played, I see some regression in his future as the Cardinals have one of the toughest schedules going forward as they will face the Niners twice, and games against the Bears, and road games versus the Falcons, Jets, Seahawks, Packers, and Vikings, to name a few.
  • Shaun Hill- 20 for 29 206 yds, 1 TD,  1 INT The Data=In one minute and sixteen seconds of playing time Hill threw for 172 yds. and 2 TD's. (Stafford played first 58 mins. posting 278yds. and a TD). What to Make of It:  In Hill's brief appearance he was able to score more Fantasy Points then some big name QB's including Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, and maybe not so surprisingly, Mark Sanchez. Hill's performance, coupled with his success back in 2010-11 where he played in 11 games with the Lions accumulating over 2,600 passing yards to go with 16 TD's shows that he is a capable NFL QB and if Stafford were to miss some time Hill would make a viable fill in replacement for Stafford owners (and maybe for anyone who is relying on Mark Sanchez).
  • Josh Freeman- 37 for 35, 245 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT The Data= Freeman is currently ranked outside the top 25 amongst Fantasy QB's on the season. What to Make of It:  Freeman has been less then stellar this season, as he has accumulated a measly 491 yds. passing, only 4 TD's, and is averaging an interception a game. Despite the lack luster start to the season, I believe Freeman would make a good bye week filler if you own, or usually play, Ben Roethlisberger or Andrew Luck and is a better option this week then Tony Romo. Freeman and the Bucs play a Redskins defense that has already lost some key defensive players, has allowed the second most passing yards, and by far the most passing TD's this season. And, the Redskins are coming off a week where they allowed passing TDs of 73, 59, and 48 yards, thus making Josh Freeman, Vincent Jackson, and possibly Mike Williams viable starting options in most leagues.
Tight Ends
  • Tony Moeaki led all TE’s in snaps (97,but only 33 were passing) followed by Brandon Pettigrew (93/53 passing), Rob Gronkowski (83/41, Gronk is the only player of this group to finish in top 5 in snaps last week as well), Heath Miller (76/41), then Anthony Fasano (75, but only 27 of those snaps were passing plays).
  • Brandon Pettigrew lead all TE’s with 12 targets, Greg Olsen and Tony Gonzalez (11), Heath Miller (10), and Jacob Tamme and Anthony Fasano tied for fifth in targets (9)
  • Tony Gonzalez led all TE’s in receptions (9), Heath Miller and Brandon Pettigrew tied for second (8), followed by Greg Olsen and Fred Davis (7)
  • Greg Olsen led all TE's in Red Zone Targets (RZ) with four, followed by Heath Miller and Kyle "The Red Zone Nosed" Rudolph (3)
  • Only 11 TE's scored a TD in week 3 as season low so far.
Stats that Stand Out at the TE Position:
  •  Rob Gronkowski: 2 rec., 21 yds., and 0 TD. The Data= career high 93 snaps, 41 were passing plays yet, Gronk was only targeted three times resulting in just two catches. What to Make of It: Gronk's time on the field, during passing plays, has doubled since week one, but after a nine target, six reception week two Gronk was all but ignored in week three. Only twice last season did Gronk get targeted less then four times.  Gronk's lack of production in week three is most likely an anomaly, and however disappointing his totas maybe so far, he did have a TD in each of the first two weeks to go with 60 or more yards receiving. At this point, any negative perception of Gronk's production is just over reaction, which seems to have been the case for many Patriots players this season.
  • Greg Olsen: 7 rec., 98 yds, and 0 TD. The Data= A team high 11 targets and 7 receptions, which was two more receptions then Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell combined and has a 70% catch rate on the year. What to Make of It:  Olsen was target seven times in week one, two in week two, and eleven in week three. Overall, it appears that Olsen may receive more targets, on average ,this season. (Olsen had only five games of seven or more targets last season, a season that saw him receive four or less targets in each of his last six games). Unfortunately, Oslen has only one touchdown in his last 11 games dating all the way back to week ten of last year. Thus, Olsen is a fringe TE play in deep PPR formats only.
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