Lots of moving and shaking this week with the MLB Trade Deadline passing Monday. Matt Moore moving to the NL is a win for fantasy owners. Jay Bruce going from a hitter haven in Cincinnati to a less friendly home park in New York is a loss. Jonathan Lucroy finally gets to play in a pennant race, but switching leagues for a hitter can be tenuous. One thing is for sure, there was plenty of movement. Even last week’s highlighted hitter Matt Kemp packed his bags and headed east for Atlanta. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to look upon the new landscape with a fresh set of eyes.
Here are the trends, matchups and information you need to know for Week 18 in the world of DFS.
PLAYER AT PEAK SALARY TO AVOID:
Jonathan Lucroy ($4.9K Draft Kings)
As I mentioned earlier, switching leagues is no easy task. Sure, Lucroy may get a bounce of adrenaline when thrust into a pennant race, but we’ve seen players fail just as easily such as fellow ex-Brewer teammate Carlos Gomez just last trade deadline. Lucroy is a terrific hitter, but his DraftKings salary is too high for a catcher who now must learn a whole new pitching staff. That alone may be a huge initial distraction to his offensive game. It’s more important in reality to get familiar with his new staff, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners. Therefore, I would steer clear for now.
PITCHER PRICED BELOW VALUE:
Jon Gray COL ($8.4 DraftKings/$7.1K FanDuel)
It would be the equivalent of fantasy suicide to start a pitcher in Colorado, but Jon Gray is proving to be the exception to the rule. His home ERA of 4.22 isn’t earth shattering but his 1.08 WHIP there is impressive. As a contrarian cheap arm, Gray has big time strikeout appeal regardless of location. His FPPG average has been remarkably consistent and the savings his salary provides can actually allow for heavy Colorado investment tonight and this weekend. Best of all, in GPP play his ownership percentages will be low based on old habits of avoiding Rockies arms at home like the plague. Gray, in fact, may be the cure to what ails your fantasy roster.
HITTER PRICED BELOW VALUE:
Hernan Perez MIL ($2.9K FanDuel)
The Brewers may have cashed in their chips to build for the future, but that doesn’t mean the Brew Crew can’t offer us some DFS help right now. Hernan Perez is hitting .370 with an OPS over 1.000 over the last week and is a brilliant cheap corner bat with Colorado games in play. His power may be a tad fluky considering is track record, but his speed is for real (4 SB’s over that same span). Perez should be a low risk/high reward investment this week while his bat is red hot, especially this weekend in Arizona.
TARGETING TEAMS:
The Texas Rangers may be obviously appealing as an offense at home, but they’re still a top 10 run producer away from Arlington. They benefit a great deal from playing in two hitter friendly road parks as well this week in Baltimore and Houston. Rangers’ bats will be nice fades from Rockies, Dodgers and Marlins in Colorado this week. The Detroit Tigers are a top 10 run producing offense at home and they face the dysfunctional White Sox and reeling Mets this week. The Tigers lineup will also get a bounce when J.D. Martinez rejoins the team after his recent DL stint.
The Yankees face two of the best strikeout staffs in baseball this week back to back with the Mets and Indians. DFS teams can’t handle swings and misses and considering how hot and cold the Yanks offense has been this year, it’s probably best to look elsewhere for offense this week. The Phillies and Nationals may also be looked at negatively against a stingy Giants staff that just made a new acquisition in Matt Moore. Their team ERA of 3.68 is 6th best in baseball.
Here’s a look at tonight’s Relative Position Value per Dollar Lineup (RPVPD) for DraftKings. RPVPD is the Fantasy Black Book’s DFS player evaluation tool. For more Optimal Lineups head to FantasyAalrm.com for the DFS Playbook.
POS | PLAYER | OPP | FPPG | SALARY |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P | P
| LAD@Col | 18.1 | $8,400 |
|
P | P
| Pit@Atl | 16.4 | $9,000 |
|
C | Pit@Atl | 6.0 | $2,800 |
| |
1B | StL@Cin | 5.4 | $3,400 |
| |
2B | CWS@Det | 9.2 | $4,300 |
| |
3B | LAD@Col | 9.5 | $5,300 |
| |
SS | Tex@Bal | 9.3 | $4,400 |
| |
OF | LAD@Col | 8.9 | $5,000 |
| |
OF | Was@Ari | 8.6 | $4,600 |
| |
OF | KC@TB | 6.8 | $2,700 |
|
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.
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