It’s Week 7 of the fantasy baseball season and with it comes the next edition of the Fantasy Alarm Stock Watch.  This week I break down some players who have seen their stock rise and fall over the past week.  In the Buy & Sell section I highlight a duo of pitchers who are both having solid starts to their 2017 campaign but only one that I am buying into.

Stock Watch Risers

Keon Broxton OF, MIL- Broxton was a popular late round sleeper heading into the fantasy season but a disappointing April which saw him hit just .191 with one home run and six stolen bases saw owner's cut bait.  May has been a different story for Broxton however as he is hitting .362 with three home runs and three stolen bases since.  Broxton is a player that offers up both 20 home run potential and 30+ stolen base ability and his recent hot stretch should have him added in all formats.

Justin Bour 1B, MIA-  Bour found himself off to a slow start to his season as he finished April hitting just .222 with four home runs.  He has enjoyed the month of May much better, having already hit four home runs to go with a .318 batting average over 14 games.  Bour has 30 home run upside and hits in a powerful Marlins lineup that boasts Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna to give some protection.

Nate Karns  SP, KC-  The ERA may not be too impressive right now but Karns is starting to turn a corner as the Royals starter has allowed just four earned runs over his last 17.1 innings.  Whats even more impressive is the number of strikeouts Karns is racking up as he has totaled 29 K’s over that 17.1 inning stretch.  Karns has a solid xFIP of 3.21 which suggests he is getting pretty unlucky with the home run ball but that number should drop back down to career norms given his favorable home venue.

Stock Watch Fallers

Anthony Rizzo  1B, CHC- Boy things are not going well for Rizzo to start 2017.  The Cubs first basemen and borderline first round fantasy pick is hitting just .213 to start the season with six home runs and a lowly .734 OPS. Rizzo is getting a bit unlucky thanks to a .216 BABIP but he is also has the lowest hard contact rate of his career at just 28.2-percent.

Todd Frazier 3B, CWS- Frazier is just 2-for-21(.095)  over the last seven days and is hitting a saddening .173 over the first 28 games of the season.  Batting average was never expected to be Frazier's strong suit in the fantasy realm but fantasy owners were not expecting things to be this bad.  Making matters worse is his .594 OPS as Frazier’s home run ability is the reason he was drafted in all formats in the first place.

Matt Harvey SP,  NYM- I was not a fan of his coming into the season yet fantasy owners still took a chance on him given his draft value and nostalgic upside but Harvey is a safe drop in all league formats.  He has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 14.2 innings while walking 13 and striking out just 9.  Harvey was once considered the Dark Knight of the Mets but those days are long gone.

Buy or Sell?

Alex Wood SP, LAD

Stop me if you have heard this before but injuries to the Dodgers rotation bumped Wood from the bullpen into a starting role just a few weeks back for Los Angeles.  Since that time Wood has been nothing but stellar and he could have even more impressive numbers if not for the pitch count restriction that were placed on him while he built up stamina.  As a starter this season Wood owns a 2.67 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and an incredible 1.53 FIP.  While all of those stats are impressive what really blows me away is that as a starter this season Wood owns a 13.06 K/9 over 30.1 innings.  He is striking out nearly 35-percent of the batters he faces.  Wood has flashed this upside before during the 2014 season with the Braves where he owned a 2.78 ERA and a K/9 of 8.91 over 35 game (24 starts) but he is on a totally different level right now and I am buying in.  It is worth noting that injuries limited him to just 14 games in 2016 but he looks healthy and pitching at an elite level.

Gio Gonzalez SP, WSH

Gonzalez is off to a strong start to his 2017 season,going 3-1 with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP while striking out 41 over 51 innings. Those numbers certainly look solid and don’t get me wrong, they are solid but a deeper if you take a deeper look into his production you will see that he is bound for regression.  First, while his ERA is 2.47 he owns a FIP of 4.98 which indicates he is getting pretty lucky here.  Gonzalez currently owns a 7.24 K/9 which is the lowest of his career and is paring that off with a 4.41 BB/9 which is his worst mark since 2009.  So Gio is striking out less guys than ever and walking more guys which is never a good thing.  On top of that he currently owns a 91.4-percent LOB% (Left on Base) which is practically unheard of.  For comparison Gonzalez’s career LOB% is 73.3-percent.  If you own Gonzalez I am looking to move him pretty much as soon as possible because I fear the roof is going to cave in on him sooner rather than later.