Fantasy Baseball:Statistical Nuances from the Nomad-Braves SP Paul Maholm

Statistical Nuances from the Nomad: Braves SP Paul Maholmby Michael Pichan (@FantasyNomad) [caption id="attachment_16259" align="alignleft" width="266"] Man I love pitching for the Braves![/caption]

Quick! Name the top three Fantasy Starting Pitchers going into Week 4 of the Fantasy Baseball season. The top two may come easy based on recent, high exposure starts. They are Matt Harvey and Yu Darvish, but the third one may come as a surprise, Braves starter Paul Maholm. Unlike Harvey, Darvish, and others who have appeared in the top five, Maholm has been a fixture there despite the fact he could not be any more different than many of the high heat hurlers, who are racking up strikeouts left and right. The questions become, are Maholm’s performances a fluke? What has brought about Maholm’s resurgence? And, will he regress?

Let’s look at the first question, are Maholm’s performances a fluke?

Maholm has now posted an ERA under 3.70 the past two seasons dating back to 2011. And prior to last season, Maholm had only one other double-digit win season for his career (2007 he was 10 and 15). The poor win/loss record can be attributed somewhat to how Maholm pitched, but may have had more to do with the fact that he spent the majority of his time pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, Maholm has the luxury of pitching for a Braves lineup that currently leads the National League in home runs and are top three in slugging percentage and OPS. Maholm is an innings eater who has compiled over 176 innings pitched in all but one of his last seven seasons and has 16 or more quality starts in four of his past five seasons. Based on history, it’s not unreasonable to expect Maholm to continue pitching deep into games but this time with abundant amount of run support, more times than not. Accordingly, Maholm seems to be in a great position to continue to rack up the W’s.

What has brought about Maholm’s resurgence?

Maholm introduced a cutter in 2010 but only threw it about 3% of the time. Then, in 2011 he relied more heavily on the cutter throwing it 11% of the time, followed by 17% of the time last season. This season Maholm has cut back slightly on throwing the cutter, having thrown it only 7% of the time, but has added a slow curveball to his arsenal, which he is throwing 2% of the time. It is not a coincidence that Maholm’s improved success parallels the time frame that he began using the cutter, as each year since 2010, his strikeout and ground ball rates have steadily increased (see chart below).

As you can see, Maholm’s recent successes are not a product of the ever popular phrase, “small sample size.” Maholm has a good mix of pitches to help offset his below average Four Seam fastball, which only averages around 88 mph, and has pinpoint control, which aids him in keeping hitters off balance, and that, contrary to some perceptions, is what is key to being an all-around quality pitcher that can get strikeouts and pitch deep into games. Which brings us to our third and final question...

Will Paul Maholm regress?

The short answer is yes, but the long answer will show that even with a little regression Maholm could still finish this season as a top-20 starting pitcher which would make him  one of the best draft steals of 2013. It is unlikely, ok probably impossible, that Maholm will be able to maintain a strand rate of about 94% (last year’s MLB average strand rate was 72%), nor keep hitters BABIP around the Mendoza line, or have a HR/FB rate of 0.34 and an ERA of about 1.00. All that said, it looks like Maholm’s base line will be his 2012 final stat line, as opposed to what many people may of thought would be an outlier year. The Braves are an improved team and so is the rejuvenated Paul Maholm. So, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Maholm is a 20 game winner this season with a low three ERA, a slightly increased strikeout rate, and a 1.20 WHIP. Like a fellow league mate of mine, and contributor at Fangraphs.com, Ben Durino said in his article “Buy High on Paul Maholm,” Maholm is worth buying into, and buying high on. But hey, if you wait a bit for Maholm to have a bad start, you will likely not have to pay a premium for him as most owners are fearing the regression, hence his availability in the first place.

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