Stock Watch Risers

  • Mallex Smith OF, TB- The Rays recalled Smith heading into the weekend after Kevin Kiermaier suffered a hip injury that will sideline him until at least August.  Against the A’s Smith went 8-for-14 with five runs, one home run, three RBI and four stolen bases.  Smith figures to be the Ray’s leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching and is a must add given his elite stolen base and run scoring potential.

  • Kole Calhoun OF, LAA- Many figured the injury to Mike Trout would be the nail in the coffin for the Angels season and the fantasy prospects of those on their roster but Kole Calhoun has proven quite the opposite to be true.  In the 50 games prior to Trout’s injury Calhoun had hit .209 with five home runs and 15 RBI.  In the 14 games since Trout’s injury Calhoun has hit .360 with five home runs and 15 RBI.  Calhoun has shown to be a power bat and run producer at times in the past and he has taken on the mantle with Trout out of the lineup.

  • Jeff Hoffman SP, COL- The Rockies rookie has been lights out since being called up, going 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA over five games (four starts).  Over those five appearances Hoffman owns an outstanding 11.3 K/9 with an even more impressive 1.0 BB/9.  His 2.33 ERA is accompanied by a solid 2.48 FIP and 2.67 SIERA which suggests he is the real deal. Maybe he most impressive stat of all has been the fact that he has made 3-of-4 starts in Coors field and has allowed just three earned runs over 20.1 innings.

Stock Watch Fallers

  • Gerrit Cole SP, PIT- Things have just not been right with Gerrit Cole for the second straight season but unlike last year where injuries befell the Pirates starter it is the home run ball that is crushing Cole this season.  Cole currently owns a 19.2% HR/FB rate which is more than double his career mark.  Things have been at their worst for Cole over his last four starts where he has allowed 23 earned runs on 39 hits over 19.1 innings.

  • Billy Hamilton OF, CIN- Hamilton got off to a pretty solid start to his 2017 season, hitting .255 with 37 runs, one home run, 17 RBI and 28 stolen bases over the first two months of the season.  June however has been awful as the Reds speedster is hitting just .143 with three runs, zero home runs, zero RBI and zero stolen bases.

  • Tyler Glasnow SP, PIT -The inevitable finally happened with Glasnow as the Pirates demoted him to Triple-A on Saturday after he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits over four innings during his Friday start.  The Pirates rookie was never able to command the strike zone and it lead to a 2-6 record with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP.  Barring injury it would not surprise me if Glasnow remains in Triple-A til rosters expand in September as he just did not look ready for The Show just yet.

Buy or Sell?

Buy

Jake Arrieta SP, CHC-  The Cubs starter is off to a poor start to his 2017 season, going 6-4 with a 4.68 ERA over his first 13 starts.  I am a believer in a second half turnour out of Arrieta if he can limit the home run ball as his 1.36 HR/9 and 15.3% HR/FB marks are the worst of his career as a member of the Cubs.  Some positive stats with Arrieta are his 9.74 K/9 which is the best mark of his career and 2.84 BB/9 which is better than his 2016 number.  Jake is also getting somewhat unlucky with the balls in play as he currently sports a .321 BABIP which is nearly 50 points greater than any average during his Cubs tenure.  Buy in on a second half turnaround for Arrieta and you can probably get him at a bargain given his current performances.

Masahiro Tanaka SP, NYY-  This is an ugly one I know and it would not shock me if he was even floating around the waiver wire in your league at this point in the season as the Yankees starter is 5-6 with an awful 6.07 ERA on the year.  Like Arrieta, the biggest issue with Tanaka this season has been the long ball as he is allowing 2.23 HR/9 which is nearly a full home run higher than his career mark and is sporting a 22.8% HR/FB ratio which is also not very good at all.  Walks have also hurt Tanaka this season which has lead to some big innings when combined with the home runs he is giving up. At this point it probably wouldn’t take anything to get him from an owner in your fantasy league but he does sport a 4.15 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA so he is not totally pitching as poorly as it would seem.

Manny Machado 3B/SS, BAL- Let's face it, nobody would have projected as we enter the third month of the baseball season that Machado would be hitting .218 yet here we are.  The fantasy owner that drafted Machado likely is not doing too well this season unless they were the fortunate soul who also drafted Aaron Judge so now is a good time as ever to try and pry Machado away.  To be fair here Machado is getting a bit unlucky.  Most notably the man has a .231 BABIP on the season which is well below his .304 career mark.  He currently owns a 40.1-percent hard contact rate which is the best mark of his career and an 18-percent soft contact rate which is the second best mark of his career.  He is also hitting more fly balls than ever before while maintaining a HR/FB rate above his career mark.  The biggest discrepancy and the one thing I can point to regarding his low BABIP would be the dramatic drop in his line drive rate as that sits at just 12.2-percent which is the worst mark of his career while his groundball percentage is sitting at 43.6-percent which is a six percent increase from last season.  I anticipate Machado to start hitting more line drives and given his hard contact rate that should quickly boost his BABIP and potentially lead to more home runs and counting stat increases.

Sell

Avisail Garcia OF, CWS-  Garcia is off to a career year so far this season, hitting .333 with 35 runs, 10 home runs, 45 RBI and two stolen bases.  While those numbers certainly are great for the 26-year old outfielder here are some other things you should know as well.  Garcia is sporting a 22.4-percent strikeout rate while walking just 3.7-percent of the time which is on pace to match his career worst mark.  With his free swinging ways Garcia has managed a healthy .404 BABIP which is well above his .332 career mark.  Now not all high BABIP’s indicate regression but in Garcia’s case it is notable that he is hitting 50-percent of his balls in play on the ground.  Garcia also owns a career best 21.3-percent HR/FB rate despite hitting just 26.7-percent of his balls in the air.  That is a very good mark for a relatively low fly ball rate when compared to league average.  If he is unable to start hitting more fly balls or line drives that BABIP is going to drop and so with it his batting average and likely the rest of his numbers as well.

Lance Lynn SP, STL- The Cardinals starter returned after a year layoff due to Tommy John surgery and is off to a solid start, going 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA over 12 starts to this season.  By now you know the trend of this article so with the good comes the bad and the reason why I would be looking to sell. First and foremost Lynn is currently boasting a 17.6 HR/FB rate which is the worst mark of his career by far.  He has been incredibly fortunate enough to own a .201 BABIP against him so far this season as it has limited the big innings as he is owns a very poor 3.41 BB/9.  With his 2.88 ERA Lynn is sporting a 4.90 FIP, 4.36 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA to indicate is pitching much more like a starter with a mid-four ERA than a sub-three ERA.  I would look to move on from Lynn if you could while his value is still high.

Andrew Cashner SP, TEX- Call me Captain Obvious if you want but despite all his peripheral numbers indicating a massive decline is coming Cashner is still figuring out ways to have solid surface numbers with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.  Now here’s what you should know if you don’t already know.  First, Cashner is sporting a terribly low 3.99 K/9.  This is well below his career mark of 7.24 and is a real mystery as to why all of a sudden he is no longer missing bats.  With that awful K/9 he boasts a 4.13 BB/9 which is dreadful in its own right. Cashner’s 3.17 ERA is matched by a 4.69 FIP and a 5.85 SIERA which is one of the worst marks in all of baseball.  Maybe in deep leagues and AL-only leagues you have no other choice but I would be moving on from Cashner ASAP.