By Howard Bender

Here we are in NFL Week 8 – almost to the midpoint of the regular season and almost two-thirds through the fantasy football regular season. Your playoff picture is starting to take shape and those without bragadocious records of 6-1 or 5-2 are facing must-win games more and more. But what’s great about Week 8 is that we’ve got almost half a season’s worth of data which, in football, is a pretty good sample size. The law of averages takes control and even with injuries, a defense’s strengths and weaknesses can still be accurately calculated. So with that, I’m going to continue this “By the Numbers” series as it’s going to be helpful when making those final lineup decisions. We’re going to look at the top three starts and sits at the skill positions based on what the numbers are telling us and hopefully you’ll have enough to understand why you should start Michael Floyd over Mike Wallace this week.

One caveat before we get there. I’m not in the habit of telling you that you should start Drew Brees or Calvin Johnson. If the guy is a no-brainer, then you start him each and every week. I would expect you to know that already, and if you’re even thinking of sitting him, it better be for a real good reason. The only way a big marquee name will be listed here is as a ‘sit’ because of a particularly poor match-up. But even then, if you remember last week’s column when I said the numbers didn’t look good for Megatron but that I would start him anyway because he’s….well, he’s freakin’ Megatron, and look what happened. So if you’re wondering why I don’t have Demaryius Thomas listed here when he’s facing a defense that ranks 25th in the league against No. 1 wide receivers, you have your answer.

Now on with the show…

Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em

Robert Griffin III, WAS – The Redskins/Broncos game has been highlighted by most pundits for its potential fantasy explosiveness and given the breakout we saw last week, RG3 is as much a part of that potential as Peyton Manning is. He may not have the receiving weapons Peyton has, but given the fact that the Broncos defense allows an average of 320 passing yards per game and has given up 14 touchdowns through the air, the Skins receivers should do just fine.

Eli Manning, NYG – Sure, he’s thrown 15 interceptions this seasons, but last week Eli went a whole game without a pick and finally helped get the win monkey off the Giants’ back. He may be feeling a bit of swagger now as he steps in against a soft pass defense that allows 312 yards per game through the air and has allowed 14 passing touchdowns. Of course he’s going to throw a pick or two that may drive you insane, but another 300-plus yards with a couple of TDs like he did in Week 5 should help ease your pain.

Matthew Stafford/Tony Romo, DET/DAL – It’s like two for the price of one here as a pair of gunslingers face off against each other and a pair of horrible pass defenses. Each defense allows more than 280 yards per game and both have given up double-digit touchdowns. Ground games should be at a minimum here as the two just start chucking the ball around the field all day.

Sit ‘Em

Terrelle Pryor, OAK – I’ll admit, he’s done a better job than I thought he would and the fact that he’s lasted as the starter here in Week 8 says a loit about him. But am I starting him against the Steelers this week? Hell no. Pittsburgh’s pass defense holds the opposition to fewer than 200 yards per game and while their pass rush hasn’t yielded too high a number of sacks, their linebackers coming in should limit Pryor’s running room as well.

Jason Campbell, CLE – While most normal people wouldn’t even think about starting Campbell this week, I’ve received a few emails inquiring about him since I said the Browns would upset the Chiefs this week. Allow me to clarify. While yes, I believe the Browns will shock the NFL with an upset here, it’s more based on the defense than anything else. Campbell is who he is (a whole lot of yuck) and the Chiefs pass defense holds the opposition to under 200 yards per game. Not to mention, the quarterbacks have a 64.9 passer rating against them this season. While that number might be above-average for Campbell, it still stinks in the grand scheme of things.

Chad Henne, JAC – The 49ers defense is definitely softer than it once was, but they are still pretty formidable in the secondary. San Francisco holds quarterbacks to just 219 yards per game and has given up just nine passing touchdowns all year. Henne may have Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon on his side, but the Niners corners are going to be on them like white on rice.

Running Back

Start ‘Em

Frank Gore, SF – Reports of a bum ankle were greatly exaggerated earlier in the week when he got a maintenance day and skipped practice Wednesday. Trust me, you want Gore in your lineup for this one. The Jags look pathetic out there and are giving up an average of 153.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground this year. In addition to the early work he’ll enjoy, remember there’s also all that clock to kill in the second half.

Lamar Miller, MIA – The absence of Vince Wolfork has help New England right to the top of the crap heap with regard to run defense and they’re giving up an average of 127.1 yards per game. Only four touchdowns allowed thud far, but that number should be increasing moving forward. Miller may lose some carries to Daniel Thomas early in the game but he should be able to break a few good runs; enough to warrant handing him the ball more often.

Pierre Thomas, NO – I can’t remember if I’ve ever endorsed this guy, but a match-up against the Bills cushy run defense is almost too tough to pass up. Darren Sproles will see the passing downs but, believe it or not, the Bills actually do well against the running back screens/check-downs. Thomas should find himself a few holes in the defensive line to push through and he should become a worthwhile flex play as he finds himself doing some endzone dancing at least once.

Sit ‘Em

Adrian Peterson, MIN – He’s been bothered by a hamstring issue and he rushed for his jersey number last week. All is not well in Minnesota and the return to Christian Ponder is only going to allow the Packers defense an extra man or two in the box to contain AP. They already hold the opposition to an average of just 79 yards per game and have given up just three rushing touchdowns, so beware this matchup. Start him over the usual disgustingness that we all have at the RB position, but if you do have a decent back with a better match-up, you may want to give it some thought.

