Oftentimes, a top heavy slate of pitchers results in owners settling on what seems like the “sure thing.” They pay up for the big name and end up tying 20 percent or more of their overall budget into one player. But in the words of the immortal Admiral Ackbar from Return of the Jedi, “It’s a TRAP!” You see, now that FanDuel no longer demerits your offensive players for outs, nailing the pitcher slot is no longer paramount.
This particular sort of slate is even harder to deal with when you factor in a night like tonight when the Rockies are in Colorado. Two sets of offensive players already possess inflated salaries based on park factor making roster construction complicated. On DraftKings, it becomes even more challenging because you need not one, but two viable pitching options while assembling a strong lineup of bats. The best way to find a starting point and avoid any value traps is by using our old friend Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD).
Here’s the RPVPD for tonight’s slate on DraftKings:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
21.1 | 0.317 | $ 6,400 | $303 | 0.582 | |
22.5 | 0.404 | $ 7,000 | $311 | 0.571 | |
15.9 | -0.008 | $ 5,400 | $340 | 0.532 | |
14.5 | -0.095 | $ 5,100 | $352 | 0.515 | |
16.6 | 0.036 | $ 5,900 | $355 | 0.510 | |
23.5 | 0.467 | $ 8,500 | $362 | 0.502 | |
22.4 | 0.398 | $ 8,400 | $375 | 0.483 | |
18.0 | 0.123 | $ 6,800 | $378 | 0.479 | |
15.6 | -0.026 | $ 7,200 | $462 | 0.364 | |
22.2 | 0.385 | $ 10,600 | $477 | 0.342 | |
15.1 | -0.058 | $ 7,300 | $483 | 0.334 | |
23.2 | 0.448 | $ 11,500 | $496 | 0.317 | |
9.6 | -0.401 | $ 4,900 | $510 | 0.297 | |
15.5 | -0.033 | $ 8,900 | $574 | 0.209 | |
10.9 | -0.320 | $ 8,700 | $798 | -0.100 | |
4.0 | -0.750 | $ 6,600 | $1,650 | -1.274 | |
1.8 | -0.888 | $ 7,400 | $4,111 | -4.665 |
Is it impossible to consider a pitcher starting in Colorado? Ninety-nine percent of the time probably. However, Kenta Maeda has given up just one earned run in his first three major league starts. Drew Pomeranz of Padres went into Colorado and went unscathed through five innings last week, so it’s not an impossible task. Maeda has the kind of repertoire that theoretically plays in the environment and the Rockies are missing Charlie Blackmon. If you are assembling multiple tournament lineups, Maeda should be strongly considered in one of them. He’s a risk, but his ownership rates will be very low and his RPVPD is very high. That could make for a big night.
The other top guys are two former Colorado arms looking for resurrection in new homes. Jhoulys Chacin has been strong in his first two starts of the year with the Braves and the Mets lineup is prone to run hot and cold (with swings and misses abound). Juan Nicasio has been a little up and down, but his bad start was on the road against an American League team so take that with a grain of salt. Both offer upside and value for their cost.
If you’re going to pay up for an arm, Felix Hernandez is the most cost effective pitcher and he’s facing a struggling Angels offense. Hector Santiago will give Felix a run for his money on the other side, but it’s hard to choose his side of the battle. Steven Matz has been done a disservice because his first start (which came after an 11-game layoff) has really set back his early FPPG average. The matchup against the Braves and his terrific performance last week against the Indians warrants serious attention.
It’s not impossible to start Jose Fernandez in cash games tonight. He’s still in the positive RPVPD by a fair margin (+30%). But with so many games in prime offensive locales (COL, CIN, MIL and ARZ), it’s shaping up to be a night of high scores. Getting a “good enough” outing from your starter, may indeed be good enough after all.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.
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