Stock Watch Risers

  • Odubel Herrera OF, PHI- As quickly as Herrera’s stock was falling it is now surging and I am firm believer in his recent turn around.  Over the last seven days Herrera is hitting .529 with five runs, two home runs and nine RBI.  Herrera was somebody I had really liked heading into the year and tabbed him in the FA Draft Guide as my First Time 20hr/20sb candidate.  He is less than 50 percent owned in standard leagues and those needing OF help should check their wire and pick him up.

  • Jimmy Nelson SP, MIL- Nelson has allowed just one earned run over his last 15 innings while striking out 21 over that span but more importantly he has also walked ZERO hitters.  Command is really the only thing that holds Nelson back but over his last four starts he has walked just two hitters.  His K/9 is at a career best 9.09 and his BB/9 is also at a career best 2.24.  Trust the turn around folks and pick up Nelson if he’s available in your league.

  • Wilson Ramos C, TB- Ramos was enjoying a career year with the Nationals in 2016, hitting .307 with 22 home runs, 80 RBI and 58 runs over 131 games.  A torn ACL ended his season and the Nationals moved on from him in the offseason.  Ramos is now with the Rays and could return as soon as next week for Tampa where he figures to not only be their primary backstop but see time a DH when the team wants to give him a breather from behind the plate.

Stock Watch Fallers

  • Amir Garrett SP, CIN- Boy the luster on Garrett wore off quickly huh? In his return start to the Reds he allowed eight earned runs over 2.2 innings on Sunday.  Over his last three major league starts Garrett has allowed 21 earned runs over 11.2 innings.  He should not be owned in any mixed league formats and realistically his value is only in deep NL-only formats but I wouldn’t recommend starting him there either.

  • Matt Carpenter 1B, STL- Think about this for a second. The last time Matt Carpenter had an RBI was on May 21.  The Cardinals have since played 13 games in which Carpenter has failed to record an RBI.  During that 13 games span he is hitting just .152 with zero extra base hits while striking out in 28 percent of his at bats.  Carpenter is hitting just .213 on the season which has lead to him being a downright disappointment for fantasy owners.

  • Joe Ross SP, WSH-There was plenty of pre-season hype around Joe Ross as a late round sleeper in most formats after he turned in a solid 2016 which saw him go 7-5 with 3.43 ERA over 19 starts.  Unfortunately Ross has been a disaster this season and in his last two starts he has allowed 11 earned runs over seven innings.  Ross is slated to get another start but this could be his last chance to stay in the rotation.

Buy or Sell?

Jeff Samardzija SP, SF

Samardzija turned in a solid but underwhelming 2016 season, going 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA over 203.1 innings for the Giants.  That season came off an atrocious 2015 campaign as a member of the White Sox which saw him go 11-13 with a 4.97 ERA over 214 innings.  Maybe even more disappointing than the ERA and Win/Loss record over those two seasons would be the sub par K/9 rates as Samardzija posted totals of 7.3 and 6.8K/9 respectively.  Those two marks are the two lowest of his career to this point.  With the decreased K/9 came increases in his BB/9 as both seasons were above 2.0 BB/9.  If you took a quick look at Samardzija’s 2017 season you would see his 2-7 record and a 4.29 ERA and think that he is once again having a disappointing season but this is where you are wrong and why I am buying on Samardzija going forward.  First off, his K/9 is sitting at a career best 10.6 while his BB/9 is at a career low 1.2.  Huge upgrades in each department.  While he does own a 4.29 ERA his FIP is 2.89, his xFIP is 2.72 and his SIERA is 2.88.  All of those marks are All-Star caliber numbers.  Now sure Samardzija is still giving up home runs at an above average rate but the rest of his peripheral stats look great and are relatively comparable to his career year back in 2014 when he finished the year with a 2.99 ERA as a member of the Cubs and A’s.

Ervin Santana SP, MIN

Big Erv has picked up the 2017 season right where he left off 2016 which saw him go 4-4 with a 2.65 ERA while striking out 81 over 88.1 innings in the second half.  Through 12 starts this season Santana is 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP BUT that is really where all the good numbers end with him.  A deeper look into his peripheral stats show a pitcher with a career low 6.4 K/9 and a career worst 3.5 BB/9.  His shiny 2.44 ERA is accompanied by a 4.64 FIP, 4.88 xFIP and a 4.15 SIERA.  Santana’s impressive start is aided by a ridiculously low .153 BABIP which is well below his career mark of .282. ALL of these numbers scream regression for Santana and that regression is coming soon as he has already allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last six starts.  Trade Santana now before it is too late.