Alfred Morris, WAS – The bottom line is that Denver’s run defense may not be that great, but they jump out to such a fierce lead so early that teams are just forced to abandon the run which is why they allow just 77.1 yards per game. Couple that with Morris losing some goal-line work to Roy Helu and you’;ve got disaster written all over his start this week.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis/Giovani Bernard, CIN – Neither one looks like a good start this week as the Jets defense is their strength and they’re allowing just 77.7 yards per game and have allowed just five rushing touchdowns this year. On top of that, their pass defense ranks second in the league against running back screens and check-downs, limiting them to an average of just 26.7 yards per game via that route. Park ‘em on the bench this week in favor of…well, almost anyone.

Wide Receiver

Start ‘Em

Reuben Randle, NYG – Of course, Victor Cruz will see an abundance of targets, but Randle has emerged as a major target recently and the Eagles woeful pass defense actually ranks 26th in the league against teams’ third wideouts and are giving up an average of 92.4 yards per game to them. He saw 14 targets when they played last in Week 5 and had 96 yards with two touchdowns. Look for an encore performance.

Kris Durham, DET – The Cowboys rank 30th in the league against teams’ secondary receiver and while they may only give up 62.1 yards per game to them, the ranking is reflective of the number of red zone catches and touchdown grabs they get against them.He’s seen 29 targets over the last three games and with Megatron getting most of the attention in coverage, Durham should be freed up for a big day.

Michael Floyd, ARI – It isn’t usually discussed, but the Atlanta pass defense really isn’t that good. They give up an average of 284 receiving yards per game and have allowed 14 touchdowns through the air this year. Even better is the fact that while they’re struggling to contain Larry Fitzgerald, Floyd should be burning them up and down the field as well. The Falcons rank 28th in the league against opposing No. 2 wideouts and are giving up nearly 80 yards per game to them. Look for Floyd to take full advantage of the soft match-up.

Sit ‘Em

Mike Wallace, MIA – While the Patriots run defense has been garbage, their pass defense seems to be holding its own lately. The hold the opposition to under 250 yards per game, have allowed just seven touchdowns through the air this year and rank sixth in the league against opposing No. 1 receivers, holding them to just 41.9 yards per game. Wallace should be pissing and moaning about his lack of work in this one come post-game press conference time.

Justin Blackmon, JAC – Just as Henne is listed up above, Blackmon deserves a mention here as well. Not only does the Niners defense hold the passing game to an average of 219 yards each week, but they also rank second against opposing No. 1 receivers, holding them to roughly 52 yards per game. The Jags will be trying to play catch-up and airing it out, but Blackmon is not going to be the target that finds the success.

Lance Moore/Kenny Stills, NO – Another two for the price of one as many are looking to these two as great sleepers/bye week replacements and I’m here to tell you that you may be barking upo the wrong tree here. While the Bills defense sucks…and I’m speaking in an overall sense here…they do have one decent strength and that’s containing the secondary wideouts. The Bills actually rank first in the league against opposing No. 2’s and have held them to an average of just 43.9 yards per game. How do you like your sleeper pick now?

Tight End

Start ‘Em

Jermaine Gresham, CIN – While the Jets defense is one of the better in the NFL, they actually rank 29th in the league in defending against the tight end and give up an average of 60.9 yards to the position. Gresham may lose a few targets to rookie Tyler Eifert, but he should be the one who sees the majority of snaps and therefore has the greater opportunity to do some damage.

Jordan Reed, WAS – He’s been one of the most added free agents out there recently and with 15 targets, 13 catches, 192 yards and a touchdown over his last two games, you can understand why. Now add that to the fact that the Broncos rank just 26th in the league against the tight end and give up an average of 82.4 yards per game to the position and you’ve got a great recipe for fantasy deliciousness.

Anthony Fasano, KC – Here’s a nice sleeper pick for you this week. With Joe Haden likely covering Dwayne Bowe (if he plays) and the other Chiefs receivers not really showing much, Alex Smith may have to lean on his tight end a little more in this match-up. That’ll work, especially with the Browns ranking 31st in the league against opposing tight ends and allowing 60.1 yards per game to the position.

Sit ‘Em

Jordan Cameron, CLE – While the numbers for Cameron are still rock solid, his last three weeks haven’t exactly been what many were hoping for after his explosive start to the season. Well, it doesn’t look like it’s going to get much better this week as the Chiefs defense ranks second in the league against the tight end position, limited them to just 35.2 yards per game this season.

Heath Miller, PIT – He hasn’t been the same guy we’re used to seeing out there on the field just yet as he continues to work his knee back into game shape, and this week looks to be another rough match-up for him. While I hate saying nice things about the Raiders defense, I would be remiss if I didn’t warn against Miller this week as the Raiders are giving up just 42.3 yards per game to the position. Maybe next week he’ll be a better play.

Jimmy Graham/Ben Watson, NO – Whichever one actually gets the start just might be irrelevant as neither is looking very good this week. Graham continues to be hobbled by the ankle injury, so even if he plays, he’s going to have his issues. If Ben Watson gets the start, then we have to take into account his ability, or lack thereof, when making the decision. So while neither is in great shape right now, it looks even worse as the lowly Bills, in addition to clamping down on No. 2 wideouts, also rank first in the league at defending the tight end. So far, this season, they have held opposing tight ends to just 36.5 yards per game. Lots working against this tandem so you may want to be looking elsewhere for help.