Matt Cain has rebounded from a couple of rough outings at the start of August by walking one batter over his last three starts. During those three starts, all victories, Cain has allowed a total of four runs to drop his ERA to 2.83. and his WHIP to 1.01. Both numbers would be career bests and slightly better than his 2.88 and 1.08 marks from last season. There isn't a more stable guy who calls the pitcher's mound home.
No one talks too much about Ross Detwiler who has spent time in the bullpen and starting rotation for the Nationals. People should be paying more attention. Ross isn't likely to blow anyileone away with his 5.58 K/9 mark, or that middling 2.26 K/BB ratio, but he's been very successful this season over his 26 appearances (20 starts). Detwiler has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 127.1 innings, and those aren't numbers anyone should turn their nose up at. Part of the reason for his success is the ability he possesses to induce the ground ball. Ross is sporting a 1.68 GB/FB ratio thanks to an impressive 53 percent ground ball rate. That leaves Detwiler with a 15.6 percent line drive rate. That's just too low. That number is bound to rise, his career mark is 20.4 percent, and when it does that ERA is going to go up, potentially a run from where it currently resides. Now I'm not predicting a catastrophic failure in the month of September, but I'm merely stating that it would be wise to realize that as well as Detwiler has pitched this year he has been a bit fortunate.
Derek Holland tossed 198 regular season innings last year before adding another 24 in the post season. Has that big time innings pitched increase of his contributed to his struggles this year that have led to a mere 8-6 record with a 4.92 ERA in 128 innings (he threw only 123 innings in 2010)? Surprisingly to most, he's actually pitched just as well as he did last season even though his ERA has literally gone up a full run from last year. After a 7.36 K/9 mark last season that mark rests at 7.24 this season. He's cut a half batter off his BB/9 rate leading to a career best 2.64 K/BB ratio. He's also holding batters to a .239 batting average this season after last year's .262 mark. Moreover, his WHIP, which has been 1.35 or higher each of his first three seasons in the big leagues, is down to 1.20. If he finishes strong you should look at Holland as a solid arm you will likely be able to roster on the cheap in 2013.
Phil Hughes had a nice outing in his last start allowing two runs in seven innings against the White Sox. Still, the guy has a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP along with a 12-11 record for the Yankees. When are people going to realize that their heart has higher opinion of Hughes than it should?
Chris Sale is 15-4, the second most wins in the AL (
David Price and
Jered Weaver have 16), with a 2.65 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's also racked up 150 Ks in 153 innings. Clearly there are other arms worthy of Cy Young consideration in the Junior Circuit, but Sale has to be in the mix. As I posited earlier in the year, wouldn't it be a trip if Sale were to win the award in a season in which he was demoted to the bullpen for a week? I know, how much of an oddity would that be? Sale is 7-2 in his last nine games for the White Sox.
Johan Santana's season is done as the Mets have shut him down due to issues with his lower back. The Mets want to be very careful with the lefty that they still owe, get this, $25.5 million next year and 25 million in 2014 (with a $5.5 million team buyout that will certainly occur). Santana has been told that the team doesn't want him to throw until January of 2013, so that is what will occur. Santana, who finished the year with one of the worst five game runs in the history of the league (at least six earned runs in each outing, an a 15.63 ERA in that time), ended the year with a pathetic 4.85 ERA through 21 starts. Over his first 16 outings that number was 2.76. How quickly it went south. As great as Johan was to start the year, his health woes have got to be something that you pay close attention to. Johan last threw 200-innings in 2009, didn't throw a single pitch last year, and made it through just 117 innings this year before he was shut down. Despite how strong he performed early in the year, his meltdown should be considered a harbinger of the future. No, I don't think he's a 4.85 ERA type of hurler, but I'm also pretty sure the days of a sub 3.00 ERA are in the past.
Tyler Skaggs will remain in the D'backs rotation. The 21 year old was solid in his first start allowing just three hits over 6.2 innings. Skaggs fared very well this season in the minors as he went 9-6 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 22 starts at Double and Triple-A. The thirteenth ranked prospect according to Baseball America, this 2009 first round draft pick is ready to succeed at the major league level right now with his nearly K per inning stuff. Remember though the case of Trevor Bauer, the other dynamic option the D'backs have (sorry Patrick Corbin). You remember the future superstar who posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over four starts earlier this season with the club from Arizona? The game just isn't that easy and it's not always a straight line to success. Speaking of the D'backs, Wade Miley won Wednesday night throwing eight innings of shutout ball to lower his ERA to 2.80. Toss in a 1.11 WHIP and you've got a guy who is now 14-8. The club from Arizona has one of the best young group of arms in the game. Period.
Jacob Turner, the young right hander who is now with the Marlins (he's formerly of the Tigers), will remain in the rotation moving forward according to Ozzie Guillen. Turner allowed three runs in his last start for the Marlins, and the 21 year old has a bright future. Still, he's posted a 7.55 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in seven big league starts, not to mention that he's failed to average even six strikeouts per nine innings in those handful of starts. He's obviously worth a look in NL-only leagues, but it's a stretch to think that he should be viewed as a significant weapon in mixed leagues down the stretch.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray's baseball analysis can be found at
BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the
BaseballGuys' Twitter account.
