Adam Dunn is killing you. Manny Machado is excelling. David Ortiz & Joey Votto are struggling with health. Trevor Plouffe and Pablo Sandoval are ready to return from injury. Buster Posey â the best hitter in baseball?
Adam Dunn has killed it this year with 31 homers, 76 RBIs and 65 runs scored looking like the same guy who hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-2010 before last years epic failure (.159-11-42-36). However, despite all the parade's that people are throwing, I think it needs to be pointed out that Dunn is hitting .203 folks, and that's just brutal (it's also .038 points below his career mark). His 0.49 BB/KK rate is solid, but his 34.4 percent K-rate would be the second worst mark of his career and just the second time he had a mark over 31 percent (last year was his bottoming out at 35.7 percent). When you are striking out a third of the time you come to the plate there's simply no way you're going to be able to produce a league average batting mark. If you've built up a big league in the power categories thanks in part to Dunn, now might be the time to deal him so that you can help make up for that average that he has tanked for the last four months.
Manny Machado, doing his best to become Mike Trout II, is on fire for the Orioles. Through four games he has three homers, seven RBIs, five runs scored an a 1.500 OPS. The fervor is building to the point that even those in 10 teamers are dropping established major league All-Stars like Jimmy Rollins to add Machado (granted Rollins is hitting .183 the past month so it's not like he's a must start at shortstop if you are in a 10 team league, but you can't just cast him adrift either. At least I wouldn't since I'm pretty sure a shortstop who hits 18 homers, drives in 60, scores 90 and steals 25 bases is someone you would want on your club. Obviously, that's the pace that Rollins is on). Slow your roll folks. There is only one Mike Trout. Hell, Mike Trout isn't even Mike Trout (there's simply no way he can sustain this pace. I'd be shocked if he kept it going over the last two months, and there's no way he will maintain it in 2013). Trout has made us forget that this game can be humbling (ask Trevor Bauer this year or Anthony Rizzo last year). Machado will slow, substantially, so don't be rash and do something you will regret in four weeks.
David Ortiz was supposed to have returned from his Achilles injury over the weekend. He didn't. In fact, he's still experience tenderness and pain in the area, and it's not at all certain when he will return to action. In fact, it might be a week or two before we see him back on the field. This situation is yet another reminder about how injury time frames are best guesses and not outright locks. Take the case of Joey Votto. Thought to miss 3-4 weeks with a knee issue, the Reds were hopeful that he might be healthy enough to return to action by now given that his last game was July 15th. Not so much. Not only is he not ready to go, but he had to have an additional cleanup procedure on his knee Friday, and that is going to add at least 7-10 days to his recovery schedule meaning we may or may not see him on the field at any point in August. Make sure if you're dealing for an injured slugger that you realize that the timetables for injuries are not set in stone, because if you made the mistake of paying for seven weeks of Ortiz or Votto you paid too much since neither is gonna be close to playing that much the rest of the way.
Trevor Plouffe has been activated from the DL where he had been wasting away for about four weeks because of a thumb issue. Plouffe left behind a line that included 19 homers in just 259 at-bats, but there are warning signs here. First, his 22 percent HR/F rate is pretty darn high and likely to regress. He's hitting only .259 and has a .241 career average. He has a mere .261 BABIP, .267 for his career, which would indicate that if his HR-rate were to dip his batting average would be in trouble. Let's not also forget that he is coming off the DL with a hand issue, they are notorious for sapping a players power, not a good thing when you consider that the last time he hit a long ball was before fireworks on July 4th (his last homer was July 3rd as he's gone 13 games without a big fly and he had only three RBIs in that time as well).Buster Posey is the best hitter in baseball. OK, that's nuts to say when you have guys like Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera out there, so how about I say it like this: since the All-Star break there hasn't been a better hitter in baseball. No hyperbole there either. Over his last 27 games, spanning 98 at-bats, Posey has 44 hits leading to a .449 batting average. Four-forty-nine. He's also gone deep nine times while producing 33 RBIs â in 27 games remember. He's also getting on base at a .521 clip with a .796 SLG that has led to a 1.317 OPS (how amazing is it to think that in 1941 Ted Williams hit .406 with a .553 OBP and 1.287 OPS over the course of 143 games?). Buster is out of his mind, he's actually been hitting .361 over his last 59 games, to boost his season long numbers into the stratosphere at .332 with 19 homers, 76 RBIs an a .953 OPS. He's the number one catcher in baseball and he's shown no ill effects, none, of that horrific leg injury he suffered last season.Pablo Sandoval (strained left hamstring) is likely to be activated early this week for the Giants. Hitting .299 with a .843 OPS on the year, Sandoval has pretty much been performing at his established career level when he's been on the field (.306 average and .855 OPS). He's not exactly impressive with his run production â eight homers, 33 RBIs, 36 runs scored â but it should be noted that he only has 234 at-bats on the year so if we pro-rate his effort out to 550 at-bats all of a sudden his effort looks pretty impressive: .299-19-78-85. With his swing at everything approach he may never be a 30 home run hitter, but whenever he's out on the field it would be pretty wise for you to have him active in your fantasy lineup.
Ben Sheets allowed five runs, four earned, in a six inning loss Sunday. He's still got a 4-2 record and 2.13 ERA for the Braves, but he's only struck out five batters over his last 13.1 innings and that WHIP has risen to 1.24. He's been amazing, but don't just think you're going to get eight more superb starts from him the rest of the season.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray's baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys' Twitter account.
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